Important Facts
- Chelsea (8th/31) and Brentford (5th/33) are separated by just two points; a win could bring Chelsea closer to the Europa League and increase Brentford’s pressure on Liverpool.
- Chelsea have been waiting for a league win since December 13, but have scored in five consecutive games and conceded in just as many – a pattern of costly slip-ups.
- Brentford travels with six unbeaten league games and 14 points since December 14; Thiago’s 16 league goals and strong set pieces are driving the run.
- At Chelsea, Palmer is being monitored for a slight thigh strain, but Caicedo returns; while Colwill is out long term, Mudryk is suspended and Disasi is ineligible.
- In five head-to-head matches, there have been three draws and first halves with under 1.5 goals; at 1.7 on Chelsea, Chelsea’s “always scored and conceded” streak supports the BTTS idea.
A West London derby that is more than just neighborhood folklore for both sides: Liam Rosenior’s Chelsea are looking to finally get their Premier League season back on track, while Keith Andrews’ Brentford are looking to further secure their strong position. Chelsea go into round 22 in eighth place with 31 points, one point behind Manchester United and level on points with Fulham; Brentford is fifth with 33 points, two behind Liverpool and one point ahead of Newcastle. A West London derby that is more than just neighborhood folklore for both sides: Liam Rosenior’s Chelsea is looking to finally get its Premier League season back on track, while Keith Andrews’ Brentford wants to further secure its strong position. Chelsea are eighth with 31 points in round 22, one point behind Manchester United and level on points with Fulham; Brentford are fifth with 33 points, two behind Liverpool and one point ahead of Newcastle.
- Venue: Stamford Bridge, London
- Date and time: January 17, 2026, 4:00 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 22)
With Chelsea at 1.7, it’s tempting to bet on Chelsea to win, even if the more exciting part lies in how the game might unfold. Rosenior needs his first league win at Stamford Bridge, Caicedo is back, and even if Palmer is used sparingly, Chelsea still look like a team that can score goals. Brentford’s away confidence and Thiago’s 16 goals argue for Both Teams to Score: Yes, while Chelsea’s expected early pressure at least supports the idea that they will set the tone before the break.
Chelsea form & record check
Chelsea are in eighth place with 31 points, and the gaps are tight, so a single good weekend can quickly turn the table upside down. The problem remains momentum in the league, with their last Premier League win dating back to December 13, and recently it has too often seemed like a decent run followed by a costly slip-up. The 2-2 draw with Bournemouth and the 1-1 draw at Manchester City showed attacking intent and resilience, but also a habit of letting opponents back into the game. The 2-1 defeat at Fulham was the most disappointing result, a game in which control was fragmented and the defensive transitions looked vulnerable as soon as the tempo picked up, which is a familiar problem for a team chasing European qualification. At first glance, things went better in the cup, with a merciless 5-1 win at Charlton, albeit against a lower-league opponent, followed by a 3-2 defeat to Arsenal in the League Cup semi-final, which perfectly illustrated these fluctuations. Sánchez’s mistakes were decisive, but Garnacho’s two goals, with Neto involved, kept the belief alive for the second leg. Across all competitions, the patterns are hard to miss: Chelsea have scored in each of their last five games, but have also conceded in all five, and after the break, the games regularly become more open. Interestingly, the first halves have often been quiet, then the tempo picks up late, Rosenior gets his ideas across, and Palmer’s slight thigh strain adds to the uncertainty of how high the creative ceiling really is.
Rosenior is likely to stick with a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Sánchez expected to play behind a back four of James, Chalobah, Fofana, and Cucurella. The double six of Caicedo and Fernández seems like the best way to stabilize Chelsea’s defense after losing possession and keep the first pass clean, especially since James is supposed to move into midfield at times when in possession. In front of them, the predicted attacking line-up is Neto, João Pedro, Garnacho, and Delap, with João Pedro slotting in as the link between midfield and attack. The big question mark is Palmer, who has a slight thigh strain and is being monitored, so this starting lineup prediction could still change at short notice. Colwill remains out long term, Mudryk is suspended and Disasi is ineligible to play.
Brentford Form & Record Check
Brentford come to Stamford Bridge in fifth place in the league with 33 points, just two behind Liverpool and only one ahead of Newcastle. For a team that let Mbeumo leave, this position seems almost ahead of schedule. They are unbeaten in six Premier League games and have picked up 14 points since December 14, more than any other team. Their confidence away from home is also underpinned by just one defeat in eight West London away games. The last month has been a mixture of control and punch, with the 4-1 win over Bournemouth setting the tone with aggressive play down the wings and sharp set pieces. A 0-0 draw with Tottenham felt like a missed opportunity, with Thiago later claiming he was stopped by a foul that deserved a red card. Brentford then beat Everton 4-2, strong on the counter but too open in their own box, before calmly brushing aside Sunderland 3-0. The FA Cup trip to Sheffield Wednesday ended 2-0 and, to be honest, looked even more commanding than the score suggests. Jensen controlled the game, set up the opening goal for Lewis-Potter and then sealed it from the spot, while Nelson and Hickey both came close as Brentford continued to pile on the pressure. The one concern was Henderson, who had to come off at half-time after a collision, a reminder that even this squad is not immune to wear and tear. Across all competitions, the pattern is clear: quick starts, no goals conceded before half-time in the last five games, and four wins out of five overall. Andrews relies on set-piece advantage, Brentford leads the league in long throw-ins and has also been involved in debates about time-wasting. Thiago’s 16 league goals give them a reliable target, but injuries to Dasilva, Milambo, and Carvalho, plus interest in Onyeka in January, could test their depth.
Brentford are likely to stick with their usual 4-2-3-1 under Andrews, with Valdimarsson in goal. Hickey and Henry should provide width via the full-backs, while Collins and van den Berg clear the air. Henderson and Jensen seem the most likely pairing, allowing Damsgaard more freedom between the lines, Nelson and Lewis-Potter to attack the half-spaces, and Thiago to tie up the center-backs. The big catch is the squad depth in midfield. Dasilva is still out after knee surgery, Milambo and Carvalho are out long-term with cruciate ligament tears, so the creative responsibility clearly lies with Jensen and Damsgaard. Henderson had to come off at half-time in the FA Cup win at Sheffield Wednesday, and if he is not fit in time, Janelt or Onyeka could take over in the double six. Kayode is also a candidate at right-back.
Chelsea – Brentford Head-to-head & statistics
Over the last five encounters, the record is almost mirror-image, with Chelsea winning once, Brentford winning once, and three draws. Brentford has a slight edge in goals, 7-6, which fits with the impression of this rivalry, as neither side really takes control for long periods of time. Four of the five games had over 1.5 total goals, even though the results were rarely decisive. Last year, there were two draws, 2-2 in September 2025 and 0-0 in April 2025, so the recent picture suggests that Chelsea is struggling to pull away. In September, that familiar late momentum shift came again, while April was the opposite, a stalemate in which chances were not converted into goals. In three of the five matches, both teams scored, but not reliably enough to label it a sure thing. In 2024, Chelsea won 2-1, but earlier in the year they also drew 2-2, and Brentford’s one win in this series was a 2-0 victory in 2023. Clean sheets were rare for Chelsea during this period, with just one in five games, while Brentford managed two. Interestingly, the first halves in all five games remained below 1.5 goals, a pattern across five games with cautious starts. This trend of slow starts suggests that the game often only opens up after the break, when the score and substitutions make the difference, rather than early chaos. Chelsea’s best moment in these head-to-head matches remains their narrow victory in 2024, but overall it is a series with a clear tendency toward draws, in which Brentford usually finds a way onto the scoreboard, and when one side dominates, it is more in phases than over 90 minutes.
