US Open 2022, Semifinals, Friday, 09.09.2022
The US Open 2022 has only just begun – and already we are moving with big steps towards the final! The women are only one step away, there was no real favourite death here.
On Friday night, the best player in the world will play against the number six, so you can’t complain about a lack of suspense. Will the top seed prevail in the end?
Unlike usual, we find odds at Betway that don’t read so differently.
In my Swiatek Sabalenka tip, I will therefore analyse exactly what speaks in my eyes for a victory for the Pole!
Iga Swiatek making it to the semi-finals is of course no surprise. Or… is it? After her triumph at the French Open, the young Pole had to pay a little tribute to her many titles.
At Wimbledon, she surprisingly lost in the 3rd round 4-6, 2-6 to Alize Cornet. The world was amazed, having now seen that Swiatek can also lose. Quarter-final, eighth-final, eighth-final, after that things did not go smoothly.
But Swiatek is a top player, one who can show her best side again at the US Open. She has never made it past the round of 16 here in New York, and now she could hit the big time.
Neither against Jasmine Paolini (6-3, 6-0) nor against Sloane Stephens (6-3, 6-2) did she have any serious problems, also in the 3rd round her 6-3, 6-4 against Lauren Davies was very commanding. The only wobble: the round of 16.
It didn’t look good at all against Jule Niemeier, after a 2-6 in the first set she was also behind in the second! However, she recovered from her poor performance to collect a 6-4 and then put the German even at 6-0.
Against Jessica Pegula in the quarter-finals, Swiatek finally won 6-3, 7-6. She allowed 22 break chances in her last two matches, which is unheard of from her. Of course she is playing a strong Grand Slam, but not a perfect one.
The odds in the Bwin app say something similar. A narrow 1.50 to 2.70, Swiatek had already achieved a much bigger lead. She is very familiar with Aryna Sabalenka, having met her three times in 2022.
Doha, Stuttgart and Rome, quarter-finals, finals and semi-finals? The matches all had a certain explosiveness. The Pole never gave up a set. The only defeat against Sabalenka: at the WTA Finals 2021 with 6-2, 2-6, 5-7.
Sabalenka will therefore know: I certainly won’t meet a favourite opponent! The 24-year-old already reached the semi-finals in New York a year ago, and now she wants to land the big one in the Big Apple.
She lost one more set than Iga Swiatek at the US Open. For the Belarussian, this is a very commanding performance, as she is usually known for her intense, close matches. She first celebrated smooth victories against Catherine Harrison and Clara Burel.
She had to take the third set in both the 2-6, 7-6, 6-4 against Kaia Kanepi and the 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 against Danielle Collins. Sabalenka has unimagined fighting qualities, a lost first set does not mean the end of the match.
But what she conjured up on court in the quarter-finals was particularly strong. 6-1, 7-6 against Karolina Pliskova, she did not give the Czech a single break chance! Although Sabalenka is one of the top players on the tour, she has yet to win a title in 2022.
My Swiatek Sabalenka Tip
Iga Swiatek is indeed beatable! Her opponents have been competing against her with this knowledge for a few weeks now. Nevertheless, the world number 1 seems to be the most stable on the road in New York.
Of course, we also have to praise the performance of Aryna Sabalenka, who only gave two sets. But she has never been in a final at a Grand Slam. The experience as well as the direct comparison clearly speak in favour of Swiatek, which is why I am also betting:
Swiatek wins against Sabalenka!
