Miami Masters, round of 16, Tuesday, 25/03/2025, 4:00 pm
After the opening defeats in Doha and Indian Wells, things are going much better for Novak Djokovic at the start in Miami. The most successful player of all time won the first two rounds in straight sets.
Now a familiar face awaits him in the round of 16, Lorenzo Musetti. He has faced the Italian on the court many times before. In my Musetti Djokovic betting tip, I’ll tell you why I think the supposed underdog can at least win a set. Oddset has the right odds for you.
At the Australian Open, Djokovic had to withdraw from the semi-final against Alexander Zverev due to injury. The 37-year-old was already injured against Carlos Alcaraz. After two difficult matches in Doha and Indian Wells, things are going better in Miami.
With the two-set victory against Camilo Ugo Carabelli, he even set another new record, moving past Rafael Nadal with his 411th Masters victory. Will it even be enough for the 41st title at the 1,000 level in the end?
After Carlos Alcaraz’s early exit, the Serb is considered the top favorite alongside Alexander Zverev. Before the Argentine, Djokovic took out Rinky Hijikata (6-0, 7-6) from the field. Now the first major hurdle awaits in the eighth final.
Musetti had his most successful year last year. He first attracted attention on grass, only losing to Novak Djokovic in the semi-finals at Wimbledon, and then won the bronze medal at the Olympics.
Who beat him in the semi-finals there before? That’s right, Djokovic! The two tennis stars, who have strong returns, have already played each other eight times. They played each other twice on the clay of Paris in 2024, and four times in total in the French capital.
However, the record is devastating from Musetti’s point of view. Only in Monaco was he able to trip up the legend. He wants to improve his 1-7 duel record on Tuesday. In the top sports betting apps, he is listed as the underdog with odds of 3.25. Djokovic starts the match with 1.33.
I don’t see Djokovic as clearly ahead, which is why I definitely see value in Musetti winning the set. A bet with which we almost double the stake if it is successful. For one thing, I don’t currently see Djokovic at his best and his opponents in Miami weren’t the big hitters.
Carabelli primarily plays on clay and Hijikata is just entering the top 100 of the world rankings. No comparison to Musetti, who has yet to set highlights in 2025, but has not left the court without winning a set in any match this year.
He lost to Arthur Fils in the first Masters of the year. In Florida, he got off to a flying start with two wins against Quentin Halys and this year’s Montpellier and Adelaide champion Felix Auger-Aliassime, thus cracking the world’s top 19.
Now he has to hold his own against the record Miami champion, who, like Andre Agassi, has won the Masters six times. Statistically, hard court is the Italian’s weakest surface, but he has proven his strong form in recent rounds.
He had 14 break chances against Auger-Aliassime alone. He should cause Djokovic problems on his return over a few phases. A good alternative bet is over 20.5 games from Tipwin, a betting provider where you can top up your credit via PayPal, as with Oddset.
Musetti has already had to play three sets three times, and we have also seen two tiebreaks in the last two encounters. I definitely do not expect a quick march for either of the two stars here. Therefore, the 1.55 odds are worth considering.
My Musetti Djokovic Tip
Djokovic has now won two matches after two defeats. However, these successes should be taken with a grain of salt given the quality of his opponents. Musetti will demand a lot more from him. At the Grand Slam level alone, he has had to go to a fifth set against the Italian twice.
Besides, Musetti has already beaten a two-time tournament winner this year and is currently in really good form.
I expect that Djokovic will at least lose a set to a better player again after the defeats against Matteo Berrettini and Botic van de Zandschulp in Doha and Indian Wells!
My Musetti Djokovic prediction: Musetti to win a set.
