Men’s US Open in New York, 3rd Round on Sunday, September 6, 2026, at 2:10 a.m.
So far, I’ve been watching the matches of the absolute top favorites to win the tournament, and I’ve had to stick with it for a particularly long time, especially during Sascha Zverev’s grueling five-set battles.
Tonight won’t be a walk in the park for the German either! My Zverev vs. Tabilo pick is “only” a Tabilo win with a handicap of +2.5 at odds of 1.65—but in reality, the Chilean has a much better chance of winning more than just one set!
Last year, Sascha did beat this exact opponent 3-0 on this stage, but things aren’t going well for him at all right now, and another nail-biter going the full distance is already on the horizon…
Zverev vs. Tabilo AI Predictions:
I fed our tennis prediction model with match data from the first two rounds of the US Open and then asked it to generate a Zverev vs. Tabilo AI prediction based on that data.
Actually, I was quite surprised at first when the screen displayed “Tabilo to win” as the betting recommendation. But when you think about it, this suggested bet actually makes a lot of sense.
That’s because Zverev has been struggling quite a bit and lacks his usual killer instinct. Against Halys, for example, he converted only 5 out of 20 break points. Furthermore, the Tabilo odds for advancing at bet365 are disproportionately high at 6.00.
Predicted probability of winning:
| Zverev to win |
Tabilo to Win |
| 92.5% |
7.5% |
If he were in top form, Sascha would beat the Chilean 3-0, just as he did at the previous US Open. But especially down the stretch, the German is currently making more and more errors and showing signs of carelessness.
The first two rounds played out identically: Against both Halys and Sonego, Zverev confidently took the first set but then lost his rhythm, only regaining it later in the respective deciding sets!
What to keep in mind when betting on Zverev vs. Tabilo
- Zverev’s ambitions after the Flushing Meadows disappointment: I see a need for redemption for the German No. 1; after the former US Open finalist was surprisingly eliminated in the third round in 2025, he’s aiming to go deeper in the tournament this year.
- Impressive Grand Slam performance this year: Zverev has proven to be extremely reliable on the biggest stages; in 2026, he reached at least the semifinals in all three previous Majors, losing there only to the exceptional talents Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner.
- Lack of experience for Tabilo in the third round: The Chilean is still breaking new ground at this level; Alejandro Tabilo has a balanced 1-1 record in third-round Grand Slam matches so far in his career.
- No Success Against the Elite on Hard Courts: The statistical hurdle is enormous for the underdog; Tabilo has never beaten a top-5 player on hard courts and has lost all four of his previous matches against such opponents.
