Key Facts
- St. Pauli is fighting to avoid relegation, trailing Werder Bremen by one point, while Freiburg, as a Europa League quarterfinalist, is four points behind a European spot—both sides are playing with contrasting motivations.
- Freiburg has conceded at least one goal in five consecutive competitive matches, but showed offensive potential with a 5-1 win over Genk; their league form remains weak, however, with just one point from three Bundesliga matches.
- St. Pauli are missing three regular starters in key positions—Karol Mets, Manolis Saliakas, and James Sands—which significantly weakens their defense and benefits Freiburg’s attack.
- Freiburg has won four of the last five head-to-head matches without a single draw—a clear pattern that suggests a draw is unlikely at the Millerntor.
- The last three meetings all saw over 2.5 goals but remained under 3.5 – a pattern suggesting a high-scoring yet controlled match and supporting a bet on over 2.5 goals.
- Freiburg’s last two matches were tied at halftime, and St. Pauli’s deficit often didn’t materialize until after the 60th minute – a halftime bet on a draw therefore has statistical merit.
Following their impressive 5-1 win over Genk, SC Freiburg travel to the Millerntor as Europa League quarterfinalists, and Philipp Treu returns to his former club, adding a personal touch to the matchup. For the two coaches, however, the game holds very different significance: Alexander Blessin needs points to avoid relegation, while Julian Schuster is chasing the next step toward European competition. St. Pauli heads into the weekend one point behind Werder Bremen, having picked up seven points from three league games before suffering a 2-0 loss in Gladbach. Freiburg won the first leg 2-1 in November and sits four points behind Eintracht Frankfurt, though things haven’t been going smoothly in the league lately: just one point from their last three Bundesliga matches.
- Venue: Millerntor Stadium, Hamburg
- Date and time: March 22, 2026, 5:30 PM
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 27)
Bookmakers see this as an evenly matched contest, which is why the seemingly safe bet on Freiburg looks attractive. St. Pauli is weakened by absences (Mets, Saliakas, Sands), while Freiburg’s losses were narrow; furthermore, the last two Freiburg matches were tied at halftime, which supports a halftime bet on a draw.
St. Pauli Form & Record Check
The 2-0 loss at Borussia Mönchengladbach was a setback, especially since St. Pauli had recently stabilized. Nevertheless, the performance followed a familiar pattern: Blessin’s team held their own for an hour but lost all their attacking punch after falling behind. This is no coincidence, as they also failed to score in the previous home draw against Eintracht Frankfurt. That said, their recent league form isn’t as bleak as the table suggests. The wins in Hoffenheim and at home against Werder Bremen showed that the Hamburg-based side can win tight, physical matches. The rise of Joel Chima Fujita and Tomoya Ando is certainly a sign of genuine development within the squad. However, the personnel situation is a cause for concern: Karol Mets, Manolis Saliakas, and James Sands are missing in key positions.
FC St. Pauli is likely to stick with Alexander Blessin’s tried-and-true 3-4-2-1 formation again this time, though this is merely a prediction. Nikola Vasilj (No. 22) will likely be in goal, with Adam Dzwigala (No. 25), Hauke Wahl (No. 5), and Tomoya Ando (No. 15). With Karol Mets out, Ando—who has recently gained significant prominence—is the most likely candidate to complete the back three. On the wings, Arkadiusz Pyrka (No. 11) and Lars Ritzka (No. 21) would provide the necessary width, while in central midfield, Eric Smith (No. 8) and Jackson Irvine (No. 7) are expected to provide stability. Up front, Joel Chima Fujita (No. 16) and Mathias Pereira Lage (No. 28) could operate around Danel Sinani (No. 10). With Manolis Saliakas, James Sands, and Ricky-Jade Jones unavailable, Taichi Hara (No. 18) is the leading option in attack. Interestingly, Blessin has recently praised his physical presence.
Freiburg Form & Record Check
Freiburg travels with the best result of the month under their belt: The 5-1 win over Genk secured their place in the Europa League quarterfinals, with Matthias Ginter, Igor Matanovic, Vincenzo Grifo, Yuito Suzuki, and Maximilian Eggestein all playing decisive roles in a performance not seen in the league recently. Julian Schuster got both quality and determination from his team. Bundesliga form remains the big question mark: Freiburg lost 1-0 at home to Union Berlin, following a 3-3 draw against Bayer Leverkusen and a 2-0 win at Eintracht Frankfurt. So the offensive potential is there, but it doesn’t reliably come through week after week. On top of that, Freiburg has conceded at least one goal in five consecutive competitive matches, which keeps the game at the Millerntor wide open despite Thursday’s momentum.
Philipp Treu (29) is likely to retain his spot on the right when he returns to his former club St. Pauli, and SC Freiburg will probably stick with their usual 4-2-3-1 formation under Julian Schuster. That remains a prediction, but Noah Atubolu (No. 1) should line up behind Matthias Ginter (No. 28), Philipp Lienhart (No. 3), and Jordy Makengo (No. 33), while Maximilian Eggestein (No. 8) and Patrick Osterhage (No. 6) anchor the midfield. Further up front, the expected trio of Yuito Suzuki (No. 14), Johan Manzambi (No. 44), and Vincenzo Grifo (No. 32) would be responsible for supporting Lucas Höler (No. 9), with Vincenzo Grifo (No. 32) handling much of the creative work. Max Rosenfelder and Daniel-Kofi Kyereh remain sidelined, so the alternatives are limited. However, Christian Günter (No. 30) and Nicolas Höfler (No. 27) offer experienced options should Schuster decide to make some changes.
St. Pauli – Freiburg Head-to-Head & Statistics
The most recent head-to-head matches clearly favor SC Freiburg. The Breisgau side has won four of the last five encounters against FC St. Pauli, with not a single match ending in a draw. Freiburg last won 2-1 in November 2025. St. Pauli’s only bright spot during this period was the 3-0 away win in September 2024, which still stands as more of an outlier than the norm. Interestingly, there is also a notable scoring pattern: The last three matchups all saw over 2.5 goals, yet all five of the last five games remained under 3.5 goals. This rivalry thus tends to settle into a tight middle ground. Even the home game in February 2025 was decided by a single goal, as Freiburg narrowly prevailed 1-0.
