Important Facts
- Pisa goes into the game in 20th place with 13 points, level on points with Verona; Atalanta is seventh with 31 points, with Europe still within reach.
- Pisa has been waiting for a win for five league games and has conceded at least one goal in all of them; Tramoni and Meister held their own in the 2-2 draw in Udine.
- Atalanta has won four of its last five league games without a draw and has played in a controlled manner; all five games had fewer than 2.5 goals, and Carnesecchi was rarely called into action.
- Pisa must replace the suspended Caracciolo and has further defensive absences with Albiol, Lusuardi, and Denoon; Bonfanti is likely to play a key role in the build-up as a result.
- Atalanta are traveling without Lookman and defenders Kolasinac, Djimsiti, and Bakker; this could cost them balance and experience, even though Ahanor has recently brought stability.
- The only direct matchup in August 2025 ended 1-1; Pisa led at halftime, Atalanta dominated the second half, both teams scored, and the total remained under 2.5 goals.
With every point counting in Pisa’s relegation battle and Atalanta remaining within striking distance of the European places, even a Friday night at the Arena Garibaldi (Stadio Romeo Anconetani) immediately takes on a special intensity. Alberto Gilardino’s Pisa goes into this game in 20th place in Serie A with 13 points, level on points with Verona directly above them, while Raffaele Palladino’s Atalanta is in seventh place with 31 points, three points behind Como and three ahead of Lazio – Europe is clearly within reach. The mood hardly matches the situation. Pisa has recently collected too many draws and gained too little from them – even in the spirited 2-2 draw in Udine, where Tramoni and Meister scored – while Caracciolo is now suspended, which will likely clear the way for Bonfanti to start. Atalanta travel to Pisa on the back of a controlled 2-0 win over Torino, with De Ketelaere opening the scoring and Pašalić sealing the victory, even though Lookman is away on international duty and the absences in defense are hurting. The last meeting, a 1-1 draw in Bergamo in August, was close enough to remind us why the betting market continues to rate the visitors highly.
- Venue: Arena Garibaldi – Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa
- Date and time: January 16, 2026, 8:45 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 21)
The bookmakers make Atalanta the clear away favorites, with odds of 1.6. The difference in form and Pisa’s winless streak support an away win, especially since Caracciolo is suspended and Bonfanti is likely to step in, while Atalanta has its sights set on the Coppa Italia quarterfinals. Nevertheless, there is value in betting against a game without a goal, because Tramoni and Meister Pisa continue to contribute goals, while Atalanta are traveling without Lookman, Kolasinac, and Djimsiti – which points more towards both teams scoring: Yes and over 2.5 goals.
Pisa form & record check
Pisa goes into matchday 21 still stuck in 20th place in the table with 13 points. Verona is just above them with the same number of points, so the field is not completely broken up. The problem is their form in the league: five games in a row without a win, and too many leads or good phases have not been consistently converted into points. Gilardino’s team looks competitive for long stretches, but repeatedly pays for brief lapses. The 2-2 draw at Udinese summed this up quite aptly. Tramoni scored early, then the game was turned on its head by a clumsily conceded penalty, and Pisa had to chase the game. The reaction was decent, Meister poked in the equalizer and Pisa pushed for the winning goal, but the game remained open. Before that, there was the worrying 3-0 home defeat to Como, plus a 1-1 draw in Genoa, a 2-0 defeat to Juventus, and a 2-2 draw in Cagliari. The pattern is clear: Pisa has conceded at least one goal in each of its last five league games, and all of them have gone over 1.5 goals, with control over 90 minutes rarely possible. Caracciolo is suspended, Bonfanti is likely to start, and the absences of Albiol, Lusuardi, and Denoon leave little room for maneuver at the back.
Akinsanmiro is missing, Cuadrado and Stengs remain out, and Bozhinov is expected to join the team. Tramoni brings ideas to the front.
Gilardino is likely to stick to Pisa’s usual 3-4-1-2 formation, with Scuffet probably slightly ahead in goal. In this prediction, the back three consists of Calabresi, Bonfanti, and Canestrelli, supported by Marin and Aebischer. Touré and Angori are expected to provide width, with Tramoni the obvious link-up player behind the strike duo of Moreo and Meister. The selection seems to be influenced more by absences than pure preference. Caracciolo is suspended, and with Albiol, Lusuardi, and Denoon also missing, Bonfanti could play a key role in building up play early on. Further forward, Akinsanmiro is away with the national team, and the injuries to Cuadrado and Stengs are likely to shift the focus to Tramoni’s set pieces and combination play.
Atalanta Form & Record Check
Atalanta comes to Pisa in seventh place with 31 points, and the table is slowly tightening up. They are three points behind Como, with Lazio three points behind them, which is exactly the phase in which a good week can quickly turn into a run. Palladino’s team has looked calmer and more pragmatic lately, winning four of their last five league games without a draw. Their recent run reads as follows: 2-0 against Torino, 2-0 in Bologna, 1-0 against Roma, then their only slip-up, 0-1 against Inter, and 1-0 in Genoa. The victories weren’t always spectacular, but they were controlled, with Carnesecchi rarely having to step in as a firefighter. Against Inter, the gap was small, and Atalanta lacked the final sharpness to convert pressure into a clear equalizer. De Ketelaere and Pašalić provided the right timing in the finish. The pattern is clear: close games, no goals conceded, and almost no fireworks. All five of these league games remained under 2.5 goals, and both halves were often rather quiet. This could be a sign of maturity, or it could indicate a lack of ideas up front, especially with Lookman away on international duty and Kolasinac, Djimsiti, and Bakker out injured. Ahanor’s breakthrough has helped keep the defense stable.
Palladino is likely to stick with his familiar 3-4-2-1 formation, with Carnesecchi behind a back three that could feature Scalvini, Hien, and Ahanor. The system is likely to thrive on the aggressive play of wingers Zappacosta and Bellanova, while De Roon and Éderson set the pace in the center. Between the lines, De Ketelaere and Zalewski are likely to be the driving forces behind Krstović. The decisive factor in this predicted lineup is the absences: Lookman is away with the national team, Kolasinac and Djimsiti are missing in defense, and Bakker remains sidelined for the long term. That could cost Atalanta some balance and experience on the left, even though Ahanor has already shown that he can fill the role. Kossounou or Godfrey would be options off the bench if the defense needs additional protection.
Pisa – Atalanta Head-to-Head & Statistics
The most recent head-to-head match, in August 2025, ended 1-1. With only one game as a usable sample, the overall picture is quickly told: no wins for either side and one draw. On paper, this seems balanced, but it also masks a clear shift in momentum between the halves. This game in August 2025 could be neatly divided into two stories. Pisa was ahead at halftime, then Atalanta took control after the break and won the second half, even though the final score remained even.
One might think that this indicates that Atalanta finds solutions during the course of the game, while Pisa was unable to capitalize on its advantage. In pure numbers, it was a low-scoring game: under 1.5 goals in each half and under 2.5 goals over the full game, with both teams scoring. Nevertheless, with only a single point of reference, any trend is shaky. For this return leg, absences such as Cuadrado and Albiol for Pisa and Lookman, Kolasinac, Djimsiti, and Bakker for Atalanta could shift the balance more than history.
