Key Facts
- Paulo Dybala returns to the squad; however, Fiorentina will be missing significant offensive firepower with Moise Kean, Roberto Piccoli, and Robin Gosens out.
- AS Roma is in good form (3 wins, 1 draw in their last four league games) and is fighting for a Champions League spot.
- In their last five head-to-head matches, AS Roma has always scored at least once; Fiorentina has conceded at least one goal in all five encounters.
- Goalkeeper Mile Svilar and the recently solid defense (most recently keeping clean sheets against Bologna and Pisa) are unlikely to give Florence’s weakened attack much room to operate.
- Florence showed solid organization against Sassuolo but lacked cutting edge; without Kean and Gosens, they lack the necessary depth up front.
- The quarterfinal exit against Crystal Palace revealed that Florence struggles when the team is chasing a result—a danger in Rome.
Paulo Dybala is available again for AS Roma, while Florence travels to the capital without Moise Kean. This contrast in personnel shapes Monday’s match at the Stadio Olimpico more than league standings, as Roma appear more resilient at this stage of the season and continue to fight for Champions League spots. Fiorentina also need a few more points to dispel any doubts: Gian Piero Gasperini’s team recently defeated Bologna 2-0 and sit just one point behind Como, so the pressure is palpable. Paolo Vanoli’s side could not get past a 0-0 draw against Sassuolo and has recently looked more solid than strong.
- Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome
- Date and time: May 4, 2026, 8:45 PM
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 35)
“Both teams to score” at odds close to 2.0 is becoming an attractive option, as Moise Kean, Roberto Piccoli, and Robin Gosens are out. And a victory for AS Roma by a two-goal margin is entirely realistic, especially since Mile Svilar is protecting a defense that has kept clean sheets in recent matches against Bologna and Pisa.
AS Roma Form & Record Check
Roma’s 2-0 win in Bologna was arguably the team’s most mature performance in the last month. The Romans scored early through Donyell Malen, extended their lead to 2-0 before halftime, and then managed the game with significantly less nervousness than in their away match at Inter. This also underscored the sentiment circulating around Trigoria: Gasperini has brought back a bit of aggression and structure at just the right time. Roma have secured three wins and a draw from their last four league matches, and the 3-0 victory over Pisa as well as the 1-0 win against Lecce demonstrate that the team can control different styles of play. They have scored in each of their last five league appearances, often early on, and Mile Svilar continues to reliably cover defensive lapses.
The open question remains the balance in midfield, as Neil El Aynaoui is suspended while Manu Koné returns.
AS Roma are likely to line up in their usual 3-4-2-1 formation, though this is only a projected lineup at this stage. Mile Svilar – 99 is expected to start behind Gianluca Mancini – 23, Daniele Ghilardi – 87, and Evan Ndicka – 5, while Wesley – 43 and Angeliño – 3 provide width and push the formation forward when in possession. The biggest question mark lies in the attacking third, where Artem Dovbyk, Evan Ferguson, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Bryan Zaragoza, and Zeki Çelik are all unavailable. That should make Donyell Malen – 14 the most likely solution in the center of the attack, with Paulo Dybala – 21 and Matías Soulé – 18 playing as deep-lying forwards behind him, while Manu Koné – 17 and Bryan Cristante – 4 provide balance in midfield.
Fiorentina Form & Record Check
Fiorentina’s 0-0 draw against Sassuolo pretty much summed up the team’s current state. The structure was there, control of the game was decent, but the match lacked any real bite, and the second halves in particular have become noticeably quiet lately. This is all the more concerning now that Moise Kean will miss the trip to Rome, Roberto Piccoli remains sidelined, and the burden in the penalty area is being shifted to a smaller group of attackers. The team’s league form is more stable than the headlines suggest: a 1-0 win against Lazio, preceded by a 1-1 draw in Lecce, before the scoreless weekend followed. Across all competitions, however, the quarterfinal exit against Crystal Palace exposed this team’s limitations when they have to chase a result. Paolo Vanoli should have Marin Pongracic back, but without Robin Gosens, the left side lacks pace and attacking punch.
Fiorentina is expected to line up in a 4-3-3 as usual, with David de Gea – 43 behind Dodô – 2, Daniele Rugani – 3, Luca Ranieri – 6, and Fabiano Parisi – 65. The midfield trio of Rolando Mandragora – 8, Nicolò Fagioli – 44, and Cher Ndour – 27 is designed for balance, while Albert Gudmundsson – 10 is likely to operate as a deep-lying striker between Jack Harrison – 17 and Manor Solomon – 19. This remains a prediction for now, and the biggest question marks are on the left side and in the attack. Robin Gosens is out with a thigh injury, which is why Fabiano Parisi – 65 is slated as his replacement in this potential lineup. Roberto Piccoli is also unavailable. According to reports, Moise Kean – 20 is also expected to miss the away game, which would force Florence to rely more on rotation and movement than on a classic center forward.
AS Roma – Florence Head-to-Head & Stats
Recent encounters give AS Roma a clear psychological edge, even if they haven’t always been in complete control. The last two matches went to the Romans: 2-1 away in October 2025 and 1-0 at home in May 2025, after Florence had struck back with a 5-1 win in 2024. Prior to that, the match ended 2-2 in 2024 and 1-1 in 2023. The most striking pattern is that AS Roma almost always scores. In each of the last five matches, the Romans have scored at least one goal, and four of those games featured more than 1.5 goals. Florence conceded at least one goal in all five matches. Interestingly, AS Roma often got off to a quick start and scored before halftime in four of those encounters. This historical analysis once again points to the home team’s advantage.
