Important Facts
- Atlético is fourth (38 points), just three points behind Villarreal; Alaves is 16th (19) level on points with Osasuna and just one point ahead of Mallorca.
- The odds reflect clear favorites: Atlético 1.4 against a draw 5.0 and Alaves 9.0; the question is more “how,” such as a win without conceding or over 2.5 goals.
- Griezmann has been instrumental in Atlético’s run of form with five goals in six games and the latest cup free kick goal; in addition, the team has scored in each of its last five games and remains unbeaten in the second halves.
- Alaves is drawing confidence from the cup after its 2-0 win over Rayo, but things are looking shaky in La Liga; all of their last five first halves have ended 0-0, with no goals scored before the break.
- Personnel issues are weighing on the team: Alaves will be without center back Garcés, who is suspended until 09/26/2026, while Atlético continues to plan without Lenglet and Nico González; Gallagher’s departure could open up more minutes for Cardoso.
You can immediately sense how much is at stake when Atlético Madrid welcomes Alaves to the Metropolitano Deportivo, as the table leaves little room for either side. Going into round 20, Diego Simeone’s team is fourth with 38 points, three points behind Villarreal and four ahead of Espanyol; Alaves travel in 16th place with 19 points, level on points with Osasuna and just one point ahead of Mallorca. Recently, this fixture has often been a tough battle – on August 30, it ended 1-1, and it is rarely an open game between these two. Atlético comes off a Copa del Rey win at Deportivo La Coruna, decided by Griezmann after a minor setback, and Gallagher’s departure could free up minutes for Cardoso. Alaves is also still in the cup, with Vicente and Toni Martínez scoring in a 2-0 win, but their form in the league is lagging behind – accordingly, the bookmakers clearly see Atlético as the favorites.
- Venue: Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid
- Date and time: January 18, 2026, 4:15 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (matchday 20)
The market is clearly backing Atlético, with odds of 1.4, a draw at 5.0 and Alaves at 9.0. The exciting question is not so much whether, but rather how, as Simeone’s team can control the game, keep a clean sheet and even score more than 2.5 goals in a 3-0 scenario. Griezmann’s Copa del Rey winner, Cardoso’s potential increased playing time following Gallagher’s departure and Garcés’ suspension carry more weight in the overall assessment than Vicente’s occasional threat from distance.
Atletico Form & Record Check
Atlético goes into matchday 20 in fourth place with 38 points, three behind Villarreal and four ahead of Espanyol, so there is not much room for error. Across all competitions, their recent record looks decent, but it hasn’t always been a comfortable ride. They score in every game and are often a tad better than their opponents in the final third, but their attacking output still relies heavily on individual moments rather than sustained pressure. The 1-0 win at Deportivo La Coruna in the Copa del Rey took them into the quarterfinals and was another indication of Simeone’s pragmatism. Griezmann’s free kick in the 61st minute decided the game, after which Atlético played out the final stages cleanly, with Oblak rarely having any real work to do. Nevertheless, the chances created were more steady than really incisive, and with only a one-goal lead, there was minimal room for carelessness. This balancing act reappeared in the 1-1 draw in La Liga at Real Sociedad, with control coming and going, and Atlético looking more convincing as soon as the game opened up. This was followed by a 2-1 defeat in the Super Cup semi-final against Real Madrid, a result that hurt because the defensive structure was not consistently secure when switching play. And when games demand ruthless efficiency, Alvarez’s alleged goal-scoring drought certainly doesn’t help. The 3-0 league defeat at Girona and the 3-2 victory in the Copa del Rey at Atlético Baleares underline a pattern in this phase.
Atlético often score after the break, having scored in the second half in each of their last five games and not losing a second half during that period. Lenglet and Nico González remain sidelined, while the switch to Gallagher and Raspadori in midfield could open up minutes for Cardoso.
Simeone is likely to stick with his usual 4-4-2, with Oblak behind a back four of Molina, Giménez, Le Normand, and Ruggeri. In midfield, Giuliano Simeone and Baena are the most likely options on the flanks, while Llorente and Koke will share the central roles. Up front, the prediction points to Griezmann alongside Alvarez, with Griezmann dropping between the lines to link up play. Lenglet is still out with a medial ligament injury, so Giménez and Le Normand are expected to take over the center of defense, with Hancko the obvious backup. Nico González is also unavailable, which should keep Baena focused on the left or, if in doubt, open up minutes for Almada if Simeone wants more creativity. Cardoso and Barrios are alternatives if Atletico needs a more compact midfield bulwark.
Alaves Form & Record Check
Alaves comes with a clear dividing line in its luggage: confidence in the cup, but rather stomach pains in the league. In the Copa del Rey, they just beat Rayo Vallecano 2-0, which went well with December’s 1-0 win over Sevilla, and the clean sheets should please Coudet. Martínez scored shortly after the break, and Vicente’s long-range finish, aided by a goalkeeping error, showed that they can punish their opponents’ mistakes. This sharpness came at the right time. In La Liga, the picture is much shakier. The 3-1 win at Villarreal was one of those games in which Alaves stayed in it for a long time and then fell apart after halftime, even though Martínez did score a late consolation goal. Before that, there was a tired 1-1 draw at home against Oviedo and a worrying 3-0 defeat at Osasuna, which revealed how quickly they lose their composure when they are chasing a deficit. The numbers show how close it all is: 16th in the table with 19 points, level on points with Osasuna and only one ahead of Mallorca. One poor afternoon and the table looks very different. Interestingly, all of their last five first halves have ended even and goalless, which suggests control but also a lack of pressure in the early stages. With Garcés suspended for the long term, Blanco and Guevara will need to show even more discipline to protect the defense.
Coudet is likely to stick with a familiar 4-4-2, although this is only a prediction. Fernández is the likely man in goal, with Tenaglia, Pacheco, Diarra, and Enríquez forming the back four. In midfield, Vicente and Rebbach will provide width on the flanks, while Guevara and Blanco are likely to be deployed as a double six to keep the team compact and aggressive on second balls. The big sticking point in the selection is at center back, as Garcés is suspended until September 26, 2026, following a ruling by the sports court, a cross-competition absence that significantly limits the options. This suggests that Pacheco and Diarra will continue to play together, with Maras the most obvious backup. Up front, Boyé and Martínez are expected to form a duo, with one dropping back to link up play and the other consistently pushing into the box.
Atletico – Alaves Head-to-head & Statistics
In the last five encounters, Atlético Madrid has had the edge, with 2 wins to Alaves’ 1, plus 2 draws, and the goal tally is exactly 5:5. The two most recent matches in August 2025 and May 2025 ended 1-1 and 0-0, indicating that this rivalry has narrowed significantly recently, following Atlético’s 2-1 home wins in La Liga in 2024 and 2023. There is a clear goal limit, with all five games remaining below 3.5 total goals, a streak of five games that is hard to ignore. Four of the five went over 1.5 goals, but none turned into an open slugfest. There was a lot of control, especially after the break, with four of the five games going under 1.5 goals in the second half, making long periods of caution seem almost inevitable. Interestingly, Alaves scored in three consecutive head-to-head matches in 2023 and 2024, and Atlético conceded a goal in each of those games. Nevertheless, the margins are usually close, with three of the five ending in a draw or being decided by just one goal. The outlier was Alaves’ 2-0 win in 2024, the only game here that was decided by two goals, indicating a rare display of dominance.
