NBA Playoffs 2022 on Saturday, 23.04.2022
One thing is clear: The New Orleans Pelicans could pull off a real surprise against the Phoenix Suns. By that I don’t mean just another Game 3 win, but even the advancement of the Pels, who were still considered heavy underdogs at the beginning of the series!
I’m pretty happy with my picks so far in this early stage of the playoffs! But in my Suns Pelicans prediction for Game 2, I sank – to stay in basketball lingo – a real three-pointer from downtown.
The betting companies did not want to know anything about a surprise victory for the Pelicans! And in Game 3, I will explain to the reader why the underdog will hurt the Suns again! Because on the board, the underdog is the boss in the ring!
Phoenix is the top favourite to win it all according to verified betting sites like Bet365! No other franchise has been so convincing in the regular season and all players were fit in time for the playoff start – what more could you want as a Suns fan?
But against the supposedly easiest first-round opponent, the Arizonans have struggled immensely so far – and this in both games, even if they managed to pull their heads out of the noose at the last moment in Game 1 thanks to an outstanding Chris Paul.
But in the following rematch, the inferiority at the board fully showed through. With another clear rebound ratio of 43:33 in favour of the underdogs, not even Chris Paul could save the Black Violets!
One statistical insight, which I already shared with my readers in my prediction for the last encounter and which was decisive for my Suns Pelicans tip, cannot go unmentioned this time either.
The Suns are a complete team that can win in ten different ways and can also cope with a rebound deficit – at least as long as they cannot secure less than 40 free balls per game.
Because whenever Phoenix got to less than 40 rebounds in a game in the Regular Seasons, their record ended up being just 9-12, but in the first game against the Pelicans, it was 35 and in the second, it was just 33.
Winning rebounds is essential, though, because even a not-so-high-scoring team like the Pelicans can end up winning if they just get enough second-chance points!
But they didn’t even need those “extra tries” in Game 2 because the scoring rate was a strong 54.8%.
But now we come to the point that actually makes me believe in the sensation, because of which I trust the Pelicans not only to win today’s match, but also to win the entire series! Because the Suns’ middle mast is broken!
Accordingly, I note with amazement how the Pelicans’ win odds have been lowered from a former 5.25 to now just 2.20! The oddsmakers must have understood that the momentum has now clearly shifted to the underdogs!
Conclusion: The Pelicans’ clear superiority on the board has been a headache for the Suns in every duel this season – but if they don’t find a remedy for it soon, they’ll soon be facing extinction in my eyes.
Whenever the Black and Violets didn’t get at least 40 rebounds, they lost more games than they won – and in fact it was 35 in the first game and only 33 in the second.
In addition, Devin Booker, possibly their best player, is now out and the home advantage also plays into the underdog’s hands! In my eyes, a real sensation is brewing here.
My Pelicans Suns tip: Win for the home side!
