Key Facts
- Udinese go into the game in 12th place (32 points), while Florence are 16th (24) and looking down the table – which makes every point particularly valuable for the visitors.
- Udinese has fallen into a slump after two wins, with three league defeats in a row; Davis is still out, which means Buksa and Zaniolo are particularly in demand in front of goal.
- Florence brings offensive momentum with it: it has scored in 12 consecutive games across all competitions, and Kean is underpinning that with his own scoring streak – that can tip close games.
- Extra time in the European Cup (despite advancing) shortens Florence’s recovery time; The absences of Gosens, Solomon, and Lezzerini limit the options, although de Gea remains a high-quality solution.
- Head-to-head matches provide a clear goal pattern: Udinese has conceded goals in each of the last five matches, with each game seeing over 1.5 goals and four of the five seeing over 2.5.
- On the betting side, streaks support the goal markets: Udinese has scored in four of its last five league games, Florence has scored in every game recently – plus odds of around 2.4 for an away win with a close draw margin.
Before we get into tactics or trends, there is something else hanging over this Monday evening in Udine: Udinese and AC Florence are involved in a memorial for Astori and a cardiac screening initiative surrounding the game. In sporting terms, Kosta Runjaić’s Udinese, currently 12th in the table with 32 points, face Paolo Vanoli’s AC Florence, who are 16th in the table with 24 points and looking down the table.
- Venue: Bluenergy Stadium – Stadio Friuli, Udine
- Date and time: March 2, 2026, 8:45 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (matchday 27)
The betting case starts with AC Florence’s reliability in front of goal: they have scored in 12 consecutive games across all competitions, and Kean has confirmed this in Serie A with his own scoring streak. Udinese have conceded goals in three consecutive league games and will have to continue without Davis. Nevertheless, Udinese has scored in four of its last five league games – that keeps “Both teams to score: Yes” and “Over 2.5 goals” in the running, especially if fatigue sets in for AC Florence after its European Cup evening with extra time in the final stages, opening up space.
Udinese Calcio Form & Record Check
Udinese’s last month in the league has been marked by small details that almost always end up going against them. They lost 1-0 in Bologna after conceding a penalty in the second half, followed by a 2-1 home defeat to Sassuolo and a 2-1 defeat in Lecce. This is all the more bitter because they had previously enjoyed a much more consistent run, including a 1-0 win against Roma and a 3-1 away win in Verona. What makes the slump so unpleasant is that Runjaić’s team does not seem completely toothless, but the rhythm in attack is shaky, and the protection in front of the back line does not hold up as soon as the game is stretched out. Added to this is the personnel situation: Davis is missing, Solet is unavailable, and Zanoli is out long term. This means that the responsibility lies heavily with Buksa and Zaniolo to convert decent phases into goals, rather than just creating pressure that fizzles out without reward.
Runjaić is likely to stick with Udinese’s usual 3-5-2 formation, with Okoye in goal and a back three of Kristensen, Kabasele, and Bertola. Ehizibue and Zemura will provide width as wingbacks, while Piotrowski and Karlström will set the pace in the center alongside Atta. Up front, the prediction is that Zaniolo will play behind Buksa and focus on quick, direct combinations. Solet’s adductor problem makes Bertola the likely replacement in defense, and Zanoli’s long-term absence keeps the pecking order at wingback positions skewed in Ehizibue’s favor. The bigger concern is Davis, who remains sidelined, leaving Buksa as the clear target man in attack. Bayo and Gueye are the more obvious alternatives during the game if Udinese needs a different profile late on.
Florence Form & Record Check
AC Florence’s recent results show a team that is doing its job in Serie A and is just picking up speed up front. They beat Pisa 1-0 and Como 2-1, and drew 2-2 with Torino. In the Conference League, they won 3-0 away at Jagiellonia and then lost 4-2 at home after extra time, but progressed 5-4 on aggregate. The common thread is goals, and Kean’s run in the league underlines that. However, this moment of European terror is also a warning sign, because it showed how quickly control can be lost when a game tips over and becomes chaotic. Vanoli has to manage the short recovery time after extra time, and the absences of Gosens, Solomon, and Lezzerini limit the options, even if de Gea remains a high-level alternative in goal. With Torino three points ahead and Cremonese level on points, AC Florence should keep an eye on the league table to stay on course; it’s about taking something away, not just putting in a decent performance.
Vanoli is likely to stick with his expected 4-4-2 formation, with de Gea starting behind Dodô, Comuzzo, Pongracic, and Parisi. This seems like a stopgap solution to some extent, because Lezzerini is out and Gosens is unavailable, so Parisi is the most likely replacement on the left. Against the ball, the team should remain compact, with the full-backs providing width when in possession. In midfield, Harrison and Fazzini are expected to be the hard-working runners on the wings, with Mandragora and Fagioli in the center, although Fagioli will probably be tasked with feeding the two up front early on. Up front, Gudmundsson and Kean are expected to pair up, with Gudmundsson likely to drop into the spaces and link up play, while Kean stays higher up. Solomon’s absence takes away the classic wing options, so the roles on the flanks could be a tad more conservative.
Udinese Calcio – Florence Head-to-head & Statistics
AC Florence has come out on top in the last five head-to-head matches with three wins, including a 5-1 victory in December 2025 and a 3-2 win at Udinese in May 2025. Udinese’s best recent response was a 2-1 away win in 2024, and there was also a 2-2 draw in 2024, with the series beginning with a 2-0 win for AC Florence in 2023. The patterns are hard to ignore: Udinese has conceded goals in all five games, and every game has gone over 1.5 goals, with four out of five also going over 2.5. Interestingly, the first halves have often been controlled, with four out of five under 1.5 goals, before the games opened up after the break. This imbalance in favor of the second half fits with a recent trend of Udinese losing the closing stages in this fixture, which is why management could once again decide the points in the final minutes.
