Key Facts
- Chelsea are fifth with 43 points, just one point behind Man United; Leeds are 16th with 29, level on points with Tottenham and only three ahead of Forest.
- In the recent 3-1 win at Wolverhampton, Palmer scored three times in the first half despite groin problems; Chelsea’s four Premier League wins in a row underpin their top-four ambitions.
- Chelsea have conceded in each of their last five games and are missing Colwill and Adarabioyo in central defense; that supports Both teams to score: Yes.
- Leeds bounced back from their 4-0 thrashing by Arsenal with an important 3-1 win over Forest, but will be without the pace of Daniel James on the wing.
- The odds of 1.6 for a Chelsea win are in line with four league wins, while Leeds have conceded in eight of their last ten away games; Chelsea have won the second half three times recently.
- There have been no draws and four games with over 2.5 goals in the last five head-to-head matches; Leeds’ recent 3-1 win shows how quickly the tide can turn.
Chelsea return to Stamford Bridge on Tuesday evening with momentum and pressure in equal measure. Rosеньор’s team is fifth with 43 points, just one behind Manchester United, and a win would keep them on track in the chase for Champions League places. Leeds travel to 16th in the table with 29 points, level on points with Tottenham above them and three points ahead of Nottingham Forest – any result could significantly shift the situation. December 2025 was also a reminder that this fixture can hurt, as Leeds beat Chelsea 3-1 at Elland Road. Since then, Chelsea have looked more incisive in the league, most recently winning 3-1 at Wolves, with Palmer scoring three goals in the first half as he worked his way back from groin problems. Leeds, meanwhile, come into the game on the back of a 3-1 win over Forest, a fitting response after being thrashed 4-0 by Arsenal. Three factors that the betting market may be underestimating, even though it clearly favors Chelsea at home, are: Chelsea to win; Chelsea’s tendency to improve as the game progresses (which argues for “Chelsea to win in the second half”); and their recent habit of conceding goals – which leaves the door open for “Both teams to score: Yes,” even if the game overall tilts in Chelsea’s favor.
- Venue: Stamford Bridge, London
- Date and time: February 10, 2026, 8:30 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 26)
The bookmakers see Chelsea as the clear favorites: “Chelsea to win” is around 1.6 – which is in line with the league series that has pushed Roseniors’ values up from the early stages and puts Chelsea within striking distance of fourth place. The exciting value approaches are just off the headline because Chelsea has been strong in recent games: Their control after the break makes “Chelsea wins in the second half” plausible. At the same time, they have conceded in each of their last five games, and without Colwill and Adarabioyo, Leeds can still steal a goal – either through the direct power of Calvert Lewin or Okafor’s movement, which supports “Both teams to score: Yes.”
Chelsea Form & Record Check
Chelsea’s most recent league appearance at Wolverhampton was something like 45 minutes of seamless play, the best they’ve managed in quite some time. Palmer scored twice from the spot and then finished off a fluid attack before the break to complete his hat trick in a 3-1 win. It was a performance befitting a team chasing the top four, precisely because Chelsea punished mistakes immediately and then managed the game quite maturely. Nevertheless, the bigger picture of recent weeks, across all competitions, is a little messier at the back. Chelsea have won four of their last five games, including a 3-2 home win against West Ham and a 3-2 win at Napoli in the Champions League, but they have also conceded goals with almost clockwork regularity, even in their 1-0 defeat at Arsenal in the League Cup. This mixture is the reason why both teams scoring remains relevant even in a game that Chelsea should actually control.
In terms of selection, there is at least some tailwind from Roseniors’ statements that James is close to returning after an injury, which could bring more rhythm and width to the right side. Chelsea continue to have notable absences, with Colwill out long term, Adarabioyo also unavailable and Mudryk suspended. As a result, the balance often hangs on Caicedo and Fernández, who have to hold the structure together, while Palmer carries the creative load behind options such as João Pedro and Delap.
Rosenior is likely to stick with a 4-2-3-1, with Sánchez behind a back four of Gusto, Fofana, Chalobah, and Cucurella. In this prediction, Santos plays alongside Caicedo in the double six, designed to secure second balls and allow Palmer to work between the lines. Neto and Fernández would flank Palmer in the front three, with Pedro leading the line. This is only an expected starting XI, and depending on availability, the selection may still change. Colwill remains out long term, Adarabioyo is also unavailable, so Chelsea’s depth in central defense looks thin, even if Fofana and Chalobah start. Lavias’ fitness is a question mark, Mudryk is suspended and Gittens is injured, which suggests that Neto will keep his place. James is expected to be fit, so he could still provide pressure on the right side of defense.
Leeds Form & Record Check
Leeds has recovered in the league after a rough patch in the middle of winter, winning two of its last four games and drawing one. That’s exactly the kind of haul you need to stay out of the relegation zone. The 3-1 win against Nottingham Forest was particularly important because it showed calm and maturity after the heavy 4-0 home defeat to Arsenal. Interestingly, the goals came from different corners of the team, rather than one player having to play the savior. The game against Forest also showed how much damage Leeds can do when the fullbacks and runners get going. Bogle was on the scoresheet, Gruev delivered the decisive passes from deeper areas. Nevertheless, an away game at Chelsea is a different kind of test, and Leeds will have to travel without Daniel James, a noticeable loss for the pace of their transition game. If they want to score, much will depend on Calvert Lewin’s presence in the box, with support from Gnonto, Okafor, and Aaronson between the lines.
Farke is likely to stick with a back three, with Darlow the probable starter behind the trio of Rodon, Struijk, and Justin. Bogle on the right and Gudmundsson on the left should provide width, while Ampadu and Gruev are most likely to start as double sixes to keep Leeds stable in transition moments and quickly initiate attacks into the front three. Ahead of them, Aaronson and Okafor are predicted to work as indented playmakers around Calvert Lewin, with a fair amount of responsibility in pressing. The big question mark is James, who is still out with a thigh injury, which reduces the natural options for the wing and could make Gnonto the most important change of pace off the bench if Leeds needs more direct runs.
Chelsea – Leeds Head-to-Head & Statistics
The last five encounters show a clear pattern, with no draws and plenty of action. Leeds won the most recent meeting in December 2025, beating Chelsea 3-1, while Chelsea narrowly prevailed 3-2 in the FA Cup at Stamford Bridge in February 2024. These two games alone show how quickly this pairing can tip, even if one side appears stronger on paper. Going further back, Chelsea won 1-0 in 2023, then both teams exchanged clear away wins in 2022, with Leeds winning 3-0 and Chelsea winning 3-0. Across all five games, four saw more than 2.5 goals, but at the same time, there was a series of three consecutive games between 2022 and 2023 that remained under 3.5. This is a good indication of how much the pace depends on who scores first and how the game statistics develop afterwards.
