Key Facts
- Fiorentina is just one point above the relegation zone and returns to league action on the back of a 0-3 debacle against Crystal Palace – now it’s all about keeping their composure.
- Lazio is unbeaten in five games but will be without Provedel, Gila, and Gigot – defensive gaps that Fiorentina can exploit in attack.
- Both teams score regularly: Lazio has scored at least once in all five of its most recent matches, and Fiorentina in four consecutive games – the “Both Teams to Score” bet has a solid statistical basis.
- In four of the last five head-to-head matches, at least three goals were scored, though the first half was usually quiet – experience shows that the match only gets more exciting after the break.
- Fiorentina won both of their 2024 home matches against Lazio 2-1 each – their recent home record suggests a value bet, despite the hosts’ current form.
With the 3-0 debacle from the Conference League quarterfinal first leg against Crystal Palace still fresh in their minds, Fiorentina returns to Serie A, and of all times, Lazio is coming to the Franchi. Paolo Vanoli’s team had recently stabilized in the league, but the experience in London is likely to have a noticeable lingering effect. Lazio, on the other hand, is unbeaten in five games and continues to juggle the battle for European spots with an ongoing Coppa Italia semifinal.
Fiorentina sits in 16th place in the table, one point behind Cagliari after the weekend’s matches, while Lazio ranks ninth, just one point behind Bologna and one ahead of Udinese. The first leg in January ended 2-2, and the market makes the hosts only slight favorites.
- Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence
- Date and time: April 13, 2026, 8:45 PM
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 32)
The strongest betting line is that both teams will score: Lazio has scored in five consecutive matches, and Fiorentina has done so in four straight games before their slump against Palace. Added to this are weaknesses in both defenses. X2 favors the more stable side, especially since Fiorentina is coming straight off a European Cup match.
Fiorentina Form & Record Check
Two days after a disjointed 0-3 first-leg loss at Crystal Palace, Fiorentina returns to league action with its European confidence shaken. Dodô conceded the penalty that led to the 0-1, and Paolo Vanoli’s team again showed too many gaps on the late third goal, even though Giovanni Fabbian hit the crossbar. The result stung all the more because their previous league performances had looked significantly more stable and controlled.
In Serie A, they had picked up seven points against Verona, Inter, and Cremonese, which is why the Franchi looks more like a place of opportunity than a crisis zone. Fiorentina has scored in four of their last five matches and often gets into the game better after halftime. Nevertheless: With just a one-point lead over Cagliari and little breathing room behind them, nerves of steel and composure count for at least as much as determination.
Fiorentina is likely to line up in a 4-3-3 again, though that is, of course, not yet certain. David de Gea – 43 is expected to start in goal, with Dodô – 2, Marin Pongracic – 5, Luca Ranieri – 6, and Robin Gosens – 21 in front of him. The fullbacks will likely spread the play wide, after the defense showed some weaknesses in the Conference League recently.
In midfield, Giovanni Fabbian – 80, Nicolò Fagioli – 44, and Rolando Mandragora – 8 could feature, a trio that would provide Fiorentina with both ball control and runs into space. Further up front, Jack Harrison – 17, Moise Kean – 20, and Albert Gudmundsson – 10 are expected to form the attacking trio. Tariq Lamptey remains sidelined, leaving the options at right-back thin.
Lazio Rome Form & Record Check
Lazio comes into this match following a 1-1 draw against Parma, a game that only picked up pace after substitutions, including goals from Tijjani Noslin and assists from Kenneth Taylor. Coach Sarris is primarily concerned with squad management ahead of the upcoming Coppa Italia second leg against Atalanta and Mattia Zaccagni’s slow return.
Across all competitions, the Romans are unbeaten in five games and have shown resilience in this run with wins over Bologna and AC Milan, scoring at least once in every match and rarely looking under pressure. Of greater concern are the absences of Provedel, Gila, Gigot, and Rovella, which significantly weaken Sarri’s defense and build-up play.
Lazio is expected to line up in Maurizio Sarri’s usual 4-3-3 formation, though this is initially just a prediction. Edoardo Motta (No. 40) is expected in goal, with Adam Marusic (No. 77), Patric (No. 4), Alessio Romagnoli (No. 13), and Nuno Tavares (No. 17). In midfield, Danilo Cataldi (No. 32) is set to anchor the defense, flanked by Fisayo Dele-Bashiru (No. 7) and Kenneth Taylor (No. 24).
The biggest question marks in this projected lineup stem from injuries. Ivan Provedel, Mario Gila, Samuel Gigot, and Nicolò Rovella are unavailable, which is why Patric and Romagnoli will have to maintain a more defensive line. Up front, Gustav Isaksen (No. 18), Daniel Maldini (No. 27), and Pedro (No. 9) are slated to form a front three, while Mattia Zaccagni’s starting spot is not yet certain.
Fiorentina – Lazio Head-to-Head & Statistics
The recent record favors Fiorentina, who have won three of the last five matches. Lazio secured one victory, and the other match ended in a draw. The most recent encounter in January 2026 ended 2-2 in Rome, which fits well with the overall picture. Four of the five most recent matches featured at least three goals, but four also had fewer than 3.5, indicating that the games were generally close.
Interestingly, Lazio has scored in all five games, while Fiorentina has done so in four, so it is anything but a coincidence that both teams regularly find the back of the net. The opening stages have tended to be quiet; in four of the five matches, fewer than 1.5 goals were scored in the first half, including in the last three games. Fiorentina has won both of its home matches in 2024 by a score of 2-1, further underscoring its recent dominance in this rivalry.
