Women’s US Open in New York, Final on Saturday, September 12, 2026, 10:00 p.m.
It has long been a modern classic in women’s tennis: Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina face off about three times a year on average. Now, their next showdown is set to take place on one of the biggest stages of all—at the US Open in New York.
In my Sabalenka vs. Rybakina prediction, physical condition plays a decisive role for me. Rybakina once again had to go the distance in three sets and, in the semifinals, also had to cover 634 meters more on the court than the Belarusian.
Sabalenka vs. Rybakina AI Predictions:
Although the betting AI we programmed is actually designed for soccer betting, with the right tennis data sets, it can also generate a meaningful Sabalenka vs. Rybakina AI prediction.
Although Sabalenka won the last two head-to-head matches in the spring, the final at Indian Wells against the Kazakh player went to a deciding set—which even ended in a tiebreak!
Predicted chance of winning:
| Sabalenka to win |
Rybakina to win |
| 58.5% |
41.5% |
This is particularly attractive if you expect her to win the opening set, lose the second, but maintain the upper hand in the deciding set thanks to her physical strength.
If you’re willing to take more of a risk, you could also consider the scenario—at odds of up to 7.00—where Sabalenka wins only after falling behind in sets—meaning Rybakina takes the first set. Incidentally, this is exactly how Sabalenka won that final at Indian Wells!
What You Need to Know When Betting on Sabalenka vs. Rybakina
- Seasonal dominance: Sabalenka won their last two head-to-head hard-court matches in the spring of 2026 (including a straight-set victory in Miami, 6-4, 6-3), but Rybakina celebrated her biggest win of the season in January in the Australian Open final against Sabalenka.
- Sabalenka’s Service Fortress: In her semifinal against Jessica Pegula, Sabalenka shone with an outstanding first-serve percentage, fired 9 aces, and saved over 80% of all break points—her serve appears extremely consistent on the New York hard courts.
- Rybakina’s Comeback Qualities: Physically challenged, Rybakina came under pressure in the first set of her semifinal against Coco Gauff, but showed nerves of steel and turned the match around in three close sets (3–6, 6–4, 6–4) after more than two hours of play.
- Historic Milestone: For the first time since Steffi Graf and Arantxa Sánchez Vicario in 1994, the same two players are facing off in both the Australian Open and the U.S. Open finals in the same calendar year. Rybakina leads Sabalenka 2-1 in Grand Slam finals.
