An unbeaten home team, a Champions League contender, and a derby that could shake up the top half of the table meet at the Martínez Valero on Saturday. Elche, back in the Primera and in ninth place with 22 points, go into this game with record season ticket sales, while Villarreal, fourth in the table, defend their Champions League position at the start of a packed January. The visitors will be accompanied by a sizeable away contingent after the club and fan groups organized the trip. Éder Sarabia’s side have been one of the surprises of the season, are unbeaten at home and come into the game on the back of a 4-0 win over Rayo Vallecano, although Héctor Fort’s protracted shoulder injury has dampened the mood somewhat. Villarreal, who have just stumbled to a 2-0 defeat to Barcelona after a red card for Renato Veiga, still have four wins from their last five league games and are slight favorites in the betting market. The recent head-to-head record is almost even, with two wins and a draw each, and Villarreal’s last visit to the Martínez Valero ended in a 3-1 win for Elche in February 2023. These games tend to be high-scoring, especially before the break, which adds extra appeal to the clash between Sarabia’s bold, possession-oriented Elche and a Villarreal side whose full-backs Cardona and Pedraza often provide the attacking impetus.
- Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche
- Date and time: January 3, 2026, 6:30 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (Matchday 18)
A bet on a Villarreal win continues to offer value, even though the bookmakers have the visitors at 2.2, because Marcelino’s Champions League contenders have a broader squad and are in better form in the league than surprise package Elche, despite the Martínez Valero fortress. Forts’ injury and Villarreal’s makeshift defense also steer our assessment towards high-scoring betting markets, so Over 2.5 goals and Both teams to score: Yes best reflect how Elche’s variable attack and Villarreal’s defensive absences interact.
Elche CF Form & Record Check
Elche are on a clear upward trend at this point in the season. Ninth in La Liga with 22 points and a small positive goal difference, they are just one point behind Athletic Club and two ahead of Sevilla, which shows how tight the mid-table is, and they remain unbeaten at home in La Liga at the Martínez Valero, something that already feels fundamental to their identity. Their recent run in all competitions has been strong, with four wins in their last five games and not a single draw. In the league, they thrashed Girona 3-0 and Rayo Vallecano 4-0 at home, bookended by a 3-1 defeat at Mallorca that cooled some of the early season euphoria, and in the Copa they prevailed against Quintanar del Rey after extra time before securing a controlled 1-0 away win at Eibar. These games paint a clear picture: Elche have scored in each of their last five outings and have never been behind at halftime during that period. The first halves tend to be tight and low-scoring, while the second halves open up and most games end with more than two goals, suggesting a team that can pick up the pace and take more risks once the game settles down. Individually, there are encouraging signs, but also a major setback, as Fort has become an offensive reference point from the full-back position, with two goals and two assists this season, and against Rayo he scored the 1-0 before suffering the shoulder injury that now makes his return uncertain, which is why Sarabia must redistribute this goal threat, perhaps with even greater emphasis on attackers such as Rodríguez, Valera, or Neto. Overall, the picture is one of a newly promoted team that is slightly ahead of schedule. The combination of dominant home performances and a solid cup run to the round of 16 has generated real confidence, even if the setback in Mallorca is a reminder that away games away from the Martínez Valero in La Liga remain challenging, and perhaps managing this contrast will determine whether they remain in mid-table or set their sights on Europe.
Elche are expected to line up in a 3-4-3 system under Éder Sarabia, at least according to our predicted starting XI, with Iñaki Peña in goal in front of a back three of Donald, Affengruber, and Bigas. Núñez and Pedrosa will push forward as wide midfielders, Aguado and Febas will form the central midfield duo, while Valera and Álvaro Rodríguez will support Rafa Mir in a flexible attacking line. This lineup remains a possibility because Héctor Fort is unavailable after shoulder surgery, a full-back who had gained importance under Sarabia and whose absence opens up that side for alternatives. In our prediction, Núñez will therefore start on the wing, while the bench will be led by defensive cover such as Chust and Diaby, as well as offensive options such as Diangana or André Silva, which would allow Sarabia to adjust a team already described as possession-oriented during the game.
Villarreal Form & Record Check
Villarreal come to Elche with a clear contrast between solid league stability and recent setbacks in cup competitions. In La Liga, they sit in fourth place with 35 points and a goal difference of 16, just two points behind Atlético Madrid and two ahead of Espanyol, and with two games in hand, this run of four wins from their last five league games almost feels like a virtual third place. However, recent performances in all competitions paint a harsher picture, with the 2-0 home defeat to Barcelona, influenced by Renato Veiga’s red card, followed by the 2-1 Copa del Rey exit at Racing Santander and the 3-2 home defeat to FC Copenhagen in the Champions League, a game that confirmed their elimination, a run that falls well short of expectations for a team fighting for Champions League places. Statistically, Villarreal’s recent games in all competitions have been close rather than chaotic, with four of the last five games seeing less than one and a half goals in the first half, but the final scores exceeded that mark in 80% of cases. Perhaps Marcelino’s structure keeps things under control early on, and later the team either relaxes or loses its balance when fatigue and substitutions set in. Personnel problems partly explain the slump and increase the risk for January. In defense, Logan Costa, Foyth, and Mouriño are all unavailable, limiting rotation in a month with four league games and two in Europe. In midfield, Villarreal are missing Gueye and the injured Partey, while Ilias and Cabanes are out further up front, leaving the squad shallower than Marcelino would like.
Villarreal are expected to stick with their usual 4-4-2 formation under Marcelino, with a likely starting lineup featuring Júnior in goal behind a back four of Navarro, Marín, Kambwala, and Cardona. In midfield, Buchanan and Moleiro provide width, while Comesaña and Parejo cover the center, and up front, Moreno could start alongside Pérez. This lineup is predicted and has not been confirmed by the club. Defensively, they are thin in central defense, with Costa, Foyth, and Mouriño all out, so Marín and Kambwala will almost certainly have to continue as the center-back pairing. Gueye and Partey are still missing in midfield, which increases the burden on Comesaña and Parejo. Ilias and Cabanes are also missing, and Veiga, Pedraza, Solomon, Pépé, or Mikautadze could come off the bench to change the game if necessary.
Elche CF – Villarreal Head-to-head & statistics
The record over the last five league games is completely even, with Elche and Villarreal each having two wins and there has been one draw. However, Villarreal has the better goal difference thanks to big home wins with eleven goals scored and seven conceded. Nevertheless, there is no clear psychological dominance, especially as Elche will remember that the most recent encounter in 2023 ended in a 3-1 home win for them. The venue has clearly played a role in this pairing, with Elche unbeaten at home in these encounters, drawing in 2021 and then winning in 2022 and 2023, while Villarreal have struck emphatically in front of their own fans with 4-1 and 4-0 wins, inflating their goal difference and revealing a pattern whereby away trips take some of the edge off both teams, even if the overall results remain evenly balanced. From a goals perspective, it has been a high-scoring pairing, with four of the five games ending with at least three goals and four of them seeing four or more. Elche have scored in four of the five games, Villarreal in four as well, and even when the scoreboard was one-sided, both offenses usually had chances throughout the full ninety minutes. The timing of the goals is also striking, with four of the five encounters seeing at least two goals in the first half, suggesting open starts, while the second halves were quieter, with none of them reaching three goals and not one ending in a draw. This combination suggests games that wake up early and then tip in one direction without turning into chaotic goal fests after the break. Looking at the series, Elche has scored in each of its last three home games against Villarreal, while Villarreal has conceded goals in four of the five games and has only kept a clean sheet once, in the 4-0 win in 2022, a detail that should serve as a warning sign for both coaches, as defensive concentration often determines which team converts these familiar open phases into points.
