Two worlds collide in Sardinia when Cagliari host AS Roma: the visitors are in fourth place with 27 points and have genuine title ambitions, while the hosts are in 15th place with 11 points and are trying to pull away from the relegation zone. The recent head-to-head record clearly favors the Romans, with Cagliari failing to win any of the last five encounters, suffering four defeats and one draw.

Both teams come into this game on the back of a defeat to Napoli. Cagliari put up a good fight in the Coppa Italia after a 1-1 draw, but then lost 10-9 on penalties, lacking the cutting edge in the decisive moments. Roma lost 1-0 to Napoli in the league, which slowed their momentum briefly, but overall they are having a strong season, with Roma having collected the most points in Serie A so far in the 2025 calendar year.

Under Fabio Pisacane, Cagliari has gained defensive organization, but lacks clear solutions in the final third. Under Gian Piero Gasperini, Roma usually plays with high pressing, controls the ball, and exploits transitions. They should punish Cagliari’s limited offensive threat, especially as set pieces and quick counterattacks are likely to be important for both sides. Sebastiano Esposito, who recently scored the equalizer from the penalty spot in the cup, is Cagliari’s main hope, while Roma need creative offensive players who can break down compact defenses and translate the Giallorossi’s consistent form so far into another victory. A controlled away win, such as 2-0 or 2-1 for Roma, seems most likely, so the bet AS Roma wins and both teams score is a good option.

• Venue: Unipol Domus, Cagliari
• Date and time: 07.12.2025, 3:00 p.m.
• Competition: Serie A (matchday 14)

Roma’s current form, with four wins in a row and only six goals conceded in 12 Serie A games, stands in stark contrast to Cagliari’s negative run. The hosts are without a win in five competitive games and weakened by important absences in attack. The market odds of around 1.70 for AS Roma to win reflect their status as favorites, but could still underestimate the Romans’ defensive control, considering how difficult Cagliari find it to score goals.

A little bolder is AS Roma to lead at halftime, as the Romans have scored the first goal in four consecutive games, so the halftime bet could offer more value than the outright win bet. Even more specific are variants such as AS Roma to win to nil or AS Roma to win and under 3.5 goals. Cagliari’s weakness in front of goal and the absences in attack increase the chance of a win without conceding a goal. The combination bet usually offers more attractive odds compared to the pure to nil option, but should only be played with a smaller stake due to the higher variance. In general, all bets involve risk. Spontaneous injuries, tactical adjustments, or late lineup news can shift the balance of power, so it makes sense to place the majority of your stake on the simple tip AS Roma wins, go moderately on the halftime lead, and use the clean sheet or combination bets only speculatively, ideally after looking at the confirmed lineups and the live game progress.

Cagliari form & record check

Cagliari is in 15th place in Serie A with 11 points from 13 games, level on points with 16th-placed Genoa and two points behind Lecce. The lower mid-table is tightly packed and the club’s recent form brings it dangerously close to the relegation battle.

Cagliari are without a win in five games in all competitions, with three draws and two defeats. Notable results include a 2-1 defeat at Juventus, in which Sebastiano Esposito initially scored the opening goal before Yildiz turned the game around with two goals, and a 1-1 draw in the Coppa Italia at Napoli, after which Cagliari were eliminated 10-9 on penalties. Esposito had also equalized, but Felici and Luvumbo missed in the shootout. Added to this were a frustrating 3-3 draw at home against Genoa and a goalless 0-0 draw in Como.

The core problems are clear to see: defensively, Cagliari have conceded goals in four of their last five games and show weaknesses at key moments; offensively, a lot depends on Esposito’s form; if he drops off or fails to score, the team’s attacking power drops significantly. Missed penalties and late lapses have cost important points and momentum.

In terms of personnel, the long list of injuries in attack weighs heavily. Andrea Belotti is out until April with a cruciate ligament injury, Mattia Felici is also out long term, and Zé Pedro is not expected to be available again until the end of December after knee surgery. On a positive note, Luca Mazzitelli is expected to return from a calf injury, which should give the midfield some structure. Under Fabio Pisacane, the team continues to show resilience and cohesion despite the results. With Esposito as the focal point up front, the short-term goal is to stabilize the defense through clear organization and more focus on set pieces, defend leads more consistently, work on penalty reliability, and improve game management in close matches in order to avoid being dragged into the relegation battle. Small steps such as a game without conceding a goal or better conversion of chances could already provide some breathing space in the tight table region.

Cagliari’s expected starting lineup includes Caprile in goal, a back four of Palestra, Luperto, Rodríguez, and Obert, Deiola in the holding midfield role, and Luvumbo, Prati, Gaetano, and Folorunsho in attacking midfield to support striker Kılıçsoy.

Coach Fabio Pisacane is likely to opt for a 4-1-4-1 system, with Deiola covering the area in front of the defense and wingers Luvumbo and Folorunsho supplying lone striker Kılıçsoy with crosses and deep passes.

Andrea Belotti is out with a serious knee injury and Felici has a cruciate ligament rupture, Mazzitelli is doubtful due to a calf problem, and Sebastiano Esposito is likely to start on the bench despite his recent goals and be available as an attacking alternative.

AS Roma form & record check

AS Roma travel to Cagliari with strong momentum behind them. Under Gian Piero Gasperini, they have won four of their last five games in all competitions. No team has collected more Serie A points in the 2025 calendar year. Roma are currently in fourth place, level on points with Inter, so despite their recent 1-0 home defeat to Napoli, the team remain fully in contention in the tight championship race.

This season has been marked by a defensive transformation, with Roma conceding only seven goals in 13 league games, underlining the strong form of goalkeeper Mile Svilar, who was recently named the best keeper of 2025. Gianluca Mancini and Evan Ndicka provide stability in central defense, allowing the team to better cope with injuries in other positions.

This is offset by a vulnerable offense, with Artem Dovbyk out with a thigh injury, who together with Evan Ferguson has scored only three goals so far, and Paulo Dybala, who has only played 479 minutes in 13 league games due to ongoing fitness problems. In the home game against Napoli, Tommaso Baldanzi had to play in an improvised striker role, and despite high possession in the final stages of the game, there were no clear chances.

Before the defeat against Napoli, Roma won 2-1 at Midtjylland in the Europa League, followed by a 3-1 away win at Cremonese and clean sheet victories against Udinese and Rangers. Statistically, Roma have been particularly strong in the first halves of recent games, winning and scoring in the first half in 80% of their most recent matches. At the same time, these early stages of the game have mostly been low-scoring, often with under 1.5 goals before the break. In the short term, further personnel issues are complicating planning. Angeliño has only just returned to training after a long break due to asthmatic bronchitis, Edoardo Bove continues to struggle with heart problems, Baldanzi has just recovered from the flu, and Ndicka and Neil El Aynaoui will be absent later this month due to their involvement in the Africa Cup of Nations. With the timing of Dovbyk’s return still uncertain, reinforcements in January appear crucial if Roma are to turn their defensive foundation into a sustainable title challenge.

AS Roma are expected to line up in a 3-4-2-1 formation once again, with a solid back three and two wing-backs who have played a big part in their strong defensive record this season.

No changes are expected in goal, and the central defensive line of three center backs should also remain unchanged. Tsimikas is likely to start at left wing-back, while Angeliño is back in training after more than two months out with bronchitis but will probably start on the bench. In midfield, the combination of central players and wing-backs remains important to protect the defense. Tommaso Baldanzi has recovered from his flu and could play a role in attacking midfield.

In attack, Pellegrini and Soulé are expected to occupy the two forward midfield and attacking positions behind the striker, with Baldanzi offering himself as an alternative or rotation player. Artem Dovbyk is still out with a thigh strain, so Evan Ferguson is expected to start up front again. The final lineup, especially in attacking midfield, will depend on the coach’s decision shortly before kickoff, so late team news should be followed closely.

Cagliari – AS Roma Head-to-head & statistics

AS Roma have clearly dominated recent head-to-head matches, winning four of the last five encounters between 2022 and March 2025, plus a 0-0 draw in August 2024. The results at a glance: 1-0 in 2022, 4-1 in 2023, 4-0 in 2024, 0-0 in August 2024, and 1-0 in March 2025.

Cagliari scored only once in those five games, in the 4-1 win in 2023, while AS Roma scored in four of the five games, highlighting the Sardinians’ offensive problems and the Giallorossi’s consistency. Psychologically and tactically, there is a lot to be said for AS Roma. To break the pattern, Cagliari needs more creative ideas in the final third and better finishing. Based on recent encounters, a low-scoring game or a narrow victory for AS Roma still seems the most plausible scenario.