NBA Conference Finals 2023, Game 5 on Friday, 26.05.2023
The Celtics finally won the first game of this series and cut the deficit to 1:3 – already basketball fans all over the world are asking themselves whether the Green-Whites can now be trusted with perhaps the greatest comeback in history.
Probably not… Personally, I would rather put my hopes on a verified Bet365 bonus than on such a monumental performance by Boston. Anyway, my Heat Celtics tip assumes Miami will put the lid on tonight.
The Celtics’ season could be saved – for now at least! Because at 116-99, the once clear favourites in this series finally managed to win their first game in Game 4.
What went better this time? Quite simple: The C’s are dependent on successful threes! If they don’t hit their target, it usually looks bad for their chances of success.
When Boston has been able to sink at least 40% of their three-pointers this season – including the 2023 NBA Play-offs – they have won 37 of those 39 games in which that criterion was met, including Game 4 (40.9%).
Now, of course, the question is whether the C’s will win tonight as well, thus shifting the action back to the Kaseya Center.
However, I don’t see the makings of such a comeback. Sure, the win should clear some mental blocks, but I didn’t see a team that looked like it had been replaced compared to previous games in this series.
After all, it’s not like Boston finally found a cure for the Heats’ zone defense – or even took Jimmy Butler out of the game.
In fact, for me, Miami was the better team in Game 4 as well, at least until the break whistle.
The only difference between this game and the previous ones was that this time the many three-point attempts by the Green and Whites finally found their target and BOS head coach Mazzulla’s match plan thus worked for the first time.
As far as ball control was concerned, however, the Floridians got carried away with some unexpected mistakes. For in the turnover battle, Miami allowed itself a rather unusual 16 ball losses by its standards.
The Celtics played extremely well in this respect, especially in the second half – only 2 ball losses!
However, I still don’t think I saw enough to believe that the Green and Whites will turn things around now.
That’s because Jimmy Butler scored 29 points again, and the Heat’s superiority at the basket also reappeared in points from the paint in a 46-40 overage.
Just trusting that Boston’s three-pointers will continue to hit their target is not an effective means for a promising Heat Celtics tip. The Floridians have a lot more to offer than that!
It remains a 50-50 proposition for me tonight, but the Celtics Heat odds from the bookmakers make my betting decision a lot easier.
After all, BOS win odds of just 1.32 are almost a bad joke given the Green and White’s struggles so far to show this opponent their limitations.
The MIA odds, on the other hand, reach the much more interesting win factor of 3.4 at provider Bwin, which incidentally provides a useful tool for mobile phones with the Bwin app of the same name.
That is, of course, a far better bookmaker offer, which is currently doing the rounds for Game 5.
Conclusion: The Heat probably would have won Game 4 as well if the C’s hadn’t performed above average from distance.
However, the Floridians continue to dominate the board as well as the more relevant areas of the duel.
Of course, the Celtics can win tonight with another 18 converted three-pointers, but I wouldn’t necessarily trust that.
If the three-pointers don’t come, Tatum & Co. won’t be able to break down the strong zone defence of the Floridians.
My Heat Celtics tip: The threes don’t come and Miami goes to the NBA Finals.