A 3-1 win against Chelsea can turn a whole season around. For Leeds and coach Daniel Farke, this victory means breathing space in the relegation battle and new energy ahead of the clash with Liverpool. The win has lifted the team out of the danger zone for now, while the visitors are clearly in a form crisis with only four wins from 14 league games, ninth place and significantly higher expectations. The tactical framework is also exciting, as Leeds is benefiting from the switch to a back three, which already brought stability against Chelsea, and with Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Lukas Nmecha, they have very physical strikers who are looking for long balls and high passes and could thus attack precisely those weaknesses that Liverpool revealed in defending direct play and long balls in their 1-1 draw with Sunderland. However, both strikers reported muscle problems after the last game, and their participation is questionable, which directly affects Leeds’ offensive options and match planning. On the other hand, Liverpool seem to be under a lot of mental and tactical pressure, and the team urgently needs more stability and clearer solutions against deep-lying or direct opponents. On paper, Liverpool remain the favorites with their historic record behind them, but Leeds’ current form and newfound confidence suggest an open game, in which the health of the Leeds strikers and Liverpool’s response to pressure situations with long balls could be the deciding factors.
- Venue: Elland Road, Leeds
- Date and time: December 6, 2025, 6:30 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 15)
Those who prefer to bet on goals will find the Over 2.5 Goals market an interesting option, as Leeds have scored at least three goals in each of their last five games, Liverpool have conceded goals in four of their last five games, and at least two goals have been scored in each of those games, meaning that both defenses have looked vulnerable recently and a high-scoring duel seems plausible. A bolder alternative is the double chance 1X, i.e. Leeds or a draw, with odds of around 2.0, buoyed by the euphoria after the home win and the idea that the tactic of long balls, as against Chelsea, especially with Calvert-Lewin and Nmecha, who are likely to be available, can exploit Liverpool’s vulnerability to high passes, especially as Liverpool have won only one of their last five games.
Leeds Form & Record Check
Leeds had a tough run-up to the Chelsea game, with four defeats in a row and only one win from their last seven games, Daniel Farke was under massive pressure and there was already talk within the club of changing the manager so that a potential successor could still have an influence on the January transfers. Against Chelsea, Farke switched from his usual back four to a back three, and this adjustment paid off early on, with Bijol scoring in the 6th minute and Tanaka adding another shortly before halftime. After Neto pulled one back after the break, Calvert-Lewin made it 3-1, giving Farke some breathing room for the time being. Despite this success, however, the situation remains delicate. Leeds are in 17th place with 14 points, just one point ahead of Nottingham Forest and two behind West Ham, and the defense continues to be a key problem, as they conceded more than 2.5 goals in each of their five games prior to the Chelsea match, including a 3-0 defeat to Brighton. Ahead of the match against Liverpool, there are also personnel concerns, with Nmecha and Calvert-Lewin reporting muscle problems after the Chelsea game and are doubtful, James and Longstaff are already definitely out, and Farke also emphasized that Tanaka needs rest after the intense matches against Manchester City and Chelsea, while some new signings are still struggling with the English rhythm and players like Rodon and Ampadu have coped better with the workload so far.
At Leeds, there are many indications that Daniel Farke will opt for a 3-5-2 formation, with clearly defined roles in the back three and midfield and a variable approach up front. Depending on the availability of Nmecha or Calvert-Lewin, Farke could start with two physically strong strikers or opt for a variant with only one of these forwards, thus weighing up between more presence in the center and additional cover in midfield.
Liverpool form & record check
Liverpool are unmistakably in crisis, with ninth place, 22 points, a level goal difference and only four wins from 14 league games, the club and fans are well below expectations, which is also reflected in results such as the 4-1 defeat to PSV and the 1-1 draw with Sunderland despite 23 shots and only four on target, pointing to both finishing problems and defensive weaknesses. In their last five games, Liverpool have never been ahead at halftime, conceded goals in the second half in four of those games, and have seen at least two goals in each game, a pattern that points to vulnerability in the closing stages, a lack of control after the break, and a need for improvement in in-game adjustments. The situation is also complicated in terms of personnel and psychology. Injuries such as Bradley’s, a new signing Isak who has been less than impressive so far with two goals in twelve appearances, the departure of Díaz without an equivalent replacement, and unrest surrounding Salah are increasing the pressure on coach Arne Slot, especially as the first series of three winless home games since 2021 is reinforcing the negative momentum. In the short term, Liverpool needs more defensive stability with clearer roles and rehearsed procedures for the last 15 minutes, targeted training on finishing quality with more shots from real game situations, intensive psychological work with team meetings and greater involvement of leading players, as well as consistent squad management, including clear communication on the Salah rumors, individual fitness plans for injured professionals, and an honest assessment of Isak’s role with the option of supporting him tactically, for example, with a second striker or a closer connection to the midfield. In the medium term, the focus is on a clear transfer strategy for the winter break with a view to signing a central striker or a creative player similar to a number 10, if financially possible, improving the defense on set pieces, and developing a clearly defined game plan for the last 30 minutes, whether that be controlled possession or deliberate transition play depending on the opponent. Overall, the problems are not one-dimensional; they affect tactics, personnel structure, and morale, and only with these adjustments can the downward spiral be stopped. Otherwise, the pressure on the coach and the team will continue to grow.
Liverpool are likely to start in their familiar 4-2-3-1 formation, with Alisson returning in goal after recovering from injury, and a back four of Gomez, Konaté, van Dijk, and Robertson expected in front of him. Endo and Mac Allister should play in defensive midfield, while Salah, Wirtz, and Gakpo will form the attacking trio behind center forward Isak. One important piece of bad news concerns Bradley, who is out with a muscle injury and whose market value is estimated at around €30 million.
Leeds – Liverpool Head-to-Head & Statistics
The last five meetings between Leeds United and Liverpool FC clearly favor the Reds, with three wins for Liverpool, one for Leeds, and one draw. The high scores are striking, most recently the 6-1 away win at Elland Road in April 2023. Leeds secured their only win during this period with a 2-1 victory at Anfield in October 2022, but otherwise Liverpool dominated the encounters, especially in the first halves, as the Reds scored before the break in all five games and Leeds always conceded at least one goal before the interval. The overall goal density was high, with at least two goals scored in each of the five games and four games exceeding the 2.5 goal mark. Liverpool scored at least one goal in all games, while Leeds failed to keep a clean sheet in this series and suffered two particularly heavy defeats, losing 6-0 and 6-1. This presents Leeds and coach Daniel Farke with a clear task, namely to find defensive compactness and stability more quickly, especially in the early stages, when Liverpool have regularly struck early in recent head-to-head matches.
