Key Facts
- Heidenheim sits at the bottom of the table with just one win in 17 games; a loss on Saturday would mean direct relegation.
- St. Pauli has the league’s weakest offense, having conceded 26 goals, has gone six league games without a win, and has won just once in ten away games.
- The absence of Mathias Pereira Lage (knee) as well as the absences of Eric Smith and James Sands weaken St. Pauli’s midfield balance at a crucial stage of the season.
- Four of the last five head-to-head matches have had fewer than 2.5 goals—despite both teams’ current defensive struggles, their head-to-head history suggests a close, tight game.
- Trends suggest plenty of goals: Heidenheim has scored in four consecutive league matches, and both teams have recently maintained solid defensive streaks (Heidenheim has conceded in 31 consecutive matches)—both factors increase the likelihood of over 2.5 goals.
- Heidenheim is unbeaten in its last two home games (including a 3-1 win against Union Berlin), making home-field advantage all the more important in this relegation decider.
Mathias Pereira Lage is out for the rest of the season for St. Pauli, and Heidenheim knows that a loss on Saturday would mean an immediate drop to the 2. Bundesliga. At the Voith-Arena, Frank Schmidt’s team and Alexander Blessin’s St. Pauli face off, both deep in the relegation battle and knowing that they can hardly afford any more slip-ups.
Recent form doesn’t paint a clear picture. While Heidenheim lost 1-2 in Freiburg, they had previously picked up four points from two league games and are, after all, scoring regularly. St. Pauli drew 1-1 with Cologne, have been waiting for a win for six games, and head into the weekend with a two-point lead over Wolfsburg after winning the last meeting in December 2-1.
- Venue: Voith-Arena, Heidenheim
- Date and time: April 25, 2026, 3:30 PM
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 31)
The strongest argument continues to favor Over 2.5 goals: Heidenheim has scored in four consecutive matches and conceded in 31 straight league games, while St. Pauli has failed to keep a clean sheet in five straight matches and must also play without Eric Smith.
The bookmakers see Heidenheim as slight favorites, which, given the must-win nature of this home game, certainly leaves room for a home victory, but also for the counterargument that St. Pauli can avoid another loss.
Heidenheim Form & Record Check
The 1-2 loss in Freiburg pretty much summed up Heidenheim’s season. Frank Schmidt’s team stayed in the game, Budu Zivzivadze equalized after the break, but defensive vulnerabilities resurfaced and the points slipped away late in the match. The positive: Heidenheim has now scored in four league games in a row, which at least provides a foundation for the relegation battle on the offensive end.
There is noticeably more energy at home. Heidenheim defeated Union Berlin 3-1 in their last match at the Voith Arena and also picked up a point against Bayer Leverkusen, meaning they have gone unbeaten in their last two home games. Nevertheless, the bigger picture is hard to ignore: just one win in 17 games overall, plus the absences of Benedikt Gimber and Eren Dinkçi, and the defense continues to concede goals week after week.
Heidenheim is likely to stick to its usual 4-1-4-1 formation, though this is still just a prediction. Diant Ramaj – 41 is expected to start behind Marnon Busch – 2, Patrick Mainka – 6, Jonas Föhrenbach – 19, and Hennes Behrens – 26, while Julian Niehues – 16 is likely to occupy the deepest position in midfield. This would keep the structure close to the one used in recent weeks.
Further up front, Jan Schöppner – 3 and Niklas Dorsch – 30 could provide balance to the system, while Arijon Ibrahimovic – 22 and Mathias Honsak – 17 are expected to operate around Marvin Pieringer – 18. The absences of Benedikt Gimber, Leart Paçarada, Eren Dinkçi, Sirlord Conteh, and Mikkel Kaufmann limit Schmidt’s options, so this predicted starting lineup is likely to prioritize continuity over surprises.
St. Pauli Form & Record Check
The most pressing issue for St. Pauli is the absence of Mathias Pereira Lage, whose knee injury costs Alexander Blessin another regular starter at precisely the moment his team needs stability in the final third. In the 1-1 draw against Cologne, they initially looked competitive, took the lead through Karol Mets, but then failed to convert their control into a secure lead and conceded the equalizer shortly before the end.
The long-term trend is concerning. St. Pauli has secured just one win in their last seven matches, has gone six league games without a win, and their attack remains the weakest in the league with 26 goals. Things look hardly any better on the road: just one win in ten games, and with the absences of Eric Smith and James Sands, it’s even harder to find balance in the squad.
St. Pauli is likely to stick with their usual 3-4-2-1 formation, although this is only a projected lineup. In this system, Nikola Vasilj (No. 22) would play behind Tomoya Ando (No. 15), Hauke Wahl (No. 5), and Karol Mets (No. 3), while Manolis Saliakas (No. 2) and Lars Ritzka (No. 21) provide the necessary width. Against an opponent that Blessin describes as tight and physical, this structure makes perfect sense.
The biggest personnel issue in this projected lineup is the likely absence of Eric Smith. James Sands, Mathias Pereira Lage, and Ricky-Jade Jones are also out, which means the task of securing second balls will likely fall to Jackson Irvine (No. 7) and Mathias Rasmussen (No. 20). Further up front, Danel Sinani (No. 10) and Martijn Kaars (No. 19) are expected to support Andréas Hountondji (No. 27).
Heidenheim – St. Pauli Head-to-Head & Statistics
The last five meetings have gone St. Pauli’s way: three wins, one draw, one loss. In the return match in December 2025, St. Pauli won 2-1, and in January 2025, they also won 2-0. Heidenheim’s only win during this period was a 2-0 away victory in 2024. Earlier matches resulted in a 1-0 win for St. Pauli in 2023 and a draw in 2022.
Interestingly, these matches were generally much closer than their current form would suggest. All five of the most recent meetings saw fewer than 3.5 goals, four of them even fewer than 2.5, and every first half ended with fewer than 1.5 goals. Even though both teams’ defensive struggles this weekend suggest scoring opportunities, the head-to-head history has historically been marked by caution and has mostly been decided by narrow margins.
