ATP Masters in Shahghai, Round of 16, Wednesday, 10/11/2023
It’s still a relatively young Masters, one that hasn’t been allowed to happen in the last three years! The concentrated world elite has gathered in Shanghai, and they are now fighting for the places at the top in the round of 16.
Wednesday will see a duel between the number 7 in the world and the number 12, which promises the greatest possible excitement. While the better placed player is ahead at Bet365, I now reveal in my Paul Rublev tip why I definitely trust the “underdog” to win the set!
It’s been four years since the Masters was last held in Shanghai. At that time Daniil Medvedev rejoiced, becoming the first Russian champion in the tournament history since 2009, when it was first held.
There will definitely be no repeat of that success this year, as Medvedev surprisingly dropped out early against Sebastian Korda. Can compatriot Andrey Rublev perhaps step into the breach for him?
The 25-year-old will celebrate his birthday in a few days, so he could give himself a present in Shanghai. In Beijing he was not at all convincing, after a narrow victory over Cameron Norrie he was defeated early on by Ugo Humbert.
In Shanghai he already had two wins, but both times he made it more exciting than necessary. First, he beat Quentin Halys 6-4, 7-5, finishing on a whopping 92% won points on first serve and not surrendering a single break chance.
A little later, it was the turn of the next Frenchman, Adrian Mannarino. The service statistics were a little weaker, but once again Rublev did not allow his opponent to break.
6-3, 6-0, this result was definitely one to his liking. Now it’s the sixth direct duel against Tommy Paul, so both already know each other very well.
The Russian leads the direct comparison 4-1, which should boost his confidence ahead of the sixth meeting. By the way, three of the five matches had three sets, so it’s usually not boring here.
And so I’m not surprised that our bookmakers have opted for the stronger placed player, but the average odds are not too far apart with 1.48 to 2.60.
Tommy Paul, of course, knows what a strong opponent he will now be presented with. He also knows that a Russian opponent from the Asian Tour is by no means a positive omen for him.
In Beijing, he was dismantled by Daniil Medvedev right at the start with 2-6, 1-6 and had no chance at all. At least he was spared such an early exit in Shanghai.
After the clear 6-3, 6-0 in the 1st round against Sebastian Ofner, he faced a tough battle against Arthur Fils, which he could win very narrowly with a 6-4, 6-7, 6-4.
A clear win and a very close result against a Frenchman? In the end, then, Paul and Rublev put in very similar performances in the Asian metropolis and could thus definitely be considered on a par.
The last time the US American made it past the round of 16 at the Masters in Canada was around two months ago, when he was defeated by Jannik Sinner in the round of the last four.
My Paul Rublev Tip
Does Tommy Paul have enough power on Wednesday to win the tough match against Andrey Rublev? Both players belong to the top of the world, but the Russian is holding his own a bit further up the field.
In my analysis I could find basically similar results, but in my eyes the slight advantage goes to Rublev. However, I think a lot of Paul, and so I decide for the following tip:
Paul grabs a set against Rublev!