Key Facts
- Nottingham is unbeaten in five games at the City Ground and has recently recorded strong home wins against Chelsea (3-1), Sunderland (5-0), and Burnley (4-1).
- Newcastle has lost three of its last away games and has conceded goals in five consecutive league matches – the visitors’ defensive weaknesses are clear.
- Significant injury concerns for Nottingham: Morgan Gibbs-White, Murillo, and Ola Aina are questionable, which further strains an already thin squad.
- Newcastle will have to do without Fabian Schär, Tino Livramento, Emil Krafth, and Lewis Miley, further weakening the defense; Howe will rely more heavily on Tonali and Guimarães.
- In the last five head-to-head matches, there have been more than 1.5 goals scored in each; both teams score regularly, which, given the current defensive issues, points to an open, high-scoring game.
- Betting odds give Newcastle a slight edge, but Forest’s home strength and Newcastle’s fragile away form suggest a Nottingham home win or at least a draw as a more reliable outcome.
The 4-0 loss at Aston Villa ended Nottingham’s run to the Europa League semifinals, and a turnaround must come quickly. Vítor Pereira is demanding a response, while Newcastle arrives in a different frame of mind following their victory over Brighton. Eddie Howe must stabilize a team that has been significantly less convincing on the road. At the City Ground, the pressure is clearly different: Nottingham, in 16th place, seems close to securing survival after a strong run in the league, while Newcastle, in 13th, is trying to keep faint hopes of a European spot alive. The first leg in October 2025 ended 2-0 in Newcastle’s favor, giving the visitors some momentum, even if current form doesn’t paint a clear picture.
- Venue: City Ground, Nottingham
- Date and time: May 10, 2026, 3:00 PM
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 36)
The market sees Newcastle as slight favorites, but Forest or a draw seems like the smarter bet because Pereira’s team is unbeaten in five games at the City Ground, while Newcastle has lost its last three away league matches. Over 2.5 goals also stands out: Forest’s matches are often high-scoring, and Newcastle has conceded in five consecutive games.
Nottingham Form & Record Check
Thursday’s 4-0 loss at Aston Villa highlighted just how thin Vítor Pereira’s squad has become. Morgan Gibbs-White and Ola Aina were unavailable, Murillo was played at a risk, and Pereira admitted that the injury list is noticeably hampering competition for spots. The physical and mental toll of European competition cannot simply be ignored. In the Premier League, however, Nottingham has recently shown a completely different side: they defeated Chelsea 3-1, thrashed Sunderland 5-0, and beat Burnley 4-1. In their last five league games, they have secured four wins and one draw. They are unbeaten in five home games, and Morgan Gibbs-White has been the linchpin during this run whenever he’s been fit.
Nottingham could line up in a 4-4-1-1, with Stefan Ortega – 27 behind Jair Cunha – 23 and Nikola Milenković – 31. Nicolás Domínguez – 16 and Elliot Anderson – 8 are likely to form the midfield duo, while Igor Jesus – 19 plays behind Chris Wood – 11. With Murillo out, Morato – 4 is the obvious choice in defense, and Ola Aina’s injury could mean Neco Williams – 3 has to step in again as a fullback. Callum Hudson-Odoi is out for the rest of the season, and Morgan Gibbs-White remains doubtful, so James McAtee – 24 is likely to continue in an attacking role.
Newcastle Form & Record Check
Newcastle has at least stabilized with a 3-1 home win against Brighton, thanks to William Osula, Dan Burn, and Harvey Barnes, and Eddie Howe desperately needed this response. Nevertheless, a single result hasn’t reversed the underlying downward trend. Prior to that, the Magpies had lost four league games in a row and conceded goals in each of their last five league matches. The bigger concern lies away from St. James’ Park, where Newcastle has lost its last three away league games and continues to concede goals. Injury worries add to the mix: Fabian Schär, Tino Livramento, and Emil Krafth are out, and Lewis Miley is also sidelined with a broken fibula. Howe is thus increasingly reliant on Sandro Tonali and Bruno Guimarães to control matches that the defense alone cannot handle.
Newcastle is likely to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation again, with Nick Pope – 1 in goal behind Malick Thiaw – 12 and Sven Botman – 4, while Bruno Guimarães – 39 and Sandro Tonali – 8 form the midfield. With Fabian Schär, Tino Livramento, Emil Krafth, and Lewis Miley sidelined, Kieran Trippier – 2 is expected to start on the right, and Anthony Gordon – 10 and William Osula – 18 are the most likely options up front.
Nottingham – Newcastle Head-to-Head & Stats
The recent run clearly favors Newcastle. The Magpies are unbeaten in their last five meetings, winning four of them in regulation time, while the fifth was the 2024 League Cup match, which ended in a draw after regulation and went to Newcastle only in a penalty shootout. The most recent meeting in October 2025 ended 2-0, which is why Nottingham is looking to break an unfavorable pattern rather than establish a balanced rivalry. Another recurring theme is the scoring prowess on both sides. Each of the last five matchups has produced more than 1.5 goals; Newcastle has scored in all five games, and Nottingham has managed at least one goal in four consecutive matches against the Magpies, though they have yet to secure a win. Interestingly, this pattern suggests that chances could arise for both sides this time as well, even if the past alone does not fully explain Nottingham’s currently stronger home form.
