Important Facts
- Aston Villa is third, just three points behind Man City and three ahead of Man United; Brighton (14th) is stuck between Palace just above and Tottenham within striking distance.
- Brighton has only won one league game since the beginning of December and has conceded goals in every game recently, while Villa remains in the top 3 despite some wobbles and is usually more in control at home.
- Villa’s midfield crisis with Kamara, Tielemans, and McGinn (and probably Barkley) out could weaken their possession and counter-pressing, while Brighton will have to improvise defensively without van Hecke and Webster.
- In the last five head-to-head matches, Villa has won three times and four times there have been over 2.5 goals; the game often opens up after the break, with Brighton scoring in three consecutive games in the second half.
- Goals fit the trends as a betting approach: Villa has scored in three consecutive games and in 80% of its most recent matches, while Brighton has scored in four in a row but conceded in all five of its most recent games.
A 4-3 result like in the first leg in December 2025 sticks in the mind – and that same sense of chaos and opportunity fits the bill again this time around when Aston Villa host Brighton at Villa Park on Wednesday evening. Unai Emery’s side remain third in the Premier League and are stuck in a tight corridor, three points behind Manchester City and three points ahead of Manchester United. Brighton are 14th in the table under Fabian Hürzeler and can’t afford to slip up: Crystal Palace are just above them, while Tottenham are within striking distance below. The betting market clearly favors Villa at home, which is understandable, even if the game could still have its dirty phases. Much revolves around Aston Villa winning, combined with goals, because Brighton have conceded goals without pause recently and Villa’s offensive options can punish that. At the same time, Brighton’s ability to put the ball in the net themselves means that “Both teams to score: Yes” and “Over 2.5 goals” remain very realistic.
- Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham
- Date and time: February 11, 2026, 8:30 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 26)
However, the better value here could be to combine Villa with goals: Brighton has conceded in every game in their recent run, and Villa has enough pace and ideas in Rogers, Sancho, and Abraham to take advantage of that. Nevertheless, Villa’s absences in midfield can open up space during transitions, which is why “Both teams to score” and “Over 2.5 goals” are good bets, as this matchup often plays out.
Aston Villa Form & Record Check
Villa go into this game on the back of a 1-1 draw at Bournemouth, a game that had a lot to do with Martínez. He had to be alert on several occasions after Rogers had put them ahead. Before that, there was the frustrating 0-1 home defeat to Brentford in the league, which confirmed a trend of recent weeks: often tight first halves and a team that sometimes takes too long to translate control into really clear chances. In Europe, however, they found a way and beat Salzburg 3-2. In recent weeks, the best version of Emery’s team has been seen away from home, one might say. The composed 2-0 league win at Newcastle and the 1-0 win at Fenerbahçe in the Europa League show that they can manage phases of the game well. The concern is how much the absence of central midfielders, including Kamara, Tielemans, and McGinn, will change the feel of possession and counter-pressing. Interestingly, the loan situation surrounding Elliott also adds an extra nuance to the selection, especially when minutes are scarce.
Emery is likely to stick with his familiar 4-2-3-1, with Martínez in goal and Cash, Konsa, Torres, and Maatsen in the back four. The forecast sees Onana and Luiz as the double six, which gives Villa the basis to run early and combine through midfield.
In front of them, Sancho and Buendía should repeatedly cut inside around Rogers, with Abraham planned as the center forward. The depth in midfield is the clear sticking point: Kamara, Tielemans, and McGinn are still out, and according to reports, Barkley will also have to sit out, so Bogarde is the most obvious backup when fresh legs are needed. García remains unavailable at the back, while Alysson is missing on the wing. If Emery wants more punch up front, Watkins or Bailey are the most likely alternatives to reshuffle the front four.
Brighton form & record check
Brighton’s most recent league appearance, a 0-1 home defeat to Crystal Palace, pretty much summed up the mood around the club: often too timid on the ball, then punished mercilessly after a defensive error, and the discontent in the stands was clearly audible. This came after two consecutive league draws, both 1-1 against Everton and Bournemouth, in which Brighton had long periods of control but too rarely created the chances to really capitalize on their dominance. It is now hard to overlook the fact that the first halves are often low on goals. The most notable result in this recent series was the 2-1 win at Manchester United in the FA Cup, an indication that they can pick up the pace and be more courageous in transition moments. In the league, the whole thing seems less effective, and at the back, the injuries to van Hecke and Webster complicate matters further because it puts more pressure on Dunk and the structure in front of him. When Baleba and Groß have to close down a lot of space and carry the build-up at the same time, Brighton quickly look stretched as soon as a game opens up.
Brighton are likely to line up in a 4-2-3-1, with Verbruggen behind a back four of Kadıoğlu, Dunk, Boscagli, and De Cuyper. In the double six, there is a lot to be said for Groß plus Baleba, which gives the Seagulls a calm playmaker and someone who wins the ball back. In front of them, Minteh and Mitoma are expected to provide momentum with their direct runs on the right and left alongside Rutter. Up front, Welbeck is the clear favorite to start. This basic formation may also be due to injuries: van Hecke and Webster are still missing in defense, Wieffer, Ayari, March, and Tzimas are not yet available, and Gómez is also expected to be unavailable. If Hürzeler wants fresh legs in midfield, Hinshelwood or Milner could support Groß and Baleba. O’Riley is also an obvious option to bring more creativity to the final third from the bench.
Aston Villa – Brighton Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The last five encounters have tended to go Aston Villa’s way, with three wins, one draw, and one win for Brighton, the most recent being that thriller in December 2025 at the Amex, which ended 4-3 to Villa. They also won 3-0 there in April 2025, while the last game at Villa Park in 2024 ended 2-2. Brighton’s only win in this series was a 1-0 home victory in 2024, and Villa’s 6-1 home win came in 2023. What’s more exciting is how these games unfold, as the first halves have often been evenly matched between the two, but after the break, things usually open up. Both teams regularly score after the break in this fixture, and Brighton have now scored in the second half against Villa in three consecutive games, while Villa have also conceded after the break in three consecutive head-to-head matches. With four of these five games going over 2.5 goals, recent history suggests a high-scoring affair is likely.
