Key Facts
- Real Madrid sits comfortably in second place with 83 points, while Bilbao, in 12th place, is just two points ahead of Sevilla.
- Madrid has recently looked more stable and controlled defensively, but their offensive output has remained modest at just 1.2 goals per game on average.
- Bilbao halted their downward trend against Celta, but the absences of Nico Williams and Beñat Prados are hampering their pressing, width, and midfield control.
- The last five head-to-head matches favor Madrid: Real has scored in every game, Bilbao has conceded in every game, and every match has had fewer than 3.5 goals.
- With Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo, and likely Federico Valverde out, Real is missing key offensive players, which is why a Bilbao +1.5 handicap seems plausible despite Madrid being the favorite.
- Both teams to score: No is supported by Real’s three clean sheets in four matches and Nico Williams’ lack of threat on the counterattack.
Daniel Carvajal’s farewell, Ernesto Valverde’s final chapter with Bilbao, and new doubts surrounding Vinicius Junior give Real’s season finale at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu more significance than a mere final standings table could convey. Real Madrid wraps up its La Liga season on Saturday against Athletic Bilbao, in an atmosphere that feels more than just celebratory. Álvaro Arbeloa’s team sits securely in second place with 83 points, well ahead of Villarreal but clearly behind champions Barcelona. Bilbao is in twelfth place with 45 points, level on points with Espanyol and just two points ahead of Sevilla.
- Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
- Date and time: May 23, 2026, 9:00 PM
- Competition: La Liga (Matchday 38)
The market sees Madrid as the clear favorite at home, with a home win priced at around 69%, but given the injury situation, caution is warranted. Vinicius Junior is likely to be out, Rodrygo and Federico Valverde are on the list of key absentees, and with Nico Williams out, Bilbao loses its biggest threat on the counterattack.
Real Form & Record Check
Real’s 1-0 win in Seville was more efficient than dominant. Vinicius Junior decided the game early, after which Álvaro Arbeloa managed the match through control rather than pressure. Following the 2-0 home win against Oviedo, this confirmed that Real can still close out games professionally, even if their attacking rhythm has recently seemed more functional than fluid. In recent league form, the 2-0 loss in Barcelona remains the clear blemish.
The 2-0 win at Espanyol and the 1-1 draw at Real Betis paint a picture of a defensively more stable team that isn’t quite letting loose up front. Rodrygo, Éder Militão, and Ferland Mendy are out, Federico Valverde is a doubtful starter, and Vinicius Junior is unlikely to play.
Real is likely to line up in a 4-3-3, as a prediction rather than a confirmed starting lineup. Thibaut Courtois, wearing number 1, would start in goal, with Daniel Carvajal (2), Antonio Rüdiger (22), Dean Huijsen (24), and Fran García (20) forming the back four. The absences of Éder Militão, Ferland Mendy, Federico Valverde, and Rodrygo are significant setbacks, which is why Dean Huijsen (No. 24), Fran García (No. 20), Eduardo Camavinga (No. 6), and Brahim Díaz (No. 21) are considered likely alternatives. Vinicius Junior is also expected to be out, so Kylian Mbappé (No. 10) and Franco Mastantuono (No. 30) could lead the attack.
Bilbao Form & Record Check
Bilbao at least halted their downward trend with a 1-1 draw against Celta Vigo, coming back after an early goal conceded, thanks to Iñaki Williams following an assist from Yuri Berchiche. The second-half response was crucial, but the match also extended a defensive pattern that has too often left Ernesto Valverde’s team playing catch-up in recent weeks. The team’s recent league form remains inconsistent and falls short of the standard Bilbao set during their stronger spells under Valverde. Defeats against Espanyol, Valencia, and Atlético Madrid exposed a lack of consistency, while the 4-2 win at Alavés showed that this team can still hurt opponents when a game opens up. Without Nico Williams and Beñat Prados, the balance between pressing, width, and control in midfield is harder to maintain.
Bilbao is expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation. Unai Simón (No. 1) will start in goal behind Yeray Álvarez (No. 5) and Aymeric Laporte (No. 14). With Beñat Prados and Nico Williams out due to long-term injuries, Mikel Jauregizar (No. 18) is likely to continue in midfield. Álex Berenguer, wearing number 7, is considered the likely starter on the wing, while Gorka Guruzeta, wearing number 11, will lead the attack.
Real – Bilbao Head-to-Head & Statistics
The last five head-to-head matches clearly favor Madrid: four wins, while Athletic Bilbao’s only victory came in 2024. The most recent clash in December 2025 ended 3-0 for Madrid in Bilbao; prior to that, Madrid won 1-0 in 2025, 2-0 in 2024, and 2-0 in 2023. This pattern is useful for this prediction because Madrid scored in all five games and Athletic Bilbao conceded a goal in every one. At the same time, every match in this series went Under 3.5 goals, and four of the five went Over 1.5 goals. This points more toward a controlled advantage for Madrid than a game that will inevitably slip completely out of Athletic Bilbao’s grasp.
