In terms of form, both teams are brimming with confidence: Stuttgart responded to their 5-0 defeat in Munich with a dominant 4-0 win in Bremen and a strong run in the Europa League, even though Undav and Nübel repeatedly emphasize that their performances still fall short of their own expectations. Hoffenheim swept Hamburg off the pitch 4-1, and with 26 points, the national season under Christian Ilzer appears to be clearly on track. In a direct comparison, the duel is evenly matched, with the last encounter in February ending 1-1 in Sinsheim, and in the past five Bundesliga games, each team has recorded one win and three draws, mostly with goals on both sides. Stuttgart now has to compensate for the creativity of the missing El Khannouss, while Hoffenheim has to do without Touré and several injured defenders, factors that could quietly tip the scales in favor of the home side.
- Venue: MHPArena, Stuttgart
- Date and time: 20.12.2025, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (matchday 15)
The bet Both teams to score: Yes fits well with two offensively minded teams and Stuttgart’s occasional lapses, as seen in their 4-1 win over Maccabi despite clear control of the game. The riskier option of betting on a VfB win in the first half is based on their often very aggressive starts and the form of Undav, Leweling, and Führich.
Stuttgart form & record check
Stuttgart go into the game against Hoffenheim with a peculiar mixture of dominance and vulnerability. In the Bundesliga, they responded to the 5-0 home collapse against Bayern and the 2-1 defeat in Hamburg with a convincing 4-0 win in Bremen. Across all competitions, the 2-0 cup win in Bochum and the 4-1 win against Maccabi Tel Aviv show that coach Sebastian Hoeneß’s team still has a lot of potential. Statistically, the last five competitive games are clear outliers: there was not a single draw, every game had more than 1.5 goals in total and 80% had more than 2.5. Stuttgart scored in 80% of these games and also in 80% of the second halves, but the heavy defeat to Bayern underscores that this high-scoring profile often comes with defensive risks and periods of passivity. Within the team, the mood is more ambitious than euphoric: After the 4-1 win against Maccabi Tel Aviv, Undav openly criticized the sloppy second half, describing it as a mentality problem. Nübel also warned that the team too often sits back once it takes the lead, linking this to the Bayern collapse, which could ultimately prove to be an important driver for greater consistency. On the pitch, several key players are shaping this form curve. Leweling delivered an outstanding performance in Bremen with a goal and assists, Mittelstädt and Führich bring power from deeper positions, and Undav remains the central point of attack. The loss of El Khannouss to international duty reduces the creative variability, although Demirovic is reportedly close to a return and should provide another option in attack. Stuttgart are sixth in the table with 25 points, just one behind Hoffenheim and one ahead of Frankfurt, and Hoeneß has described this weekend as exactly the kind of test his team now needs in the battle for the top four, especially as recent fluctuations will show whether the controlled version from Bremen or the vulnerable one from the Bayern game will prevail.
Stuttgart are expected to stick with their usual 3-4-2-1 formation from the predicted line-up, with Nübel in goal behind a back three of Jeltsch, Chabot, and Hendriks. Vagnoman and Mittelstädt are expected to provide width, while Karazor and Stiller will cover the center. Between the lines, Leweling and Führich are expected to support Undav, who remains the first choice at the top of the attack, but this is still a predicted lineup and not a confirmed one. Notable in this prediction is the absence of El Khannouss, who is away with his national team, as well as injured defenders Jaquez and Zagadou, limiting defensive rotation options. Demirovic is considered to be close to a comeback and could come off the bench rather than start, while several squad players are ineligible to play in the Europa League, which limits Hoeneß, especially when it comes to late substitutions.
Hoffenheim Form & Record Check
Hoffenheim travels to Stuttgart in impressively calm Bundesliga form. Three wins, one draw, and only one defeat from their last five league games have lifted them to fifth place with 26 points and a positive goal difference of 9. They are level on points with Bayer Leverkusen above them and have a narrow one-point lead over Stuttgart, so the gaps around the European places are minimal. At home, they have just beaten Leipzig, Augsburg, and Hamburg 3-1, 3-0, and 4-1, a run that culminated in the victory over HSV and was described in a German headline as Hoffenheim overrunning the visitors, even though around 15,000 traveling fans were supporting HSV. Away from Sinsheim, the picture is more balanced, with a 1-1 draw in Mainz and a 2-0 defeat in Dortmund dampening the euphoria. In terms of patterns, they often start quickly, with Hoffenheim leading and scoring in the first half in most of their last five league games, while they almost never go into the break level, with the second halves usually being quieter. It could be that Ilzer focuses his planning heavily on the early stages, with Kabak, Prömel, Burger, and the mobile forwards providing early momentum, and the game being managed after the break. If there is cause for concern, it is in defense, as Hoffenheim has conceded goals in most of these five league games, and Ilzer has to work without several defenders, as Machida, Frees, and Behrens are all out. Touré, who recently made an impact coming off the bench against Hamburg, is now away on international duty, so it will be a real test to maintain this level while rotating the squad.
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim are expected to stick with their usual 4-2-3-1 formation under Christian Ilzer, and our predicted line-up is the same as the one that comfortably beat Hamburg in the Bundesliga, with Baumann in goal, a back four of Coufal, Hranac, Kabak, and Hajdari, Burger and Prömel as double sixes, and Avdullahu, Kramaric, and Hlozek behind lone striker Asllani. At the back, the absences of Machida, Frees, and Behrens limit Ilzer’s defensive options, so it would not be surprising to see Bernardo or Akpoguma come on as substitutes later in the game. Touré is still missing on the wings due to his national team commitments, which opens up minutes for Avdullahu, Hlozek or substitutes such as Bebou and Berisha. Geiger could also come into play if additional stability is required. However, official confirmation will only be available with the match report.
Stuttgart – Hoffenheim Head-to-head & statistics
The record is completely even in the last five Bundesliga meetings, with one win for Stuttgart, one for Hoffenheim and three draws. Stuttgart’s victory came in 2024 with a 3-0 away win, while Hoffenheim’s success was a 3-2 win in Stuttgart in 2023. Overall, Stuttgart has scored 8 goals and conceded 6, which is only a very narrow advantage. Three of these games ended 1-1, including the most recent meeting in February 2025 and the draws in 2024 and 2023, and there has not been a single goalless game in this series. In four of the five encounters, both teams scored, with an average of just under three goals per game, so the games tend to be open but not wild. Stuttgart has scored in all five encounters, Hoffenheim has conceded in all of them, and Stuttgart has scored after the break in each of the last four games, which coincides with a run of four games in which Hoffenheim has conceded in the second half. Interestingly, the late stages could once again play a decisive role. All games in this sample have seen at least two goals scored, and only Hoffenheim’s 3-2 win in 2023 produced more than three goals. In Stuttgart, the last three league games have ended in two 1-1 draws and one home defeat, so home advantage has not been a dominant factor. Another close result with chances at both ends would continue this established pattern.
