Important Facts
- Brighton is 13th with 31 points, Palace is 15th with 29 points; both are close enough to Tottenham that a derby win could quickly shift the table.
- Palace will likely have to do without Mateta, their top scorer with eight goals, who may undergo surgery for knee problems; Nketiah and Kamada are also missing, which means Strand Larsen will play in the center.
- Brighton has scored in five consecutive competitive games but has also conceded in each of them; Groß’ late goal against Everton was only enough for a 1-1 draw, while Welbeck provides stability as a reliable target man.
- Palace travel with twelve games without a win in all competitions, but showed morale in the 1-1 draw in Nottingham after falling behind early; Sarr stabilized with a penalty, but defensively they often get rolled over.
- In a direct comparison, both teams have scored in four of the last five games and three times there have been over 2.5 goals; Brighton are unbeaten at home in several games and are trading at 2.0.
- Statistically, goals are likely: 100% of Brighton’s games have seen over 1.5 goals, compared to 80% for Palace, which is why over 2.5 and BTTS remain plausible.
The fact that Mateta is likely to miss out with a knee problem, one that may even require surgery, immediately gives this derby a different edge. Brighton and Crystal Palace meet at the Amex on Sunday on matchday 25, with the familiar tension of mid-table. Fabian Hürzeler’s team is in 13th place with 31 points, Oliver Glasner’s Palace is in 15th with 29 points, and both are close enough to Tottenham that the picture could change quickly. The first leg in November ended 0-0 at Selhurst Park, appropriately rough for a derby. The betting market is clearly leaning towards a Brighton win.
- Venue: Amex Stadium, Brighton
- Date and time: February 8, 2026, 3:00 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 25)
From this starting point, Brighton’s argument for a home win is based less on fluidity of play and more on stability, because they consistently find a way to score without falling apart. Meanwhile, Palace are trying to end a winless streak and integrate Strand Larsen, Johnson, and Guessand, all without Mateta. With Welbeck as a reliable fixture up front and Groß shaping games with his crosses and timing, Brighton seem better equipped for the derby details, even if the market is already pricing them at around 2.0.
Brighton form & record check
Brighton’s last league appearance summed up their winter quite well, a 1-1 draw against Everton that should have been three points after Groß’s goal, until the equalizer in stoppage time brought everything crashing down again. Before that, there was a 2-1 defeat at Fulham and another 1-1 draw at home against Bournemouth, results that do not match the expectations of a team that wants to win games through possession and pressure. The ray of hope came in the FA Cup, where they won 2-1 at Manchester United, an indication that Hürzeler’s team can step up when it gets serious. Nevertheless, the pattern is hard to overlook: Brighton has scored in five consecutive games in all competitions, but has also conceded in all five, and so decent performances regularly turn into nervous finishes. The personnel situation is more of a tactical subtlety than an excuse. With March still working on his fitness and Gruda out on loan, the natural width can look thin if Mitoma or Minteh can’t go every minute, then players who don’t really belong there quickly end up on the wings. Webster and Wieffer are still missing at the back, and Ayari is on the list with a shoulder problem, so Konstanz still has a few weak spots.
Brighton are likely to stick with Hürzeler’s familiar 4-3-3, although that’s just a prediction. Verbruggen seems set to start in goal, behind a back four of Kadıoğlu, van Hecke, Dunk, and De Cuyper.
In midfield, Baleba could anchor the team, while Groß sets the pace and O’Riley drifts into the half-spaces. Up front, Minteh and Mitoma are expected to provide width around Welbeck. With Webster and Tzimas still out and Wieffer also likely to miss out, Brighton’s midfield looks pretty well-rehearsed on paper. More exciting is the depth on the wings, as March is not yet fully fit, making the roles of Minteh and Mitoma even more important. If there is rotation, Veltman or Boscagli can help out in defense, while Hinshelwood, Milner, Gómez, or Rutter offer alternatives for midfield and attack.
Crystal Palace Form & Record Check
The 1-1 draw at Nottingham Forest was a small step forward for Palace, mainly because they fought back after an early setback and Sarr stabilized the game with a penalty. At the same time, however, it extended their winless streak, and the overall picture remains rough. This includes the 3-1 home defeat to Chelsea and the 2-1 league defeat at Sunderland, where they were once again chasing the game rather than dictating it. The FA Cup defeat at Macclesfield is exactly the kind of result that immediately puts the microscope on them, and it came at a time when Glasner is feeling the heat over the direction of this season. In terms of personnel, this does not help, with Kamada and Nketiah on the injury list and Mateta now out with a knee problem that may require surgery, leaving the team without a striker and a clear focal point in attack. The investments made in January have expanded the options, but at the same time prolonged the acclimatization period. Strand Larsen, Johnson, and Guessand bring new combinations to the table, but the coordination with the midfield and wingbacks does not yet seem complete, especially when games drag on and spaces open up. Defensively, the absence of Guéhi is noticeable, as opponents are creating chances early on and Palace has too many phases in which the game rolls over them rather than them controlling it.
Glasner is likely to stick with a 3-4-2-1 formation, with Henderson behind Richards, Lacroix, and Riad. Muñoz and Mitchell are expected to spread the field as wingbacks, while Wharton alongside Lerma seems the most likely double six when it comes to clean build-up play and counter-pressing. In this expected variation, Sarr and Johnson will act as the two runners around Strand Larsen, attacking the spaces early on. The big catch is up front, with Mateta likely to be out with knee problems and Nketiah still missing, making Strand Larsen the logical target player. Kamada’s thigh injury also limits the creative options between the lines. Doucouré is further out, which could make Hughes the first substitution option in midfield, while Kporha, Cardines, and Devenny are also unavailable.
Brighton – Crystal Palace Head-to-head & statistics
The last five encounters have ranged from cautious to wild, starting with a 0-0 draw in November 2025. Before that, Palace won 2-1 in April 2025 and took a 3-1 win at the Amex in 2024, so they have mostly had the upper hand in recent years, although that is no guarantee of comfort in a derby that often hinges on small details. It is striking how often both sides have scored. Four of these five games ended with goals at both ends, and in the same series there were three games with more than 2.5 goals, including Brighton’s 4-1 win in 2024. Brighton have also conceded in four consecutive head-to-head matches, as have Palace, which leaves the door open for goals, even if the first half hour looks tense.
