Key Facts
- Cologne go into the game in tenth place, two points behind Union and one ahead of Augsburg; Leipzig are fifth, chasing Stuttgart and only one point ahead of Leverkusen.
- The 1-0 win against Wolfsburg brought control, but goalscorer Maina is missing; Cologne has scored in each of its last five league games, but has mostly conceded early goals.
- Leipzig never quite came back in the 2-1 defeat to Mainz despite the Harder-Nusa combination, but has always scored in its last five league games and often picked up the pace after the break.
- Cologne’s defense is depleted by absences such as Hübers, Heintz, Kilian, Schmied, and Simpson-Pusey; Leipzig are also missing an important defender in Lukeba, which supports “both teams to score.”
- Leipzig’s pattern favors betting on late goals: over 1.5 goals in the second half have occurred in 80% of their recent games, after often quiet first 45 minutes.
With Cologne in tenth place, just two points behind Union Berlin and one point ahead of Augsburg, a home game quickly feels like more than just 90 minutes – especially against a Leipzig side that is fifth, three points behind Stuttgart and only one point ahead of Leverkusen. Lukas Kwasniok and Ole Werner are therefore experiencing very different, but for both of them palpable, tension in the table at the RheinEnergieStadion. The last league duel in September 2025 went 3-1 to Leipzig, and the betting market also sees the visitors as clear favorites.
- Venue: RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne
- Date and time: February 8, 2026, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (matchday 21)
Leipzig’s pattern of quieter first halves and much more determined second halves also points to late goals. And if Werner is even considering starting Gruda for the first time, the offensive power is likely to increase even more as the game opens up.
Cologne form & record check
Cologne comes off a 1-0 win against Wolfsburg, a result that fit the picture in terms of control and discipline, even if it was another game that came down to small details. The catch: goalscorer Maina is now out, and that weighs heavily because Cologne’s recent league form has been less about long periods of pressure and more about danger from the wings and quick runners into the box. Looking at the last five league games, there was a 2-1 win against Mainz and a 2-2 draw in Heidenheim, alongside defeats to Freiburg (2-1) and Bayern (3-1). The one reliable positive is that they continue to score, but at the same time they have mostly conceded goals during this period, often before the game settled down. With several absences in defense, Kwasniok may need more protection from midfield early on to prevent an open exchange of blows.
Cologne are likely to stick with a 4-4-2 under Kwasniok, with the plan to stand in a compact midfield block and then play quickly and directly into the two strikers. Schwäbe looks like the clear candidate to start in goal, with Sebulonsen, van den Berg, Özkacar, and Lund forming the back four in front of him. In midfield, Thielmann and Kaminski are expected to work on the wings, while Martel and Krauß secure the center behind Ache and Bülter. The big catch is the personnel situation at the back. Hübers, Heintz, Kilian, Schmied, and Simpson-Pusey are all listed as unavailable, so the center-back duo in this prediction feels more like a stopgap solution than a dream team. The fact that Maina and Castro-Montes are also missing could make Cologne’s play down the wings a little more laborious, with Kainz or Waldschmidt obvious alternatives if more creativity is needed in the game.
Leipzig form & record check
Leipzig’s 2-1 home defeat to Mainz last weekend was clearly below their capabilities. Not because they didn’t score, but because they never completely took control again after conceding the goal. Harder and Nusa combined for the goal, but the impression remained of a team that can look a bit shaky when the opponent attacks with conviction.
Away from home, this is an issue even against a mid-table opponent. This defeat comes alongside a 1-1 draw at St. Pauli, a 3-0 win in Heidenheim, a 5-1 defeat to Bayern, and a 2-0 win against Freiburg in their last five league games. Leipzig has scored in every game, and the matches often pick up noticeably after the break, which keeps goals in the second half in play. Added to this are distractions: Schlager is expected to leave in the summer, the club is planning well ahead, and the upcoming DFB Cup quarterfinal against Bayern could also influence how the minutes are distributed.
Werner is likely to stick with a 4-4-1-1 formation, and Gulácsi will probably keep his place, although the club is planning to make Vandevoordt the new number one for next season. The back four in this prediction is Baku, Klostermann, Orbán, and Raum, with Lukeba still out with knee problems. If Werner wants more cover on the left, Bitshiabu could be the alternative. Further up front, a lot will depend on how the duo of Schlager and Seiwald control the tempo, while Bakayoko and Nusa bring width and directness down the wings. Gruda is considered a candidate for the role of link-up player behind Harder, a variation that Werner has recently brought into play, which would give Leipzig an additional ball carrier between the lines. Ouédraogo, Gebel, Sani, and Thomas remain unavailable, which limits the rotation in the attacking line.
Cologne – Leipzig Head-to-Head & Statistics
