Key Facts
- Casemiro’s likely final appearance at Old Trafford adds an emotional dimension to the match; United have already secured Champions League qualification and are on the verge of finishing third.
- Carrick’s team has won three of its last four league matches (including 3-2 vs. Liverpool and 1-0 vs. Chelsea) and has shown tactical stability with high pressing and a solid defense.
- Nottingham Forest arrives with massive personnel issues: Murillo, Willy Boly, Ola Aina, Nicolò Savona, Hudson-Odoi, and Ndoye are out—weakening both the defense and the attack.
- In the last three head-to-head matches, the halftime scores were tied in each game, with United always scoring in the second half—suggesting a slow start and a late decision.
- Forest has scored at least one goal in four of the last five head-to-head matches; a United clean sheet depends more on Forest’s current injury situation than on H2H history.
- The odds for a United win are around 1.6; given Forest’s defensive struggles and United’s form, the handicap (~2.8) offers greater value according to the analysis.
Casemiro’s expected departure from Old Trafford adds the clearest emotional element to this Premier League clash. Manchester United hosts Nottingham on Sunday; Michael Carrick is on the verge of taking over as permanent manager, Champions League qualification is secured, and third place is all but guaranteed. Nottingham travels under Vítor Pereira, having already secured their Premier League status, with a depleted squad but with the opportunity to demonstrate the progress made in the second half of the season.
- Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester
- Date and time: May 17, 2026, 1:30 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 37)
The bookmakers see Manchester United as clear home favorites; the odds on a Manchester United win are around 1.6, and there is certainly substance to this beyond mere name recognition. Casemiro’s return, Bruno Fernandes chasing the assist record, and Nottingham’s absences of Murillo, Willy Boly, and Ola Aina all point strongly toward a home victory.
Manchester United Form & Record Check
The 0-0 draw at Sunderland was more of a lull than a slump, but it certainly highlighted the limitations of the attack when the rhythm is missing. Prior to that, Carrick’s team had defeated Liverpool 3-2, Brentford 2-1, and Chelsea 1-0 in the league. The scoreless draw at Sunderland still carried weight, especially since Senne Lammens is expected to continue in goal.
Carrick’s tactical setup makes Casemiro and Kobbie Mainoo look significantly more secure: The fullbacks are less exposed, and the pressing starts higher up the field.
Casemiro is fit in time for his final appearance at Old Trafford, while Matthijs de Ligt remains out and Benjamin Sesko is doubtful. Should Bryan Mbeumo start in the center, United are likely to rely heavily on Bruno Fernandes again for timing and build-up play.
Manchester United are likely to line up in a 4-2-3-1, with Senne Lammens – 31 in goal and a back four of Diogo Dalot – 2, Harry Maguire – 5, Lisandro Martínez – 6, and Luke Shaw – 23. Matthijs de Ligt remains sidelined with a back injury, so Harry Maguire – 5 should start alongside Lisandro Martínez – 6.
Nottingham Form & Record Check
Nottingham’s most recent league outing, a 1-1 draw against Newcastle, bore Pereira’s typical hallmarks: tenacious, slightly disjointed, but still dangerous in the closing stages. Elliot Anderson’s equalizer in the 88th minute kept the league-wide scoring streak alive, following previous wins at Chelsea (3-1) and against Sunderland (5-0). That’s strong league form for a team sitting in 16th place in the table, just one point ahead of Crystal Palace.
The concern is what the heavy workload has taken out of the squad. In the Europa League semifinals, Nottingham hit a major rough patch with a 4-0 loss at Aston Villa, after having won the first leg 1-0. Added to that is a long injury list: Murillo, Willy Boly, Ola Aina, Nicolò Savona, Callum Hudson-Odoi, and Dan Ndoye are out, while Morgan Gibbs-White has recently been training with a protective mask.
With John Victor out after knee surgery, Nottingham is expected to start with Matz Sels (No. 26) in a 3-4-2-1 formation. The back three is likely to consist of Nikola Milenković (No. 31), Jair Cunha (No. 23), and Morato (No. 4), as Murillo, Willy Boly, and Zach Abbott are all unavailable.
Ola Aina and Nicolò Savona are also out, so Neco Williams (No. 3) and Luca Netz (No. 25) seem set to start on the wings. With Ibrahim Sangaré struggling with fitness, Nicolás Domínguez (No. 16) and Elliot Anderson (No. 8) are likely to start, while Morgan Gibbs-White (No. 10) may return behind Taiwo Awoniyi (No. 9) wearing a face mask.
With Callum Hudson-Odoi and Dan Ndoye unavailable, Dilane Bakwa (No. 29) is the likely replacement in attack alongside Morgan Gibbs-White (No. 10). This is a cautious prediction rather than a confirmed starting lineup.
Manchester United – Nottingham Head-to-Head & Stats
Nottingham has the edge in the last five meetings: three wins, one draw, and the only loss was the 2024 FA Cup match. The most recent meeting in November 2025 ended 2-2, following Nottingham’s 1-0 victory over Manchester United in 2025 and a 3-2 win at Old Trafford in 2024. The 2-1 league win in 2023 also falls within this recent period.
The pattern isn’t limited to just results. In the last three matches, the score was tied at halftime, and Manchester United scored in the second half in all three games. Interestingly, Nottingham has also scored at least one goal in four of the last five meetings, which is why the question of whether a shutout victory is possible depends less on history and more on the current injury situation.
