Key Facts
- Freiburg (8th/24 points) is only three points behind Frankfurt and level on points with Union, while Cologne (10th/20) has little buffer to Gladbach – every result shifts the table.
- Freiburg comes into the game on the back of a Europa League win (1-0 against Maccabi, Matanovic headed home in the 82nd minute) and often shows patience; all five of their most recent first halves have ended in draws.
- Cologne ended an eight-game winless streak with a 2-1 win over Mainz, with Ache scoring twice as a substitute, but they have conceded goals in each of their last five league games.
- Cologne are severely depleted defensively: Hübers, Heintz, Kilian, Schmied, and Simpson-Pusey are all out, as is Huseinbasic; Freiburg still has to replace Lienhart, but has options in Rosenfelder and Ogbus.
- In a direct comparison, four of the last five matches were level at halftime and always had fewer than 1.5 goals in the first half; overall, four out of five ended with fewer than 2.5 goals, with Cologne’s 4-1 win in August 2025 remaining the outlier.
- The market sees Freiburg ahead (odds of 1.9) and points to strong second halves; Freiburg scored and conceded after the break in 80% of their last five games, which is why ‘Both teams to score: Yes’ is also being discussed.
The 4-1 result from August is still fresh in everyone’s minds when Julian Schuster’s SC Freiburg welcomes Lukas Kwasniok’s 1. FC Köln to the Europa-Park Stadium. Freiburg is in 8th place in the table with 24 points, three behind Eintracht Frankfurt and level on points with Union Berlin – so the chase for Europe is really within reach. Cologne is tenth with 20 points, needing to catch up with Union and with only a small buffer over Borussia Mönchengladbach. Freiburg’s league results are largely consistent with a team in the upper half of the table, and they bring momentum from their patient 1-0 Europa League win over Maccabi Tel Aviv, decided by Matanovic late in the game. Cologne has not always converted its energy into points, but last weekend’s 2-1 win over Mainz finally ended an eight-game winless streak in the league – with Ache proving decisive as a substitute. And then there is this recent history: Cologne won the return fixture in August 4-1, a rare clear-cut victory in a duel that often starts tightly and opens up later.
- Venue: Europa-Park Stadium, Freiburg
- Date and time: January 25, 2026, 5:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (matchday 19)
The market makes Freiburg the clear favorite, with “Freiburg wins” quoted at 1.9. This is in line with their unbeaten Europa League run and Matanovic’s late winning goal – even though Lienhart is out injured and Ogbus is standing by as a replacement. Cologne are traveling without Hübers and Kilian, but continue to concede goals regularly. It is also striking that Freiburg’s patience often pays off after the break, which is why “Freiburg to win – 2nd half” is receiving additional attention. Ache’s brace against Mainz also pushes the idea of “Both teams to score: Yes” forward.
Freiburg form & record check
Freiburg goes into the game against Cologne with momentum, fresh from a 1-0 win over Maccabi Tel Aviv in the Europa League. It wasn’t pretty to watch for an hour, but the pace after the break, Atubolu’s important save, and Günter’s cross for Matanovic’s header in the 82nd minute showed a team that remains patient and finishes strong. Seven league games without defeat this season have already made a clear statement. In the Bundesliga, the last four games brought a 2-2 draw in Augsburg after trailing 0-2, a 0-2 defeat in Leipzig, and victories against Hamburger SV (2-1) and Wolfsburg (4-3). The offensive performance was there, but the defeat in Leipzig made it clear how vulnerable Freiburg can look when the pressing is bypassed. The deficit in Augsburg was made up for more by character than by control. Schuster’s team is in 8th place in the table with 24 points, three points behind Frankfurt and level with Union Berlin, so every little fluctuation counts.
A noticeable pattern is slow starts, with all five first halves ending in draws and 80% remaining under 1.5 goals. The games then open up, with Freiburg scoring and conceding after the break in 80% of those matches. Lienhart remains sidelined, Kyereh is not yet fully fit, and Ogbus has deputized well.
Schuster is expected to stick with Freiburg’s familiar 4-2-3-1, with Atubolu behind a back four of Treu, Ginter, Rosenfelder, and Günter. Lienhart remains sidelined with an abdominal muscle injury, so Rosenfelder is once again expected to partner Ginter, with Ogbus a plausible alternative if Schuster wants more physicality. In midfield, Eggestein and Osterhage look likely to form the double six in this predicted starting XI, giving Grifo and Beste the space to play high up the pitch and Suzuki to play between the lines. Up front, Matanovic is expected to start after his recent appearance in the Europa League, while Adamu and Höler are considered options off the bench if Freiburg needs more running power or another passing option.
Cologne Form & Record Check
Cologne’s league form has been inconsistent, although the recent 2-1 win against Mainz has calmed the mood. That was preceded by a 3-1 defeat to Bayern, a 2-2 draw in Heidenheim, and then defeats of 1-0 to Union and 2-0 at Leverkusen. Their performances often looked competitive at times, but too many periods of the game are out of control, especially when the tide turns against them. A clear pattern is that Cologne have conceded at least one goal in each of their last five league games, and in four of those five games, more than 1.5 goals were scored in total. They also don’t start quickly, with no first-half wins in this run, suggesting cautious starts and a reliance on second-half solutions. That worked against Mainz, with Ache proving decisive and Castro-Montes providing the assist. Cologne are 10th in the table with 20 points, four points behind Union above them and level on points with Mönchengladbach below them, so a few results could quickly reshuffle the season. The personnel situation is a cause for concern, with Hübers, Heintz, Kilian, Schmied, and Simpson-Pusey all out, and Huseinbasic also missing. That leaves little room for defensive errors, especially away in Freiburg.
Kwasniok is expected to stick with a 3-4-2-1 formation, with Schwäbe behind a likely back three of Sebulonsen, van den Berg, and Özkacar. With Hübers, Heintz, Kilian, Schmied, and Simpson-Pusey all out, this formation is almost a given. Castro-Montes and Lund should provide width as wingbacks and push up high to tie up the opposition. Martel and Jóhannesson look like the most likely central duo, with Huseinbasic out sick. In front of them, Maina and Waldschmidt are expected to move inside to orient themselves around Ache, giving Cologne runners close to the striker rather than classic wingers. Said El Mala is also ill and Malek El Mala has a torn muscle, so Kainz, Thielmann or Bülter could be the first offensive substitutes.
Freiburg – Cologne Head-to-head & statistics
Over the last five meetings, Freiburg has had the better results, with three wins to Cologne’s one, plus a draw, with a goal difference of 6:4. The big turnaround came in August 2025, when Cologne won 4-1 at home. Before that, Freiburg had mostly been in control, including a 0-0 draw in 2024 and three Freiburg wins spread across 2023 and 2022. Freiburg’s best run in this period was a sequence of three wins in regular time, starting in 2022 and continuing through both encounters in 2023, all without conceding a goal. They were also unbeaten in four consecutive games until Cologne’s victory in August 2025, which ended a long period in which Cologne rarely found a way through. The hesitant starts are striking: all five games had fewer than 1.5 goals in the first half, and four of the five were tied at halftime. Freiburg in particular did not score in the first half in this sample, so the advantage usually came later, with goals and control of the game more common after the break. Overall, the results were mostly close, with four of the five ending with fewer than 2.5 goals and four of the five with fewer than 3.5. August 2025 is the clear outlier, both in terms of quantity and Cologne’s offensive efficiency. If this duel starts slowly again, history suggests that it will depend more on a moment in the second half than on an early rush.
