Austrian Grand Prix in Spielberg, Sunday, 10.07.2022
Part 2 of the first double header in July – and the starting position promises pure excitement ahead of the Austrian Grand Prix. Because in the second sprint format in the 2022 Formula 1 season, the battle for the top places begins as early as Friday.
Before the weekend in Styria, Red Bull is still in first place in the constructors’ championship.
But Ferrari came a lot closer with the victory of Sainz and Mercedes is also getting better and better thanks to the updates and already had exciting duels with the Scuderia last weekend.
Nevertheless, Red Bull has some advantages, which is why I predict a thrilling three-way battle in my Formula 1 prediction for the Austrian Grand Prix on the sprint weekend, but ultimately see Verstappen in the lead.
This weekend will be an absolute home game for Max Verstappen. According to the organisers, 35,000 of the 300,000 racing fans from the Netherlands will come to the Austrian Grand Prix to cheer on their world champion.
Austria is a good place for him to collect points anyway, as he already took two victories in two weekends last year. Last weekend, too, he would have had a chance to win at Silverstone.
Carlos Sainz was very lucky to take the first GP win of his career. Verstappen was slowed down by a puncture and team-mate Perez had to have his wing changed.
The Ferrari driver was only fifth fastest in the field – even Leclerc with a broken front wing was faster. Luckily for Red Bull, Ferrari made crucial mistakes in the pits and didn’t bring Leclerc in immediately.
Nevertheless, in the end it was enough for victory and important points in the world championship battle, which Ferrari also urgently needs, because Austria has been Verstappen country for years.
So it’s no wonder that the Red Bull driver is the clear favourite in Formula 1 betting with odds of plenty of 1.80. This is mainly due to the fact that the odds are very good. This is mainly due to the fact that this circuit offers enormous differences in altitude.
From the start-finish straight to turn 3, the drivers drive 100 metres uphill, which in turn affects the air conditions.
The thinner air means less oxygen is available to the engines, which affects the pace. The Honda engine, as was shown last season in Brazil, performs best in these situations.
In addition, the characteristics of the track with its long straights and tight corners could suit the Red Bull best. The RB18 is better than the Ferrari, especially on the long runs.
However, there will be spectacular overtaking manoeuvres here – as there were last season. Turns 9 and 10 promise to be particularly exciting, as they are subject to strict track limits, which also prevented many drivers from achieving the perfect lap for the sprint in qualifying.
In addition, there are full-throttle passages at 320 km/h and a 700-metre-long straight with a DRS zone. Therefore, betting on more than 3 leaders is also a viable option at the German bookmakers with a value of around 1.57.
Among them, of course, was Lewis Hamilton in his Mercedes. Recent performance at the home GP at Silverstone gave reason for hope.
With upgrades to the underbody and wings, the Mercedes now seems to have fewer bounce issues and better aerodynamics.
Both drivers in the top 6, which is not normally the aspiration of Toto Wolff and co, seems to be a good result already this season.
Toto Wolff already said before the weekend that the track would be a challenge and he should be right.
For both Russell and Lewis Hamilton flew into the barriers in qualifying. It was a bitter pill to swallow because the performance looked promising in between.
For Mercedes, but also Ferrari, the weekend is even more important, because the Sprint Format means that since this season there are more points for the top places.
For the Silver Arrows from P5 and P10 it will be rather difficult, Ferrari on the other hand from P2 and P3 have very good chances to put Verstappen under pressure, because something is definitely possible in the sprint.
It will also be clear that the sprint will not be a high risk. The Mercedes showed how quickly a lap can end in the barriers. Nevertheless, a victory by Leclerc, who drove a strong QF, is quite conceivable with odds of approx. 3.30.
The last 5 races at the Red Bull Ring:
In recent years, the narrow high-speed circuit has already seen exciting duels and many crashes. This is because a short deviation from the ideal line or a too-far departure from the track quickly ends in the gravel at the high speeds.
For this reason, and also after qualifying with two red flags, I expect a few retirements here. Especially with McLaren, who again struggled with the technology, that would also be conceivable. Should a driver only reach the finish line here, there are odds of around 3.50.
A slightly less risky but still conceivable tip would be that “Less than 16.5 cars reach the finish. This would give a value of around 2.0.
Conclusion: The past weekend showed that it is very close between Ferrari and Red Bull, although at times it seemed as if Red Bull would rush far ahead. But Ferrari has caught itself and is now performing noticeably better.
This was also shown in qualifying, where Verstappen only managed to take the all-important pole for the sprint in the last few metres. The teams have little in common in terms of performance.
Ferrari on P2 and P3 performed well and could score the most points tomorrow, if it stays that way. However, it shows that the whole field is very close together.
This is why the sprint is going to be so exciting, because although only a quarter of the race distance will be run, the track makes it possible to improve a few places.
The sprint will be as close as qualifying, I’m sure. It will be between Red Bull and Ferrari, but Mercedes were also surprisingly strong until the crashes.
If the mechanics can fix Hamilton’s car, I’m sure he’ll be in the top 6 in the sprint.
Therefore my sprint tip for Saturday is “Hamilton Top 6″.
