Key Facts
- Mainz is in 17th place with 12 points, just one point behind Heidenheim and level on points with St. Pauli; Wolfsburg (12th/19) can climb up the tight mid-table with a win.
- Under Urs Fischer, Mainz has already earned half of its season points in five games, conceding no goals in the last five games before the break, but collapsed in Cologne after taking the lead.
- Mainz has to do without Zentner, Caci, and Hanche Olsen in defense and, according to tips, has even lost six defenders; Loanee Posch is expected to stabilize the back three immediately.
- Wolfsburg has scored in each of its last five league games, but has also conceded goals in each of them – all before the break; with Wind out, Amoura, Wimmer, and new signing Shiogai are expected to carry the load.
- The bookmakers favor Mainz (2.3), but a Wolfsburg win (3.0) looks valuable according to the analysis; with five H2H games in a row ‘Both teams to score’ and 80% of Wolfsburg games over 2.5, BTTS/Over is a good bet.
Mainz are deep in the relegation battle under Urs Fischer, sitting 17th with 12 points, and it is in this situation that VfL Wolfsburg come to the Mewa Arena on Saturday. On the 19th matchday of the Bundesliga, the Rheinhessen are just one point behind Heidenheim and level on points with St. Pauli, while Wolfsburg, under Daniel Bauer, are in 12th place with 19 points, one point ahead of or behind Mönchengladbach and Bremen. Although three of the last five matches ended in draws, Mainz has been collecting points more regularly lately: Three of the last five league games ended in draws, but last week’s 1-2 defeat in Cologne showed how close it often is. The Posch loan could have an immediate impact in Fischer’s back three, especially with Zentner, Caci, and Hanche Olsen all missing. Wolfsburg travel on the back of a 1-1 draw with Heidenheim, buoyed by striker Shiogai, while Wind remains sidelined. Both teams scored in the 1-1 draw in August.
- Venue: Mewa Arena, Mainz
- Date and time: January 24, 2026, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (matchday 19)
The market is leaning towards “Mainz to win” (at 2.3), but “Wolfsburg to win” at 3.0 looks like better value because Wolfsburg’s attack continues to deliver reliably, while Mainz’s patched-up defense is still waiting for Posch to arrive and also has to do without Zentner and Caci. This imbalance also fits with “Both teams to score: Yes” and “Over 2.5,” with Amoura, Majer, and new signing Shiogai as the touchstones for a team that continues to create chances through Amiri and Lee.
Mainz Form & Record Check
1. FSV Mainz 05 goes into matchday 19 in 17th place in the table, with 12 points and a goal difference of minus 13, but the gaps are minimal. They are one point behind Heidenheim and level on points with St. Pauli behind them, so every decent spell counts immediately. Urs Fischer has brought some momentum to the team, already securing half of their points tally so far in five games, and the atmosphere at the Mewa Arena seems cautiously but noticeably better.
In the league, it has been quite a rollercoaster ride recently. The 2-1 defeat in Cologne showed how quickly Mainz can lose control after the break, even though Bell had given them the lead and Potulski had already hit the post. The 2-1 win against Heidenheim and the 2-2 draw at Union underlined their resilience, while the goalless draw against St. Pauli lacked bite. In Europe, the 2-0 win against Samsunspor was a fairly straightforward task.
The numbers point to a clear pattern. In their last five games, Mainz have never conceded a goal in the first half, and every first half has remained under 1.5 goals. They even won the first half in four of those games, which is not what you would expect from a team in 17th place. The problem is maintaining that control once the game opens up after the break.
The personnel could determine what the next step will be. Zentner is still out, and the injury list in defense is persistent, so Fischer is relying on experience and has brought in Posch on loan.
It’s quite possible that he will start immediately in the back three. Up front, Silas and Tietz bring more power, but the creative burden continues to fall on Amiri and Lee, while Nebel is stuck on one league goal and no assists.
Urs Fischer is likely to stick with his preferred 3-1-4-2 formation, with Batz continuing in goal in view of Zentner’s adductor injury. A back three of Kohr, Bell, and new signing Posch makes sense on paper, especially with Hanche Olsen and Dal missing. In front of them, Sano will be tasked with securing the build-up play and protecting the central areas.
With Mwene, Caci, and Veratschnig all missing, the wingback positions are likely to go to da Costa and Widmer, with the task of providing width early on and quickly dropping back into a back five. Amiri and Lee would shoulder much of the creative work between the lines, while Silas and Tietz are expected to be the front duo, with direct depth and a physically present target player as a reference point.
Wolfsburg Form & Record Check
Wolfsburg’s league record has been shaky lately, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five games. The recent 1-1 draw against Heidenheim felt like a missed opportunity, with plenty of possession but too little penetration, until Jenz saved the day after a corner. Before that, there was the important 2-1 win against St. Pauli, then the 8-1 debacle at Bayern and a wild 4-3 defeat in Freiburg, despite scoring plenty of goals themselves.
Interestingly, the constants are at both ends of the field. Wolfsburg has scored in each of these five games, but has also conceded a goal every time, always before the break. This points to concentration problems and a shaky defense once the pressing is overcome. Every game has seen more than 1.5 goals, most of them even more than 2.5. So the bigger question remains control rather than creating chances.
Bauer’s options are improving, but the margins are still tight. Wolfsburg are 12th in the table with 19 points, one behind Mönchengladbach and one ahead of Bremen, so a good run could quickly turn things around. Wind is still out, Maehle, Rogério and Dárdai are missing, and Skov Olsen has moved to Rangers on loan. Eriksen and new signing Shiogai are expected to provide more bite around Amoura and Wimmer.
Wolfsburg are likely to stick with their familiar 4-2-3-1 formation, with Grabara in goal and a back four of Fischer, Jenz, Koulierakis and Zehnter. With Maehle and Rogério out and Seelt also unavailable, Zehnter looks like the obvious solution at left-back. Interestingly, Jenz could become important again with his threat from set pieces, especially after his recent equalizer.
In midfield, Souza and Arnold would probably provide cover as a double six, allowing Eriksen to pull the strings between the lines. In this prediction, Wimmer and Majer support Amoura up front, Wind is still missing, and Dárdai is also out. If Pejcinovic is not fully fit, new signing Shiogai could come off the bench as an option.
Mainz – Wolfsburg Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The last five encounters have been fairly even, with one win each and three draws. The most recent match in August 2025 ended in a 1-1 draw, following another draw in April 2025, which ended 2-2. The home and away matches took place in 2024, with Wolfsburg narrowly winning 4-3, then Mainz responding with a 3-1 victory.
Goals were almost a given. Both teams scored in each of these five games, and every game had more than 1.5 goals. That’s a series of five games with goals for Mainz and Wolfsburg, but also a series of five games in which both teams conceded goals. Interestingly, Wolfsburg scored before the break in all five games, so Mainz had to make up for something early on several times.
The many draws do not automatically mean cautious football; often it was rather wild, especially in the 4-3 in 2024. The pattern suggests another game in which the momentum shifts, with Mainz often reacting after halftime. In terms of personnel, this could tip the balance somewhat, with Mainz missing Zentner, Mwene, and Caci, while Wolfsburg could be without Wind, Maehle, and Rogério.
