Arabia, Sunday, 05.12.2021 at 18:30
Crunchtime in Formula 1 – and the battle for the crown is incredibly exciting. After the premiere in Qatar and another victory by Hamilton, there is another premiere on the high-speed circuit in Jeddah.
Verstappen’s lead has shrunk to 8 points in the meantime, and yet, under certain conditions, the Dutchman could already become world champion in Saudi Arabia.
Nevertheless, my Formula 1 prediction for the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix concludes that the final decision will probably only be made in the season’s grand finale.
The architects only had eight months to build the new circuit in Saudi Arabia. The track was only finished at the last minute, so it is completely new territory for all the teams.
Initially, the only available data was provided by simulations, but all the pilots were enthusiastic about the new track. The second longest track in Formula 1 is like Monaco, only faster.
With high-speed corners at speeds of up to 250 km/h, the track offers a lot of spectacle but also a lot of risk. Charles Leclerc already showed in the second free practice what can happen with the smallest mistake.
The crash into the barrier and the abort were the result. Looking at the track layout, I think the probability of more than one safety car phase or even a red flag during the 50 laps is absolutely realistic.
Due to the city, the track layout is incredibly tight, and due to the many limiting walls, a short departure from the course is severely penalised. For another red flag like in practice, Betano is offering good odds of around 1.95.
Such a mistake would cost Hamilton the championship. Because with Hamilton in 6th place, Verstappen’s first place and fastest race lap would be enough for his first world championship title.
However, Hamilton has the better arguments on his side with his power engine. This was already evident in the first two practice sessions.
It’s worth noting, however, that the difference to Red Bull was no longer as great as it had been recently in Brazil. Verstappen, on the other hand, has shown all weekend that nervousness is not an issue.
While other drivers approached the course cautiously, the Red Bull driver flew over the asphalt with full risk. In view of the track layout, the many barely visible corners could lead to tight situations and many duels.
During the practice sessions, the drivers often came dangerously close to each other, now they will fight for every centimetre with even more power in the race. Therefore, betting on under 16.5 cars at the finish at odds of around 1.80 at Unibet is a viable option in my view.
The key factor in the race will be tyre management. The red compound usually sets the fastest times, but the movement of the rubber particles on the asphalt results in a suboptimal balance. The pit stops will be decisive here.
There is no clear favourite. With the fast corners in the middle section and the medium-length straights, where power becomes important, Mercedes has the advantage, but the fast corners should suit the Red Bull car much better.
Verstappen also showed this on the last lap of qualifying. The RB driver was four tenths ahead of Hamilton and on pole until the last corner, but then the wheel locked and P1 slipped away from the world championship leader at the last second.
Consequently, Mercedes will now start the race from positions 1 and 2. As the track is not considered overtaking-friendly except for a few opportunities, Verstappen will have more than a hard time getting past Bottas to offer Hamilton serious opposition.
This is another reason why Hamilton is the clear favourite with odds of around 1.35 with German betting providers. Verstappen, on the other hand, is the clear underdog with odds of around 3.75.
Summary:At the end of the day, nuances and nerves will decide the race. With the slightest mistake, the whole world championship can be over for one of the two favourites. Nevertheless, I see Hamilton at a slight advantage.
The Mercedes driver also showed in qualifying with a strong performance that the world championship title can only go through him. However, Verstappen should not be written off.
The Dutchman showed that he has what it takes to set the perfect lap. With his hard and brave driving style, he almost took pole. It clearly showed that the Red Bull also has the necessary power.
Nevertheless, in the end I believe in a start-finish victory for Hamilton, also because of the track layout and the few overtaking opportunities.
However, Verstappen would have been four tenths quicker than Hamilton without the crash, and that’s why I’m also assuming Verstappen’s perfect race lap in Saudi Arabia.
Therefore My betting tip is : Fastest race lap Red Bull. Bet365 is offering odds of 3.25 on this.
