NBA 2022/23, on Thursday, 16.03.2023
The German betting providers work with possible starting line-ups and statistics just like we do when it comes to creating betting odds. In the duel between the Miami Heat and the Memphis Grizzlies, however, they made a small mistake in my eyes.
In this NBA tip, I would be cautious to assign the Floridians the role of favourites. My Heat Grizzlies prediction does not underestimate the personnel failures on the part of the visitors, but also knows that The Grizz has much more to offer than just Ja Morant.
The Miami Heat have managed to win four of their last six NBA games, which isn’t such a bad thing considering all the inconsistencies in their own defensive play following the All-Star Break.
After all, before the week-long break, the Heat allowed opposing teams just 111.2 points per 100 possessions, which was still fifth-best in the league in that category at the time.
In the games following the All-Star Break, however, that figure suddenly skyrocketed to 117.3 points – 22nd. This drop in performance is probably also related to the fact that 7 of the last 10 opponents featured a top-10 offence.
Memphis remains one of the best teams in the NBA. After all, the Dark Blues are second in the entire Western Conference with a record of 41-26, which could put them in an ideal position heading into the playoffs.
However, they will not be able to unleash their great offensive power tonight. Because apart from the fact that Memphis primarily distinguishes itself through its excellent defence, Ja Morant is still missing up front.
Last season’s MIP is a mainstay in the Grizzlies’ offensive game. However, since he won’t be playing basketball again anytime soon due to his scandal, bettors are giving the Heat the better odds tonight.
However, at this point I think I’m a step ahead of the bookies. Because Memphis has a lot more going for it than just Ja Morant’s forays to conjure up points on the board.
Because yes, even with Ja Morant, the average point production per 100 possessions hasn’t exactly been what a top-flight offense is all about, but the Dark Blue’s recent performances have still been respectable.
After an impressive 131-110 win over the Warriors, the Grizz also won the subsequent doubleheader against the Mavericks. In both games against Dallas seven different players scored at least 20 points.
David Rody in particular had a great game against the Mavs last Saturday with 24 points and represents the quality that the Grizzlies can bring off the bench. The loss of Ja Morant can therefore definitely be compensated for.
Therefore, I am one of those experts who would combine a free bet with a Grizzlies win tonight. Especially since the sports bookmakers are giving the Western Conference runners-up an underdog odds of about 2.18.
And even if the Heat’s win odds are only 1.60, Floridian fans should beware. After all, the upcoming opponent has clearly won each of its last three guest games at Miami-Dade Arena.
Of course, the bookmakers have also priced in the fact that the visitors not only have the preseason MIP winner out, but also other key players in Williams and Clarke.
And yet the statistics prove that you should not bet lightly on the Floridians. The odds of winning are usually low in this case and are out of all proportion to the risk of losing.
Because the home side is known for making every game – no matter against whom – a match with a heartbeat finale.
Clutch games – are so-called close games in which both opponents were separated by five or fewer points during the last five minutes of the game.
Each of the Heat’s last six NBA games featured such a “clutch game” – even more: with 49 already this season, the Floridians have played more nail-biting thrillers in one season than any other NBA team in 27 years.
Conclusion: The Heat have degraded badly defensively after the All-Star Break and have the dubious knack of making even a game against a German BBL team close.
For that reason alone, I wouldn’t want to place a favourite bet on the Floridians. Especially since the upcoming opponent has much more to offer than any European team or any team in the Western Conference – except maybe the Denver Nuggets.
Even without Ja Morant, Memphis continues to be a top team in my eyes that has stayed on the winning track and will be celebrating its fourth straight NBA game tonight at the Heats’ recently unnamed venue.
My Heat Grizzlies tip: Guests win.