Key Facts
- Leeds is unbeaten in seven league games and has been very strong at home (most recently 3-0 against Wolves, 3-1 against Burnley).
- Brighton sits in 7th place with 53 points and is just two points behind a European spot, which adds extra urgency to the away game.
- Kaoru Mitoma’s thigh injury weakens Brighton’s key speed option on the left flank and hampers the visitors’ quick transition play.
- Danny Welbeck remains Brighton’s central striker (13 PL goals in 24 starts); Dominic Calvert-Lewin also poses a goal threat for Leeds—chances are expected on both sides.
- Four of the last five head-to-head matches have seen under 3.5 goals, and Brighton is unbeaten in those five encounters, a H2H pattern that could persist despite Leeds’ form.
- Leeds are missing key players in Gruev, Bogle, Okafor, and Gudmundsson; additionally, Ampadu and Struijk are carrying knocks, which increases the risk of imbalances in midfield and forces Farke to make changes.
Daniel Farke has made no secret of the fact that avoiding relegation is not the end of Leeds’ ambitions, and that very attitude will face a real test on Sunday when Brighton visits Elland Road. Leeds has already accomplished the most important task of their return season, while Fabian Hürzeler brings a squad that still has its sights firmly set on European football.
- Venue: Elland Road, Leeds
- Date and Time: May 17, 2026, 4:00 PM
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 37)
Kaoru Mitoma’s absence weakens Brighton’s wing play, but Danny Welbeck and Dominic Calvert-Lewin still suggest goals for both sides. If the pace picks up early, Over 3.5 goals becomes a more interesting, albeit riskier, approach.
Leeds Form & Record Check
Leeds’ 1-1 draw at Tottenham wasn’t a spectacle, but it showed once again why the team has stayed clear of the relegation battle so far. They fell behind, stayed in the game, and secured a point thanks to Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s penalty. Their unbeaten streak continues, and it fits the image of a team that’s becoming increasingly hard to knock off course. At home at Elland Road, the response has been even more pronounced recently: Leeds defeated Wolves 3-0, then Burnley 3-1, before the Cup semifinal loss to Chelsea briefly took the momentum out of the overall picture. The home wins were based on direct play going forward, aggressive pressing, and strength on set pieces, rather than long stretches of sterile ball control.
The squad situation is less clear-cut. Ethan Ampadu is questionable due to illness, Pascal Struijk has hip issues, and Noah Okafor, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Jayden Bogle, and Ilia Gruev are out. Facundo Buonanotte is also ineligible to play against his former club, so Daniel James and Wilfried Gnonto could see increased playing time if Farke needs pace around the center forward.
Leeds is expected to line up in a 3-5-2, with Karl Darlow – 26 in goal and Joe Rodon – 6, Jaka Bijol – 15, and Sebastiaan Bornauw – 23 as a back three. Ethan Ampadu is doubtful due to illness, and Pascal Struijk has a hip issue, so this is more of a potential defensive adjustment than a confirmed lineup. Ilia Gruev is out with a meniscus injury, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Jayden Bogle, and Noah Okafor are also unavailable, and Facundo Buonanotte is ineligible to face his former club. That points to Anton Stach – 18, Sean Longstaff – 8, and Ao Tanaka – 22 in midfield, with Daniel James – 7 and James Justin – 24 likely to play on the wings. Further up front, the forecast sees Dominic Calvert-Lewin – 9 alongside Brenden Aaronson – 11, which would keep Leeds compact while giving Daniel Farke two central attacking options. Joël Piroe or Wilfried Gnonto could come off the bench, but this 3-5-2 remains the favorite for the starting lineup.
Brighton Form & Record Check
Brighton’s 3-0 win over Wolves was unusually direct: Jack Hinshelwood scored in the opening minute, Lewis Dunk added another shortly after, and Yankuba Minteh sealed the deal late on. It was exactly the kind of clean, controlled home performance Fabian Hürzeler needed after the 3-1 win at Newcastle, and it keeps the path to European competition open. In their last five league games, Brighton have beaten Burnley, Chelsea, and Wolves, drawn with Tottenham, and lost at Newcastle. The Seagulls have scored in all of those matches, which explains why the betting odds point to goals, even without Kaoru Mitoma. Danny Welbeck remains the central figure: 13 Premier League goals in 24 starts speak for themselves. The injury list remains long. Adam Webster and Stefanos Tzimas are out long-term, Diego Gómez is listed with a knee issue, and Kaoru Mitoma’s thigh injury robs Brighton of its most natural pace on the left flank. Nevertheless, Jack Hinshelwood’s resurgence in the final stretch of the season and Yankuba Minteh’s goal-scoring contributions offer Hürzeler various ways to break down the Leeds defense.
Brighton is likely to line up in a 4-2-3-1, with Bart Verbruggen – 1 in goal behind Ferdi Kadıoğlu – 24, Jan Paul van Hecke – 6, Lewis Dunk – 5, and Maxim De Cuyper – 29. In midfield, Carlos Baleba – 17 and Pascal Groß – 30 should form the backbone of a team still hoping for European qualification. With Adam Webster, Diego Gómez, Kaoru Mitoma, and Stefanos Tzimas listed as injured, the likely replacements come from the established starting lineup: Jan Paul van Hecke – 6 and Lewis Dunk – 5 in central defense, Carlos Baleba – 17 in midfield, and Solly March – 7 and Danny Welbeck – 18 in attack. Yankuba Minteh – 11 could also start on the wing.
Leeds – Brighton Head-to-Head & Stats
Brighton is unbeaten in the last five head-to-head matches, with two wins and three draws. The most recent meeting took place in November 2025, when Brighton won 3-0. Prior to that, the two teams drew 2-2 in 2023, Brighton won 1-0 in 2022, and the remaining two encounters in 2022 and 2021 ended 1-1 and goalless. Overall, these matches have been more controlled than chaotic. Four of the last five games had fewer than 3.5 goals, and the first halves were mostly close. Brighton scored in four of those five games, which illustrates why Leeds’ current improved league form must be weighed against their difficult recent record in this matchup.
