Important Facts
- Bremen is in 15th place with 18 points, level with HSV and only three ahead of Mainz; Hoffenheim is third (36) with no room for error, as Stuttgart lurks behind with the same number of points.
- Werder’s downward trend is evident in eight league games without a win and only one goal in four of their last five games; they also conceded goals before the break in four of those games.
- Hoffenheim are in good form, unbeaten in five league games and winning four times, most recently 3-1 in Frankfurt after falling behind – they are particularly strong after half-time.
- Bremen’s already shaky defense is depleted: Friedl is suspended, Wöber/Stark/Agu are missing or questionable, and Weiser remains out; this supports Hoffenheim’s role as favorites despite their own absences.
- The last five head-to-head matches have resulted in four Hoffenheim wins and no draws; with over 2.5 goals scored and both teams scoring, often early on with at least two goals before the break.
- With odds of around 2.2 for a Hoffenheim win and Bremen having conceded 42 goals as the bottom team in the Bundesliga, “both teams to score” and over 2.5 goals seem obvious choices according to the tips.
When a team that has gone eight league games without a win meets a third-placed team that has just followed up with a 3-1 win in Frankfurt, even an ordinary Bundesliga evening immediately takes on a new intensity. On Tuesday, January 27, 2026, Horst Steffen’s SV Werder Bremen will host Christian Ilzer’s TSG 1899 Hoffenheim at the Weserstadion on the 16th matchday of the regular season. The table also adds extra weight to the duel: Bremen is in 15th place with 18 points, level on points with Hamburger SV above them and only three points ahead of Mainz below them, while Hoffenheim is in third place with 36 points, chasing Dortmund and keeping Stuttgart at bay. Werder’s form in the league has not lived up to expectations, with few goals and a long run without a win, even if the 0-1 defeat in Leverkusen hinted at a viable plan. Steffen’s task is made more difficult by Friedl’s suspension and other defensive absences.
- Venue: Weserstadion, Bremen
- Date and time: January 27, 2026, 8:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (matchday 16)
Bremen’s urgency and Schmid’s creativity could still lead to a goal, but it is also interesting to note that Ilzer’s in-form team, supported by Moerstedt and Kabak, should also score. Accordingly, “Both teams to score: Yes” and “Over 2.5 goals” are likely outcomes in this game.
Werder form & record check
Werder goes into Tuesday’s home game in 15th place in the table with 18 points, level on points with Hamburger SV and only three points ahead of Mainz in 16th place. The last five league games underline the downward trend: 0-1 in Leverkusen, 3-3 against Frankfurt, 0-3 in Dortmund, 0-0 in Augsburg, 0-4 against Stuttgart. There were phases of organization, but too little return and still no win in eight league games. In Leverkusen, Steffen’s plan largely worked, with Bremen having a lot of possession after the break, but their presence in the penalty area never matched their possession. Backhaus thought a point was possible, but in the end the team defended passively at the decisive moment and hardly had any chances apart from one attempt by Schmid. Slow starts are an issue; in four of their last five games, Bremen have conceded a goal in the first half, forcing them to chase the game. The 3-3 draw against Frankfurt also showed the positives, with Njinmah’s equalizer and quick doubles from Stage and Milosevic indicating resilience, but the late equalizer once again punished careless game management. Bremen’s attack has failed to score in four of their last five games, and injuries are taking their toll: Friedl is suspended, Wöber and Stark are doubtful, and Weiser and Boniface are still out. Coulibaly’s performance helps, but the margin for error is narrow.
Tactically, the recent switch to a back three has given Schmid and Mbangula more space between the lines, and Sugawara’s willingness to shoot offers at least one way to cause trouble in tight games. Nevertheless, the squad looks thin, Fritz has downplayed winter activity and does not expect a quick fix from the market. With Hoffenheim coming to the Weserstadion, Bremen needs points more than pretty patterns.
Steffen is expected to stick with his latest system of three center backs, five midfielders, and two strikers, with Backhaus starting behind a back three of Pieper, Malatini, and Coulibaly. A big question mark is the availability of defenders: Wöber, Stark, Agu, and Schmidt are out, Weiser remains sidelined long-term, and Pieper has a problem. If he is unavailable, Schmetgens is the most likely replacement. In this predicted starting lineup, Sugawara and Deman would provide width as full-backs, pushing high up and supplying the midfield trio of Stage, Lynen, and Schmid. Boniface is missing in attack, so Njinmah and Grüll are expected to form a mobile duo, with Milosevic or Topp the most obvious alternatives if Steffen prefers a more solid target man.
Hoffenheim Form & Record Check
Hoffenheim comes to Bremen as one of the strongest teams in the Bundesliga, sitting in third place with 36 points and a goal difference of 16. The situation at the top is clear, with Dortmund six points ahead, but at the same time there is little room for error because Stuttgart is close behind with the same number of points. Ilzer’s team is looking increasingly confident in its game management, especially once it finds its rhythm after the first few minutes. The last five league games underline this stability: a 3-1 win in Frankfurt after falling behind, a narrow 1-0 win against Leverkusen, a convincing 5-1 win against Mönchengladbach, a 0-0 draw in Stuttgart and a 4-1 win against Hamburger SV. The criticism is that the first half is still too reactive, but the reaction has been excellent recently, with smarter control after the break and better choice of chances. A clear pattern is their effectiveness after halftime, with no defeats in these five games and Hoffenheim scoring in most of them. Burger has quietly developed into an important link player, while Moerstedt’s influence and Kabak’s threat from set pieces provide alternative routes to goal. Nevertheless, the absences of Machida, Frees, Campbell, and Hlozek could test the depth of the squad, and Baumann cannot always rely on late surges to save them.
Ilzer is likely to stick with a system of three center backs, four midfielders, two attacking midfielders, and one striker, with Baumann behind a back three of Kabak, Hajdari, and Bernardo. Coufal and Prass appear to be the most likely wingbacks, giving Hoffenheim width and early crosses, while Avdullahu and Burger should stabilize the midfield. This is a predicted starting lineup and not a confirmation. Further forward, Kramaric and Touré are the likely two playmakers behind Asllani, with Kramaric pulling inside to link up play and dictate the tempo. The biggest limitation is the availability in the attacking area: Hlozek is still out, and Campbell is also missing, which narrows the options in width. In defense, Machida and Frees are unavailable, so rotation is limited.
Werder – Hoffenheim Head-to-head & Statistics
Hoffenheim have won four of the last five meetings, with Bremen winning once and no draws. The most recent encounter in February 2025 ended 1-3, confirming how often Hoffenheim have the upper hand in this pairing. Bremen’s only success came in 2024 with a 4-3 away win, a rare afternoon when their finishing strength outweighed their usual defensive weaknesses. Goals have been the constant. All five games have had more than 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored every time, so there have been no clean sheets. Four of the five were decided by one goal, suggesting fluctuations in the course of the game rather than sustained control. The figures also show that in four of the five games, at least two goals were scored in the first half, so this duel often ignites early. One clear series stands out. Hoffenheim recorded three consecutive wins in 2023 and 2024, with scores of 2-1, 3-2, and 2-1, before Bremen finally stopped the streak at the end of 2024. Even this reset was short-lived, as Hoffenheim responded in February 2025 with a 3-1 victory, the biggest margin in these five encounters. Bremen has at least repeatedly shown late striking power, scoring in the second half in four consecutive games, although they conceded goals in each game. This match may be decided more by game management than by a clear tactical advantage, especially once the game opens up after the break. An important note is that Bremen has never led at halftime in this sample of five games.
