Imola Grand Prix, Sunday, 19.05.2024
The European opener of the 2024 Formula 1 season is just around the corner. The fastest racing series in the world will be racing in Imola, Italy, this weekend. One of the year’s highlights, the prestigious race on the most traditional street circuit in the motorsport world, Monaco, follows just one week later.
At the start in Europe, the tension is higher than it has been for a long time. The dominance of Red Bull and Max Verstappen is threatening to crumble. The Dutchman missed out on victory in Miami and was beaten by a fast Lando Norris, who claimed his first GP win
While Red Bull team boss Christian Horner emphasized that his protégé had lost speed due to a collision with a track bollard, the three-time world champion replied that he had not felt affected by the contact during the rest of the race.
After McLaren, Ferrari is now bringing a major update package to the first of the two home races. As the situation at the front is now quite difficult to assess, in my Formula 1 Imola GP betting tip I’m going for the Interwetten odds that neither Aston Martin will bag any points. A great bet, why? Find out in the next few minutes of reading!
The race in Imola has a long tradition in Formula 1. The premier class raced on the circuit for the first time in 1980, back then on a slightly different track layout. The clear record winner is Michael Schumacher with seven victories, ahead of former rivals Alain Prost and Ayrton Senna.
The Brazilian Formula 1 legend was killed in an accident on the fast circuit just one day after Roland Ratzenberger’s accident at the most tragic race weekend of the premier class in Imola in 1994
Before Jules Bianchi’s fatal crash in Japan in 2014, it was the last fatality in Formula 1, which continues to raise safety standards. To mark the 30th anniversary of the icons’ deaths, Sebastian Vettel will be doing laps of honor in the 1993 Senna McLaren ahead of the race in Emilia Romagna.
McLaren is in the spotlight anyway, the team has achieved its first GP success since the 2021 Italian GP, after 2012 it was only the second victory for the once so dominant team in the premier class, which is increasingly finding its old strength.
However, the bookmakers are assuming it will be a one-off. Verstappen is listed by Oddset as the favorite at 1.28, although the odds are definitely slightly higher compared to the last World Championship races. After all, Norris (8.00) is still the front runner ahead of Charles Leclerc (9.00).
Compared to Miami, a completely different type of track awaits Formula 1. For one thing, Imola is a permanent race track compared to the event race in Miami, the asphalt is different, there are significantly more differences in elevation for the drivers and the weather could also play a role.
Last year, the Grand Prix had to be canceled due to flooding caused by persistent downpours. In 2024, it should remain dry for the time being, but rain is expected on race Sunday
This could shake up the field a bit. Will all the cars stay on track? After all, the narrow circuit, which has been equipped with even more gravel beds this year, is considered to be demanding in terms of driving.
Depending on the weather conditions, a bet on a safety car could therefore pay off. Interwetten offers 1.50 odds on this. The option of placing an over/under bet on safety car phases is still fairly new.
In a wet race, several bets by Bernd Mayländer are absolutely within the realm of possibility. The 3.20 for a double exit of the safety car from the pits is definitely worth considering.
In Interwetten’s modernized round design, I also studied the other markets, and the 1.90 for the event that both Aston Martins do not finish in the top 10 caught my eye.
The still high odds are due to the pure performance of the British racer. Star driver Fernando Alonso was able to make the most of it, finishing in the points every time with his AMR24, but not by a clear margin.
The team seems to be losing touch with the top racing teams Red Bull, McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes and would only be in ninth and tenth place with its drivers according to the current pecking order.
The last 5 races at the Autodromo Enzo e Dino Ferrari:
However, Stroll, who does not have the best standing in the world motorsport elite due to his sharp drop in performance compared to Alonso and numerous accidents, rarely contributes to the points account.
The 42-year-old Spaniard has scored 33 of the 42 Aston Martin points. Stroll only made it into the top 10 twice, in Bahrain and Australia. Stroll came away empty-handed from the last three World Championship races.
He was also beaten four times by the German driver Nico Hülkenberg, who will be able to drive freely from next season onwards with a permanent contract for Audi, and recently three times in a row. The Happybet bet for this direct duel still yields 1.83 for the still-Haas driver
Verstappen is the favorite for me in any case despite the slip-up in Imola. But despite the slight increase in the odds, it’s hardly worth betting on the race win. After all, McLaren has made a huge leap forward with an extensive update package.
And in Imola, Ferrari has something to make the car faster. The team that was considered the number one chaser of Red Bull before the last round of the world championship. The individual sessions will show how the balance of power may have shifted at the top. And then there is the weather component
Conclusion: I’ll leave the race win and podium odds alone this time. I’ve found much better odds at Interwetten, namely that not both Aston Martin drivers will finish the race in the points.
Stroll is struggling to get the maximum out of the race, is clearly losing out to Alonso and is also repeatedly making driving mistakes. This year’s race duel is 5:1 in favor of the 2005 and 2006 world champion and 17:3 last season. What’s more, the British team is currently slipping further down the field.
Alonso was only just able to bag points in Miami. The Mercedes is doing better and Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari have lost ground. Instead, there is pressure from the Racing Bulls, who want to show off at their home race with the team factory in Fiorano. In the last few races, Daniel Ricciardo and Yuki Tsunoda have already been faster than Stroll.
That’s why my Formula 1 Imola GP tip is: Both Aston Martin in the points? No.
