Third against fifth, only two points separating them and plenty of pressure in the battle for European places: At Signal Iduna Park, Borussia Dortmund (25 points) and Hoffenheim (23 points) face off in a match that could mean a significant step towards the top six for both teams. Dortmund are coming off a 1-0 defeat to Bayer Leverkusen in the DFB Cup, a loss that once again showed how difficult it is for BVB to convert their dominance into goals. The scene in which Serhou Guirassy refused to shake Niko Kovac’s hand after being substituted added fuel to the fire, even though it has been resolved internally. At the same time, Dortmund can draw on their recent league form, such as their 2-1 win against Leverkusen a few days earlier.
Hoffenheim are traveling with a lot of momentum, as their 3-0 win against Augsburg extended their unbeaten run to five league games with four wins. Christian Ilzer’s team are looking remarkably stable at the moment and are confident they can seriously challenge Dortmund away from home. In a direct comparison, however, Dortmund has a slight advantage. Last April, the hosts won 3-2 in Sinsheim, and in four of the last five encounters, they led at halftime, while Hoffenheim conceded goals in all five of those games.
- Venue: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
- Date and time: December 7, 2025, 5:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (matchday 13)
The market rates Borussia Dortmund as the clear favorite with odds of 1.6, but recent form and personnel issues paint a more nuanced picture. Without Niklas Süle and with Dortmund conceding goals in each of their last four home games, the hosts appear more vulnerable than the odds suggest. Hoffenheim are coming into the game on the back of five league games without defeat, scoring in each of those encounters. Both teams are consistent in attack and tend to score in the second half, which further increases the likelihood of goals at both ends.
Given Hoffenheim’s stability and Dortmund’s defensive vulnerability without Süle, the double chance in favor of Hoffenheim, i.e. X2, seems an interesting value option against the low-odds favorites Borussia Dortmund. In addition, markets such as Both Teams to Score: Yes and Over 2.5 Goals are available, especially with a view to possible goals in the second half. As a betting strategy, it makes sense to prioritize X2 as the main selection and Both Teams to Score.
Dortmund Form & Record Check
Borussia Dortmund is in third place in the Bundesliga with 25 points, one point behind RB Leipzig and two ahead of Bayer Leverkusen. However, results across competitions have been inconsistent, with important league wins repeatedly followed by draws, and the league win against Leverkusen followed shortly afterwards by elimination from the DFB Cup against the same opponent.
The offensive potential is clearly visible on the pitch, as exemplified by the 4-0 win against Villarreal in the Champions League, but recurring defensive problems are slowing BVB down, as seen in the 3-3 draw against Stuttgart and the 1-1 draw against Hamburger SV. There is a noticeable pattern of slow starts, with less than two goals scored in the first half in four of the last five games, and Dortmund only becoming significantly more dangerous after the break. Tactically, the team often seems sluggish in implementing its own plan early on, allowing opponents to remain compact and forcing Dortmund to turn the game around late. Set pieces and heading ability, as seen in the league win at the BayArena, are certainly weapons, but in knockout games, the team has so far lacked the necessary punch in front of goal and in game management, compounded by individual errors in defense that have directly cost points.
In terms of personnel, it is particularly worth keeping an eye on Serhou Guirassy, whose form has dropped with only one goal in his last eight league appearances and who caused unrest after the Leverkusen game by refusing to shake hands with coach Niko Kovac, even though the incident is considered to have been resolved. Jobe Bellingham is still in the adjustment phase and is falling short of expectations, while Nico Schlotterbeck’s inconsistent performances and interest from FC Bayern are creating additional uncertainty in central defense.
In the short term, the focus is on sharpening the intensity and game plan in the first half, with clearer pressing triggers and faster transitions after winning the ball, in order to be less dependent on comebacks after the break. At the same time, defensive concentration and error control must be specifically trained, for example in set pieces and in the coordination of the back line, while confidence and finishing ability in attack should be strengthened through individual training sessions. Fabio Silva remains an option for rotation here, either as a super sub or, depending on the training week, as a starter.
In the medium term, the club management should proactively clarify the situation surrounding Schlotterbeck, either with a long-term extension to stabilize the defense or with a sale in the summer to avoid a transfer-free departure. At the same time, the depth of the attack needs to be reassessed if Guirassy’s dip in form continues, and Bellingham’s development needs to be supported with targeted individual coaching. In dealing with the team, a clear line and consistent communication are important after the Guirassy incident, supplemented by sports psychology input and thoughtful rotation to keep heads clear and legs fresh. Overall, Dortmund has enough quality to remain a title contender and competitive internationally, but slow starts, defensive weaknesses, and unrest off the pitch must be addressed quickly and decisively.
Borussia Dortmund are likely to start under Niko Kovac in a 4-2-3-1 formation with Kobel in goal. In defense, Ryerson is expected to play at right-back, Anton and Schlotterbeck as center-backs and Bensebaini on the left. Niklas Süle is out with a toe injury, so Anton will form the center-back pairing with Schlotterbeck. In front of them, Can and Sabitzer will play in a double six.
In the attacking trio, Adeyemi is expected to play on the left, Brandt in the center as playmaker and Nmecha on the right, supporting lone striker Guirassy. The 4-2-3-1 has generally given Kovac more defensive stability, but recent performances suggest possible adjustments during the game, especially as Guirassy has only scored once in his last eight league games despite his status as a regular starter. Beier and Couto could be important as effective substitutes from the bench if tactical or personnel changes are necessary.
Hoffenheim Form & Record Check
Hoffenheim travels to Dortmund in strong form, sitting fifth in the Bundesliga with 23 points, level on points with Bayer Leverkusen and one point ahead of VfB Stuttgart. A run of three wins and a draw in the league has propelled Christian Ilzer’s side into the thick of the battle for European places and given them visible confidence.
The recent 3-0 home win against Augsburg, with Toure and Burger scoring before an own goal sealed the final score, underlined the team’s attacking prowess and ability to control games when their game plan is working. The current unbeaten run also includes a 3-2 win in Wolfsburg and a 3-1 home win against RB Leipzig, with Hoffenheim only dropping points in a 1-1 draw in Mainz. They have scored in all of these league games and have scored at least one goal in each of their last five games in all competitions, but have conceded in four of those games, and each of those five games has seen more than 1.5 goals, suggesting relatively open games with chances at both ends.
Adam Hlozek is still out with fitness issues, which limits the options up front, while long-term injuries to Machida, Frees, and Behrens mean they’re unavailable in defense. The current system is still scoring goals reliably, but rotation and squad depth could be an issue, especially away from home in an intense stadium like Signal Iduna Park. Overall, Hoffenheim are traveling with a strong offensive form and look dangerous up front, but their susceptibility to conceding goals and the absences in the squad could prove decisive against a top opponent, especially as an open game with chances for both sides is to be expected.
Hoffenheim are likely to line up in a 4-3-1-2 formation under Christian Ilzer, with Gregor Baumann in goal. In front of him is a back four with Vladimir Coufal at right-back, Marek Hranac and Arbnor Hajdari in central defense, and Bernardo on the left.
In midfield, Erik Prömel, Arbnor Avdullahu, and Ruben Burger will provide balance and defensive cover, while Eliel Asllani will link the midfield and attack as a number 10. Ibrahima Touré and Maximilian Lemperle are likely to lead the attack. Key absentees include Adam Hložek, who remains sidelined due to fitness issues, reducing the depth of the attack, as well as Philipp Machida, Nico Behrens, and Maximilian Frees in defense, which limits the options at the back. Interestingly, despite these absences, the reported starting lineup looks capable of coping with the current limitations, provided that all of the players mentioned are fit to play.
Dortmund – Hoffenheim Head-to-Head & Statistics
In a direct comparison of the last five encounters, Dortmund has the upper hand with three wins, while Hoffenheim has one win and one draw. Dortmund scored in all five games, while Hoffenheim conceded goals in each of those matches.
The most recent results include Dortmund’s 3-2 win in Hoffenheim in April 2025, the 1-1 draw in Dortmund in December 2024, and a 3-2 home win for Hoffenheim earlier in 2024. Four of the last five encounters have seen more than 1.5 goals scored in total, with both teams often finding the net, underlining the tendency for these games to be attacking affairs with defensive weaknesses on both sides.
A clear pattern emerges in the first 45 minutes, with Dortmund winning the first half in the last three consecutive head-to-head matches and scoring at least one goal in each of those periods, while Hoffenheim trailed at the break in each case. For Christian Ilzer, this means that he must address the early defensive weaknesses in particular if his team is to avoid falling behind early again.
