Brazilian Grand Prix in Sao Paulo, Sunday, 13.11.2022
It’s the penultimate race of the Formula 1 season and even if the world champion has already been decided, there’s still plenty of excitement in the premier class of motorsport.
The Brazilian Grand Prix will be the third and last sprint of the season and, for Ferrari and Mercedes in particular, the perfect opportunity to collect important points in the battle for second place.
The Scuderia expects a better performance than last time in Mexico. There are 40 points left on Mercedes, because cars perform much better in the last races with the new updates.
I was also surprised by the performance of Mercedes and that’s why in my Formula 1 prediction for the Brazilian GP I rather believe in Toto Wolff’s team.
I’ll tell you why Ferrari plays less of a role in my betting considerations in my race preview.
This weekend at the Brazilian Grand Prix, unlike last year, it’s not Mercedes against Red Bull, but Mercedes against Ferrari.
Because the Silver Arrows, still very close to victory in Mexico, want to finish in P1 at least once this year. The best prerequisites for this were created by Russell and Hamilton in the sprint through P1 and P2.
Nevertheless, both Ferrari and the Silver Arrows stressed before the weekend that on paper it looked bad against Red Bull.
Our top bookmakers are also betting the odds on a race win,despite pole Mercedes with odds of around 2.50 on Verstappen to win.
The world champion chose the wrong tyres and destroyed his front wing, allowing both Russell and Hamilton to pass him. Nevertheless, an exciting three or even five-way battle is to be expected in the race.
Both Mercedes and Leclerc were able to keep up with Red Bull’s pace, and some of the battles were very close and exciting.
This is another reason why Perez at least does not have the best chances of a podium. Bookies like Bwin are offering the Mexican odds of around 2.25 for a place among the top three.
The track in Interlagos is at a similar altitude to Mexico, which could play a role especially in terms of turbochargers and energy.
Because Ferrari had big problems a fortnight ago also due to the turbocharger being too small.
However, the Scuderia does not expect such an effect this time, but compares the track in Brazil much more with the Austrian GP, where Leclerc took the victory.
Some sections of the track seem the same and even the competition doesn’t believe that a weekend like the last one in Mexico will repeat itself.
In the sprint, both Ferraris initially held the lead, but in the end it was only enough for P5 and P7. This also fits in with the inconsistent form of the Scuderia.
In Singapore, Suzuka and Austin, at least Leclerc was always on the podium. The race in Mexico, on the other hand, should be seen more as a slip-up, but Sainz will have a hard time with 5 penalty places.
Red Bull, on the other hand, has a decisive advantage in the race. Because of the medium tyres, Verstappen has one more soft tyre than the other teams, which could bring victory, especially with an undercut strategy.
In terms of pace, Mercedes is clearly second to Red Bull this weekend. The track seems to suit the Silver Arrows and the updates are also working. As a result, both Mercedes will start from the front row for the first time this season.
Ferrari, on the other hand, is lagging behind a bit and is actually more or less only really competitive with Leclerc, but also had to admit defeat to Mercedes in terms of speed.
Another exciting battle is still going on between McLaren and Alpine for fourth place among the Constructors. The French racing team is only seven points ahead.
However, Alonso, who will be driving for Aston Martin next year, does not have a good word to say about Alpine. He criticised the unreliability of the car in particular.
Most recently in Mexico and with a total of 5 retirements this season, the Spaniard is the driver who has seen the chequered flag the least often, behind Sainz, Bottas and Zhou.
Betano Sportwetten offers comparatively high odds of around 4.50 for another retirement of the Alpine driver.
But also within the team, both riders do not seem to agree. In the sprint, both drivers got in each other’s way and now start at the very end of the field. McLaren, meanwhile, drove solidly to P7 and P11 and clearly has the better cards in the H2H duel.
The last 5 races at the Autódromo José Carlos Pace:
In addition, Alpine will be racing with used engines in Brazil, which could give McLaren another advantage.
If Norris stays fit, I definitely trust him to finish in the top6 again, given his skill and the car.
In the battle for the top places, the course also promises a lot of excitement. Especially after the long start straight at the Senna-S and in turn 4, there are optimal overtaking opportunities.
On top of that, it is supposed to rain at the start of the race and it will be a challenge with temperatures of up to 28 degrees. That and due to the long season, there could be technical defects, as in the races before.
Therefore, an over/under bet offers itself here again. One or two retirements are usually the case in Interlagos anyway, so a safety car phase seems relatively likely to the bookies with odds of around 1.33.
In addition, there could be fierce duels right at the start but also downhill. For less than 17.5 drivers at the finish, Happybet offers odds of about 1.55.
Total: The sprint was a real thriller and let’s hope for an exciting race. The duels between the top three teams were reminiscent of last season, but also showed that Mercedes and Ferrari have caught up.
Of course Verstappen is the favourite due to his general form, but I was still very impressed by the two Mercedes. Whether it will be enough for the first win of the season remains to be seen.
Nevertheless, I have a lot of confidence in Hamilton with his experience. For Verstappen and also Leclerc, Mercedes will be a tough opponent. I therefore expect a classic three-way fight in the race.
But Brazil and Mercedes, that doesn’t only seem to fit last year, but also this year the car seems to work with the track and the two drivers have the best chances from P1 and P2.
My tip for the Brazil GPs: Mercedes will score the most team points.