Important Facts
- Dortmund is second (42 points) and, with Bayern eight points ahead and Hoffenheim only three points behind, can hardly afford to slip up, while Heidenheim, in 18th place (13), is only one point behind St. Pauli in the relegation battle.
- Under Kovac, BVB remains on track in the league (3-0 Union, 3-2 St. Pauli, 3-0 Bremen) and is unbeaten in five games, but the 0-2 defeats against Tottenham and Inter showed a lack of presence in the penalty area.
- Despite competitive phases, Heidenheim is struggling to get results (most recently 0-3 Leipzig, 1-1 Wolfsburg, 1-2 Mainz, 2-2 Cologne, 0-4 Bayern), conceding goals after the break in all five games and failing to win a single second half.
- Dortmund’s central axis is thinly staffed with the absences of Anton, Süle, and Sabitzer, as well as Anselmino’s recall, while Heidenheim loses important defensive and offensive options with Paçarada, Stergiou, Kaufmann, and Zivzivadze.
- The head-to-head record clearly favors BVB: five games without defeat (three wins, two draws) with three wins in a row; Dortmund led four times at halftime, after which the second halves were mostly controlled and low-scoring.
- For betting, Dortmund’s clear favoritism (1.2 in the three-way market) supports markets such as win/combo, both teams to score: no, and over 2.5—Heidenheim has scored only 17 goals this season, and 80% of their last five games have gone over 2.5.
42 points, title pressure and a turbulent European week: Borussia Dortmund goes into this home game against 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 under a lot of pressure. On Sunday, February 1, Niko Kovac’s team welcomes Frank Schmidt’s Heidenheim to Signal Iduna Park in the 20th round of the Bundesliga. Dortmund is in second place in the table with 42 points, eight points behind Bayern, while Heidenheim is 18th with 13 points, just one point behind St. Pauli. In terms of form, BVB is in good spirits in the league, unbeaten in five games (four wins, one draw) – they also won the last direct duel 2-0 away in September. Nevertheless, it has not been a straightforward week, partly due to the 2-0 defeat to Inter in the Champions League and the upcoming playoff clash with Atalanta. Kovac is expecting some players to return, including Süle and Svensson, while Heidenheim has nominated Dinkçi and is relying on Ramaj.
- Venue: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
- Date and time: February 1, 2026, 5:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (matchday 20)
This also speaks in favor of the market “Both teams to score: No,” especially since Süle and Svensson are expected to return to stabilize Schlotterbeck after the action against Bodø/Glimt. Heidenheim concedes goals every week and Dortmund can follow suit – that’s why Over 2.5 is also a good bet.
Dortmund form & record check
In the Bundesliga, Dortmund under Kovac look like a team with clear rhythm: 3-0 at Union Berlin, 3-2 against St. Pauli and 3-0 against Werder Bremen have kept them in 2nd place in the table with 42 points. The problem is more the upper limit than the lower limit, as Bayern are still 8 points ahead and Hoffenheim are only 3 points behind. Overall, they are meeting expectations in the league, but occasionally show signs of losing control. Across all competitions, the Champions League has exposed a well-known Dortmund weakness. The 2-0 defeat at Tottenham and the 2-0 home defeat to Inter looked flat, with too little presence in the penalty area as soon as the game became tighter. Schlotterbeck had already criticized the lack of clinical finishing after the 2-2 draw with Bodø/Glimt, and the subsequent results suggest that the message needs even more bite. The numbers reinforce a pattern: Dortmund start cautiously, with four of their last five first halves remaining under 1.5 goals, but then the games open up after the break, with the second halves often reaching over 1.5. There have been no draws in the league recently; they either get the job done or get punished. The absences of Anton, Süle, and Sabitzer, as well as the recall of Anselmino, have tested the balance, and Adeyemi’s fluctuating league record remains an issue.
Kovac is expected to have Dortmund play in a 3-4-2-1 formation, with Kobel behind a back three of Mane, Can, and Schlotterbeck. Couto and Bensebaini should provide width as wingbacks, while Nmecha and Bellingham dictate the tempo in the center. In the half-spaces, Brandt and Beier look like the creative duo who will feed Guirassy, acting as a target for finishes and to hold up the ball. The biggest problem lies in the central axis: Anton and Süle are out, Sabitzer is also unavailable, so the rotation is thinner than usual, especially as Anselmino has been recalled and is no longer available. Ryerson or Svensson could come in if Dortmund prefers a more cautious wingback, and Özcan or Chukwuemeka are the obvious alternatives in midfield. Adeyemi remains a likely substitute to bring fresh impetus.
Heidenheim Form & Record Check
Heidenheim travels to Signal Iduna Park in 18th place in the table with 13 points, just one point behind St. Pauli, and their recent league record has brought little relief. Their last five games have ended in a 3-0 defeat to Leipzig, a 1-1 draw in Wolfsburg, a 2-1 defeat in Mainz, a 2-2 draw with Cologne, and a 4-0 defeat to Bayern. Competitive phases, poor results. One issue keeps cropping up: Heidenheim don’t hold it together after the break. They have conceded goals in each of their last five Bundesliga games, and in all five, the goals were conceded in the second half, with no second-half wins during that period. Against Leipzig, the score was 0-0 until the 62nd minute, then the structure broke down. Offensively, the effort is there, but the punch is lacking. Frank Schmidt continues to rely on a back three and width via wingbacks, demanding that Mainka and Gimber defend large areas and that Dorsch and Schöppner win second balls. This plan can work for about an hour, but the bench is depleted due to injuries: Paçarada, Stergiou, Kölle, Rothweiler, Kaufmann, Zivzivadze, and Christian Conteh are all missing. The loan of Dinkçi could provide some much-needed impetus up front.
Schmidt is expected to stick with a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Ramaj in goal and a back four of Föhrenbach, Gimber, Mainka, and Traoré. In midfield, Schöppner and Dorsch are likely to form a compact double pivot. In front of them, Honsak and Ibrahimovic can attack the spaces on either side of Beck, with Pieringer planned as the lone striker.
Dortmund – Heidenheim Head-to-head & statistics
Over the last five encounters, Dortmund has three wins and two draws, with no losses, and they have won the last three in a row. In September 2025, they controlled the game away from home, winning 2-0, and in February 2025, they narrowly secured another away win, 2-1. Previous results included a 4-2 home win in 2024 and draws in 2024 and 2023. Goals have been more consistent than explosive. Dortmund has scored in four of the five games, netting 10 goals in total, while Heidenheim has scored 5 and failed to score twice. Four of the five games exceeded 1.5 total goals, and three were over 2.5, mainly thanks to Dortmund’s finishing prowess. The only real stalemate was the 0-0 draw in 2024. Interestingly, the rhythm was often set before the break. Dortmund led at halftime in four of the five games, and Heidenheim conceded goals at the same rate in the first half. After the break, the action then slowed down. The second halves ended evenly in four out of five cases, and none scored more than 2.5 goals in the second half, so game management was important. This pattern could give more weight to the early stages again, especially as Dortmund are struggling with absences such as Anton and Süle, and Sabitzer is also missing in midfield. Heidenheim’s injury list, including Paçarada and Stergiou, could limit their options on the wings and in defense. Nevertheless, the most recent head-to-head comparison suggests that Dortmund tends to create distance and then manage their lead.
