Men’s US Open in New York, 2nd Round on Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 5:00 p.m.
I deliberately waited until the first round of the US Open was over before placing my planned long-term bet on the defending champion to win the tournament. After all, I wanted to see if “Carlito’s” four-month break would show.
I’m now confident that the world No. 3 will make it at least to the semifinals. My Faria vs. Alcaraz pick is therefore, unsurprisingly, 3-0 for Alcaraz at 1.80.
His Portuguese challenger in the second round tonight (2:00 a.m.) shouldn’t be underestimated—after all, Faria did reach the round of 16 in Cincinnati! However, he shouldn’t be able to keep up for long against the Spaniard, who is playing better than expected.
Faria vs. Alcaraz AI Predictions:
Our data model has done its own analysis and shared its findings with me in the form of its generated Faria-Alcaraz AI prediction. We both agree that the defending champion will win, but there are slight differences of opinion regarding the final score.
Our digital tennis guru sees a positive return on investment in the set bet at 3:1 for Alcaraz at odds of approximately 3.25. After all, this is only the Spaniard’s second match since mid-April.
My take: If you find a really good odds boost for this Faria vs. Alcaraz bet, go for it! However, I hardly noticed any weaknesses in “Carlito” during the opening match against Safiullin!
Predicted Chance of Winning:
| Faria to Win |
Alcaraz to win |
| 10.5% |
89.5% |
The logic behind placing this bet again is the same as it was against Safiullin: Once the Spaniard gets into a rally, he rarely makes mistakes. Very few superstars on the tour can hold their serve against him for long!
Besides, Faria isn’t invincible either. His 16 double faults on his own serve against Brooksby were horrendous and should create plenty of break points against Alcaraz, who is incredibly strong on the return.
What You Need to Keep in Mind When Betting on Faria vs. Alcaraz
- Service-game struggles for Faria: I see serious problems with the Portuguese player’s serve; Jaime Faria committed a staggering 14 double faults in his first-round match against Jenson Brooksby.
- Enormous Energy Expenditure in the First Round: The Portuguese player had to work extremely hard for his opening-round victory and covered about 1,000 meters more on the court in the first round than Carlos Alcaraz did in his match against Roman Safiullin.
- First-ever meeting: The upcoming match offers no historical points of comparison; the two pros are facing each other on the ATP Tour for the very first time.
- The underdog’s staggering error rate: Faria showed clear lapses in concentration in his groundstrokes at the start of the tournament and committed a total of 53 unforced errors in the first round, while Alcaraz, by comparison, made only 27 unforced errors.
