NBA Playoffs 2023/24, Conference Finals, Game 4, Wednesday, 29.05.2024
The Texans have dominated so far and everything indicates that they will soon reach the finals in these 2024 NBA play-offs. In any case, it seems hard to imagine that they will let the butter be taken off their bread at 3:0.
However, I would like to point out in my Mavericks Timberwolves tip that an important cog in the Mavs’ gears could be missing. Dereck Lively II suffered an injury yesterday and could therefore be missing
I’m happy with my success rate in this series so far. Because in all three games I was able to serve you a successful Mavericks Timberwolves tip in advance.
While I placed a player bet on Kyrie Irving in the opening game, I focused on a simple win bet on the Texans in Game 2 & 3. But actually, I could just as easily have stuck with player bets on one of the two Mavs superstars.
Because in yesterday’s 116:107 win, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving once again exceeded the bookmakers’ expectations with 33 points each and made the Timberwolves look pretty old again in the process.
I’ve already indirectly revealed one observation as to why you could expect another Mavs win tonight.
Dallas has played eight close games this postseason and won six of them, including Game 3.
This is undoubtedly down to two key players, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, who have always been able to step up a gear in crunch time so far. Minnesota has not been able to cope with this late increase in tempo so far.
The Texans’ congenial duo produced strong moves in the final minutes of Game 3, with the Slovenian throwing a crucial lob pass to Gafford.
Want some numbers? In the fourth quarter, Irving and Doncic outscored Minnesota 21-14 as a collective
While the Mavs’ two stars are delivering, those of the Wolves are falling a bit short of their expectations. Top performances would be required to defeat the Texans in this form.
Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns certainly continued to struggle. Edwards promised to be more aggressive before Game 3 and had already attempted 20 shots by the end of the third quarter.
Edwards still scored 26 points and narrowly missed a triple-double. Towns, on the other hand, only hit 5 of 18 shots and only found his game shortly before half-time.
Despite their best efforts, the two key players were unable to consistently improve their performances, which severely hampered Minnesota’s chances of success.
Some pundits are betting on another Texans win tonight as the home side have a golden opportunity to give their best player an extended rest.
Doncic is suffering from soreness in his right knee and left ankle, but played 41 minutes in Game 3. He and Irving are the only duo to score 30 points each in multiple playoff games.
An early win in Game 4 would give Doncic more than a week of rest before the NBA Finals. The Mavericks are therefore hoping to use this opportunity to give their superstars a breather.
Be careful not to jump to conclusions at this point, though. While I agree with the German-licensed bookmakers that the Mavs are the favorites tonight, there is one crucial development from the last meeting that you should keep in mind.
Lively’s injury affected the dynamic under the basket. Game 3 was the first time Minnesota scored more points in the zone than Dallas (50-40). Without Lively, Dwight Powell had to play more minutes, which weakened the defense.
If Lively misses again in Game 4, Dallas could have trouble against a desperate Minnesota, which will look for its chances under the basket. Maxi Kleber is not expected to return until the NBA Finals.
Consequently, I’m really putting a lot on Lively. If the 20-year-old recovers from his minor injury, the Mavericks could enjoy air supremacy at the board again, otherwise the current Mavericks Timberwolves odds do not reflect the actual balance of power.
After all, it should not be forgotten that the Wolves were able to knock off the defending champions just under a week ago thanks to one of the best defensive performances in NBA play-offs history.
Since this is a deciding game, Minnesota can be expected to go above and beyond the pain threshold tonight
Conclusion: Doncic is banged up and Lively could miss the entire game. Under these conditions, the Mavs could suffer their first defeat in this series.
The rebounding duel could tip in favour of the Wolves for the first time, who have their backs to the wall anyway given their starting position and therefore want and need to go one better.
The Mavericks Timberwolves odds, which can be accessed via the extremely practical Bwin app, have also been chosen so that it is worth betting on the “Nuggets conquerors”, at least in Game 4 …
My tip: Win Timberwolves!
