Key Facts
- City go into the game in second place (59 points), five points behind Arsenal, while Forest are 17th, just two points above the relegation zone.
- Despite periods of limited chances, City remain stable: three of their last five wins have come by a single goal, and they have kept a clean sheet in three of their last four home games.
- Forest are in a goal drought: just one goal from 66 shots in three games; without Wood and with Lucca ineffective, the creative burden falls on Gibbs White and Anderson.
- For City, Haaland is again doubtful after a training knock, while Gvardiol and Kovacic are also out; Semenyo could start as a number nine and has scored six goals in eleven appearances since January.
- The injury situation favors City -1.5 (1.85): Forest are missing both keepers Sels and John Victor as well as Savona, while City recently beat Fulham 3-0 at home.
- City won the last league match in December 2025 at City Ground 2-1, which is why Forest’s double chance X2 is classified as a close, risky value scenario at 3.35 despite the relegation battle.
Five points behind Arsenal, a title race that allows no slack – and on the other hand, a relegation battle that punishes every mistake: it is precisely in this tense atmosphere that Manchester City welcomes Nottingham Forest to the Premier League. Guardiola’s team is second with 59 points and is coming off a strong run in the league, even if the recent 1-0 win at Leeds was more about control than brilliance. Forest is in 17th place with 27 points, just two points ahead of the bottom three, and simply cannot afford to play it safe.
- Venue: Etihad Stadium, Manchester
- Date and time: March 4, 2026, 8:30 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 29)
Man City Form & Record Check
City’s last five games across all competitions read like those of a team that is working its way through the title race without much fuss, but not always with maximum ease. They beat Leeds 1-0, with Semenyo scoring shortly before halftime, then City defended calmly, a performance that Guardiola described as tense and lacking in chances. Before that, the 2-1 win against Newcastle and the 2-1 win at Liverpool showed resilience, as both games remained open until late. At home in the league, the 3-0 win against Fulham had the familiar rhythm of increasing pressure until the opponent gave in, and the 2-0 FA Cup win against Salford City was a serious job done without spectacle.
The bottom line is that City wins even when they don’t produce a torrent of clear chances, which can be a real plus in a tightly scheduled phase, especially with Newcastle in the cup and Real Madrid in Europe coming up. However, if Haaland is once again unavailable, the task of turning dominance into distance will fall even more on Semenyo, Foden, Bernardo Silva, Doku, and Cherki.
Guardiola is likely to stick to his usual 4-2-3-1 formation, which becomes a 3-2-4-1 with the ball. Lewis will move in alongside Rodri to control the transitions and push City far forward. Donnarumma should start behind Dias and Guéhi, while Aït Nouri provides natural width on the left. Foden and Cherki are expected to provide the ideas, with Savinho pulling wide on the right wing. The absences set the tone, with Gvardiol still out with a broken shin and Kovacic also sidelined, making Reijnders the most likely partner for Rodri. The bigger question is Haaland, who is still being assessed after a training knock and could be out again, in which case Semenyo would start as center forward. O’Reilly is also a doubt, which could thin out the rotation in midfield a little.
Nottingham Form & Record Check
Forest’s recent results in the league and Europe show a team that can still dish it out, but rarely does so over long periods. They lost 2-1 at Brighton on Sunday, despite Gibbs White scoring, and the 1-0 defeat to Liverpool a week earlier was another reminder that small details often make the difference in their league games. Even the 0-0 draw against Wolves, in which they racked up the shots, ended in frustration rather than relief. Interestingly, the performances weren’t completely passive, as they’ve generated a fair amount of volume under Pereira, but the shot selection was often poor and the strikers were too rarely served up really high-quality chances. Wood’s absence continues to weigh heavily, Lucca has not been convincing, and the creative burden repeatedly falls on Gibbs White and Anderson. To make matters worse, Forest has to juggle injuries in goal, with John Victor and Sels out of action and Ortega unavailable for this away trip, making the defensive base look shaky even before kick-off.
Pereira is likely to stick with his familiar 4-2-3-1 formation, with Gunn behind a back four of Aina, Milenković, Murillo, and Williams. The double six of Sangaré and Anderson will be tasked with blocking City’s central passing lanes and covering Gibbs White’s back so that he can act as the most important link in the number 10 position. Hutchinson and Hudson Odoi are the most likely candidates to act as passing options in transition. Up front, Jesus is planned as the target man. However, this is by no means a fixed starting eleven, as Wood is still out after knee surgery, so the striker position could still switch between Jesus, Awoniyi, or Lucca depending on the plan. Sels and John Victor are out in goal, and Ortega is carrying a minor calf problem, making Gunn the obvious choice. Savona’s knee injury limits Pereira’s options in defense, with Morato and Boly the obvious alternatives.
Man City – Nottingham Head-to-head & statistics
