With five consecutive games without a win against Eintracht Frankfurt and only a two-point lead over Augsburg, the pressure on Hamburger SV ahead of matchday 15 at the Volksparkstadion is palpable. HSV go into this home game in 14th place in the Bundesliga, while Frankfurt travel to Hamburg in 7th place, with their 3-0 home win in the last league match in 2018 in the back of their minds, which extended their unbeaten run against Hamburg to five games at the time. However, Hamburg are coming off a 1-4 defeat at Hoffenheim after previously putting in solid performances at home, and are further weakened by the absences of Poulsen, Dompé, and Glatzel, while Fabio Vieira and Gui Ramos remain doubtful. Eintracht recently scraped a hard-fought 1-0 win against Augsburg, keeping them within striking distance of a European spot, but they looked tired and will now have to do without Skhiri, Chaibi and the suspended Theate. Tactically, it promises to be a duel between HSV’s high intensity and Eintracht’s individual quality. Polzin’s team runs a lot, creates a lot of chances, but converts too few, while Frankfurt has two players up front in Doan and Uzun who have already collected eight points each. At the same time, Eintracht has already conceded 20 goals away from home in the Bundesliga. This mix makes a close afternoon with high stakes in Hamburg seem very realistic.
- Venue: Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
- Date and time: December 20, 2025, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 15)
The bookmakers see Frankfurt just ahead of HSV with odds of around 2.5 to 2.6, so we believe a slightly more nuanced approach is warranted. Hamburg’s strong home form, even without Poulsen and Dompé, supports the double chance 1X on HSV or a draw, while Eintracht Frankfurt’s squad depth, strengthened by the Champions League, visible in late substitutions against Augsburg and influential players such as Uzun, argues in favor of betting on Frankfurt to win – 2nd half and over 1.5 goals – 2nd half.
HSV Form & Record Check
Hamburger SV enters matchday 15 with a mixed Bundesliga record. The team is in 14th place in the table with 15 points, level with Wolfsburg ahead of them and only two points ahead of Augsburg behind them, meaning that any result could quickly bring them closer to the danger zone. In their last five competitive games, they have had two league wins, two league defeats, and elimination from the cup on penalties. This up-and-down form is also reflected in their most recent encounters: they lost 1-0 in Augsburg without any notable offensive output, then responded at home with wins against Stuttgart (2-1) and Bremen (3-2), which underlined their superiority at the Volksparkstadion. Their elimination from the DFB Cup against Holstein Kiel after a 1-1 draw and defeat on penalties, as well as their 4-1 collapse in Hoffenheim, once again highlighted their inconsistency. Statistically, the team is vulnerable in both directions. In four of their last five competitive games, HSV scored but conceded in all five, mostly after the break, suggesting a decline in defensive compactness. Interestingly, four of those first halves remained below 1.5 goals, with the games opening up later, and the physical data suggests that they can basically maintain the intensity. Personnel problems are also affecting this form phase. With experienced strikers Poulsen and Glatzel out and Dompé also missing, Polzin is relying more on Philippe, Königsdörffer, Jatta, and Baldé in attack. Remberg returns to midfield alongside Lokonga after his suspension, and this duo can stabilize possession. It could well be that a reshuffled attack works better at home than in fragile away games. Vieira and Ramos remain doubtful.
Interestingly, nothing has been confirmed yet, but Hamburg are likely to stick with their predicted 3-4-3 formation, with Heuer Fernandes in goal behind a back three of Capaldo, Vuskovic, and Torunarigha. Gocholeishvili and Muheim should provide width as wingbacks, while Lokonga and the returning Remberg secure the central midfield. Up front, Jatta and Philippe Baldé are likely to provide support in a mobile attacking line. However, this lineup remains a projection, as Polzin is missing several key attackers. Poulsen, Glatzel, Dompé, Omari, and Røssing-Lelesiit are all ruled out, increasing the chances for Jatta, Philippe, Baldé, and possibly Königsdörffer in the forward positions. Vieira and Ramos remain doubtful after illness and, if they are even included in the squad, would likely only come off the bench.
Frankfurt Form & Record Check
Eintracht Frankfurt travels to Hamburg in mixed form. The table suggests stability, with the team in 7th place, 24 points and a balanced goal difference, just one point behind Stuttgart and six ahead of Union Berlin, which supports Markus Krösche’s statement that they are still close to the international places. However, the last five competitive games have yielded only one win, one draw and three defeats, including heavy losses to Atalanta and RB Leipzig. In the league, the 1-0 win against Augsburg felt more like a relief than a clear statement. Frankfurt struggled before the break, with the attack looking static and technical players such as Chaibi and Götze performing below their usual standard. It was only after Brown, Uzun, and Højlund came on as substitutes that the team gained more momentum. Doan forced the decisive goal after a deflection, two close offside decisions went against Augsburg, and even Dino Toppmöller described the victory as primarily a feat of willpower. At the same time, structural problems are obvious. The 0-3 home defeat to Atalanta and, above all, the 0-6 defeat in Leipzig showed how quickly they can lose control, while the 1-1 draw with Wolfsburg highlighted how difficult it is for them to close out games. In their last five games, Frankfurt have conceded goals in four, often after the break, and they have already conceded 20 goals away from home in the Bundesliga. This has made their pattern of play predictable. In four of their last five games, at least two goals were scored after halftime, and Frankfurt conceded just as often in the second half, while the first half remained comparatively quiet. This is typical of a team that drifts at first and then has to react, which could also be related to fatigue after an intense fall with Bundesliga and Champions League matches. Offensively, however, there is still room for improvement. Doan and Uzun have each been involved in eight goals, and Frankfurt has won every game in which Doan has scored or provided an assist. With Skhiri and Chaibi missing and attackers such as Burkardt and Batshuayi injured, the pressure on this creative group is growing, and it seems as if the team is currently relying more on individual moments than on a clear structure.
Eintracht are expected to stick with their familiar 3-4-2-1 formation, with our predicted line-up seeing Zetterer in goal and Kristensen, Koch, and Collins in front of him in a back three. Doan and Brown occupy the wings, Larsson and Dahoud the central midfield, while Uzun and Götze play behind Knauff. This structure gives Dino Toppmöller a lot of resilience against pressing in the center and pace in transition. Important absences characterize this predicted starting eleven, as Skhiri and Chaibi are missing due to the Africa Cup of Nations and Burkardt and Batshuayi are injured. Theate is suspended after picking up his fifth yellow card, and Koch had calf problems against Augsburg, so Amenda could be needed if there is a setback. Up front, Knauff starts centrally, with Wahi and Ngankam the main options off the bench, and overall this remains a prediction.
HSV – Frankfurt Head-to-head & statistics
Interestingly, Frankfurt have clearly had the upper hand in the last five meetings between Hamburger SV and Eintracht Frankfurt, which were played between 2016 and 2018, with three wins and two draws. That gives them an unbeaten run of five games in this fixture, while HSV have failed to win during that period. The overall goal difference is 8-1 in Frankfurt’s favor, underscoring how one-sided the results have been. Chronologically, a scoreless draw in 2016 opened this series, before Frankfurt followed up with a 3-0 away win in the same year. Another 0-0 draw followed in 2017, before Eintracht narrowly won 2-1 in Hamburg and concluded the series with a 3-0 home win in 2018. During this period, HSV scored only once and failed to score in four games. Statistically, these games were rather close despite some clear margins in the overall goal tally. Each game had fewer than four goals, and in four of the five games, there was a maximum of one goal in the first half. Hamburg did not score a single goal in the second half in this series, while Frankfurt did not concede a goal after the break, so the late stages tended to belong to the Hessians. All five encounters took place in the league between 2016 and 2018, so the sample is clearly defined but already somewhat distant historically. Frankfurt can nevertheless draw a certain amount of confidence from their unbeaten record and repeated clean sheets, while for HSV, the memory of scoring only one goal in five games against this opponent remains in the background rather than serving as a direct predictor.
