Key Facts
- A win would extend Arsenal’s lead over Manchester City to five points – a must-win for the league leaders in the title race.
- Arsenal is in good form: five league games without a loss, including controlled wins against Newcastle, Fulham, and West Ham.
- Burnley continues to struggle on the road: 18 consecutive away games in which they’ve conceded goals and four losses in their last five league matches.
- The absences of Jordan Beyer and Josh Cullen weaken Burnley’s defensive areas, where Arsenal builds particular pressure through Bukayo Saka and Viktor Gyökeres.
- In four of the last five head-to-head matches, Arsenal has scored in the first half and has not failed to earn points in any of those games—a recurring pattern.
- Arsenal’s average of around 1.4 goals per game, combined with Burnley’s weak offense, points to a tight, controlled match, not a high-scoring spectacle.
Arsenal heads into Monday night’s match against Burnley at the Emirates Stadium with the title race breathing down their necks. A win would put Mikel Arteta’s team five points clear of Manchester City, and Martin Zubimendi’s statement that there is “no other option” but three points also shapes expectations in the betting markets.
captures the mood surrounding a squad reaching for its first league title in 22 years. Burnley arrives in 19th place with 21 points, and Mike Jackson desperately needs a response from a team that recently drew 2-2 with Aston Villa and is struggling to secure wins. Arsenal won the first leg 2-0 at Turf Moor in November, and the overall context is clear: the league leaders at home against a relegation candidate that remains too easy to beat on the road.
- Venue: Emirates Stadium, London
- Date and time: May 18, 2026, 9:00 PM
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 37)
The betting market makes Arsenal the clear favorite, which is why the more interesting angles lie in the game’s pace and goal difference rather than a simple home win. A draw at halftime makes perfect sense, as both teams have tended toward low-scoring opening phases in their recent league matches. Under 3.5 goals also fits with Arsenal’s controlled title run.
Arsenal Form & Record Check
Arsenal’s most recent league win, a 1-0 victory at West Ham, wasn’t an offensive spectacle, but exactly the kind of result title contenders need in May.
Leandro Trossard decided the match late on with an assist from Martin Ødegaard, while David Raya and the defense once again kept a clean sheet. The performance was controlled, if not spectacular, which is likely to be relevant for goal markets. Across all competitions, Arsenal are unbeaten in five games and have won four of them, including league victories over Newcastle, Fulham, and West Ham, as well as a Champions League semifinal win against Atlético Madrid. Mikel Merino remains sidelined following foot surgery, while Riccardo Calafiori has reportedly returned to team training and could give Arteta more flexibility in his lineup.
Arsenal are likely to line up in a 4-2-3-1, with David Raya – 1 in goal and William Saliba – 2 alongside Gabriel – 6 in central defense. Mikel Merino is out following foot surgery, so Declan Rice – 41 and Myles Lewis-Skelly – 49 are expected to form the defensive midfield. Further forward, Bukayo Saka – 7, Martin Ødegaard – 8, and Viktor Gyökeres – 14 appear to be central to the plan.
Burnley Form & Record Check
Burnley’s 2-2 draw against Aston Villa at least showed fighting spirit: Jaidon Anthony scored early, and Zian Flemming responded promptly after Villa had turned the game around. Hannibal provided the assist for Flemming, giving Burnley a rare attacking opportunity. Nevertheless, they conceded goals again in this match, and this pattern is becoming increasingly hard to ignore. Their recent league form is poor: losses to Leeds, Manchester City, Nottingham Forest, and Brighton prior to the draw against Villa. Away from home, the situation is even more dire, as Burnley has lost four straight away games and conceded goals in 18 consecutive away matches. Jordan Beyer and Josh Cullen are out, which weakens precisely the areas where Arsenal usually applies particular pressure.
Burnley is likely to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Max Weiß – 13 in goal. With Jordan Beyer out and Connor Roberts listed as injured, Axel Tuanzebe – 6 and Kyle Walker – 2 should take the key defensive positions. Josh Cullen’s prolonged absence suggests that Florentino – 16 and Lesley Ugochukwu – 8 will anchor the midfield, while Zian Flemming – 19 is expected to lead the attack.
Arsenal – Burnley Head-to-Head & Stats
The last five meetings clearly favor Arsenal: four wins and one draw. In November 2025, Arsenal won 2-0 away at Burnley, following a 5-0 away victory in 2024 and a 3-1 home win in 2023. The only exception was the scoreless 0-0 draw at Arsenal in 2022. Arsenal regularly gets off to a strong start in this matchup: In four of the last five meetings, the Gunners scored in the first half, and they didn’t lose any of those games. Burnley, on the other hand, is still waiting for a single win during this period and failed to score in the early stages of those matches.
