The Premier League table will shift at the Amex Stadium when Brighton hosts Burnley on matchday 20, with a struggling mid-table team facing a club in a fierce relegation battle. Fabian Hürzeler’s team is in 14th place in the table with 25 points, closer to Bournemouth below than to Chelsea in 5th place, and has been waiting for a win for six league games. Scott Parker’s Burnley travel to the Amex in 19th place with 12 points, six points from safety and on a ten-game winless streak, yet the bookmakers still see Brighton as favorites. History suggests another close contest. The last meeting at Turf Moor in April 2024 ended 1-1, part of a run in which this fixture has never seen more than three goals and usually both teams have scored. Brighton’s 2-2 comeback at West Ham showed morale but not real dominance, and with analysts highlighting the emerging partnership of Edwards and Broja at Burnley, an away surprise cannot be completely ruled out, even with captain Cullen missing with a long-term injury.
- Venue: Amex Stadium, Brighton
- Date and time: January 3, 2026, 4:00 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 20)
Their attacking play and Welbeck’s recent form justify a bet on “Brighton to win,” while Burnley’s improved connection between Edwards and Broja and Brighton’s shaky defense strongly suggest “both teams to score” and even a small bet on Burnley’s double chance, with the away win trading at 6.5.
Brighton Form & Record Check
Brighton go into this home game on a six-game winless streak in the league, sitting 14th in the table with 25 points and a narrow positive goal difference. That sounds mediocre, but expectations under Fabian Hürzeler were significantly higher after last season’s step forward. Performance hasn’t collapsed, but the team has lost some of the control and tempo that once made them such difficult opponents. In their last five league games, there have been two draws against West Ham, 2-2 away and 1-1 at home, plus a goalless draw against Sunderland. These games showed character, with Danny Welbeck and Joel Veltman pulling the team back at the London Stadium, but they also revealed defensive naivety. Defeats at Liverpool (2-0) and against Arsenal (2-1) made it clear how harshly minor lapses are punished. Statistically, the recent record is strangely divided. Brighton did not lead at halftime in any of these five games, four of which were very close before the break, yet four games ended with at least two goals and Brighton conceded in each. Interestingly, Hürzeler’s team seems to manage its energy better over 90 minutes than it does in the crucial early moments, especially defensively. Hürzeler relies heavily on Lewis Dunk’s leadership and experience, as well as Milner’s work rate and the runs of Mitoma and Minteh, but the midfield mix still seems unsettled. Without the constant control of Carlos Baleba, who is playing in the Africa Cup of Nations, and with Mats Wieffer walking a disciplinary tightrope, Brighton’s structure in front of the defense often looked patchy. In the table, they are level on 25 points with Tottenham and only two points ahead of Bournemouth, five points behind fifth-placed Chelsea, which makes the Europa League discussion quieter but not impossible. The decision to bring back former stalwart Pascal Gross from Dortmund shows that the club has recognized how urgently more calm on the ball is needed.
Brighton are expected to stick with their now familiar 4-2-3-1 formation in our prediction, with Verbruggen in goal and a back four of Veltman, van Hecke, Dunk, and Kadioglu. Wieffer occupies the six position, Gomez acts as the central link, and the front line of Minteh, Mitoma, and Welbeck brings depth in their runs and direct dribbling. In this predicted lineup, Wieffer was originally planned to play alongside Baleba, but Baleba is away at the Africa Cup of Nations, so Fabian Hürzeler could turn to Milner or Hinshelwood for balance. Webster is out long term with a cruciate ligament rupture, leaving Dunk and van Hecke as the expected center-back pairing, although everything still depends on late fitness decisions.
Burnley Form & Record Check
Burnley travels to Brighton with a bleak league record. The team is in 19th place in the table with 12 points and a goal difference of minus 17, already six points adrift of safety and two points behind West Ham. Since their 3-2 win at Wolves in late October, they have not won in ten Premier League games, losing eight of them, so the recent draws have felt more like brief respites than a genuine upturn in form. The recent run of five games highlights the problem. Home defeats to Fulham (3-2) and Newcastle (3-1) and a 2-1 defeat at Newcastle show a team that can score but fails to control games for long periods. Draws against Bournemouth ( 1-1 away, and Everton, 0-0 at Turf Moor, brought some stability but never really suggested a turnaround. The statistics paint a similar picture. Burnley have not won a first half in their last five league games and have lost the opening period twice, while scoring in four of those games and conceding in four. Four of the five games had more than 1.5 goals. It seems as if Parker’s team reacts better once it falls behind, but the structure before that remains fragile. Injuries and absences have not helped. Captain Cullen is out long term with a cruciate ligament injury, while Foster and Hannibal are at the Africa Cup of Nations and defenders Humphreys, Tuanzebe, and Roberts are unavailable. This has significantly disrupted continuity in the spine. Flemming’s goals per minute and the work of Broja and Tchaouna give hope, but the club’s own January report admits that they clearly lack additional goal threat. Perhaps that is the most frustrating aspect for Burnley fans. In the 2025 calendar year, they actually outperformed last season’s relegated teams Leicester, Ipswich, and Southampton, and Flemming was praised nationwide as a good bargain. However, their current league record is back below that level, so the January signings of a finisher and another creative option seem less like opportunism and more like a necessity.
Burnley are expected to stick with their now familiar 3-4-3 formation. Dubravka should start in goal, behind a back three of Ekdal, Esteve, and Worrall. Walker and Lucas Pires will likely operate as aggressive wingbacks, while Ugochukwu and Florentino cover the central areas. Up front, Edwards and Tchaouna will support Broja, giving Scott Parker pace and dribbling ability on both sides of a center forward. In this draft, Florentino takes on the deeper, organizing role that Cullen had before his cruciate ligament injury. With Humphreys and Roberts out and Tuanzebe, Hannibal, and Foster away at the Africa Cup of Nations, defensive and offensive rotation is limited, so Flemming and Barnes appear to be the most likely substitutes to make an impact off the bench. Beyer could come on for one of the center backs if Parker needs a little more recovery time. All of this remains speculation, as official team announcements could still bring one or two changes, especially in the back three or on the wings.
Brighton – Burnley Head-to-Head & Statistics
In the last five Premier League matches between Brighton and Burnley, the record is one win and three draws. Brighton’s only win came away from home in 2021, Burnley’s only win followed in 2022, and the remaining three games, including the most recent in 2024, ended in draws. In terms of goals, Burnley leads 7-5, but overall the matchups appear to be very evenly balanced. Home advantage has played a surprisingly small role. None of the five games since 2021 has resulted in a home win. Brighton won in Burnley in 2021, while Burnley won 3-0 on the south coast in 2022. The remaining three encounters all ended in draws, showing that away games seem to have little effect on either team. The scoring pattern has been remarkably consistent. All five encounters have produced at least two goals and no game has exceeded three goals, so the match tends to be open but controlled. Burnley scored in every game in this series, Brighton in four out of five, and both teams scored in four of the five matches. In terms of tempo, these matches usually started cautiously. In four of the five games, there was a maximum of one goal in the first half, suggesting that both coaches were cautious in the early stages. At the same time, no second half has produced more than two goals, so the intensity after the break has been measured rather than chaotic. Looking ahead to the next meeting, the clearest historical signal is Burnley’s streak of scoring in this fixture over five games and Brighton’s inability to keep a clean sheet during that period. There is much to suggest that Fabian Hürzeler will tend towards a slightly more compact formation, while Scott Parker will likely trust that Burnley’s habit of scoring against this opponent will continue.
