Two crisis-stricken clubs with new coaches face each other at the Gewiss Stadium, and that is precisely what makes this match so appealing: Atalanta Bergamo, currently 13th in the league with 13 points and without a win in five Serie A games, has installed Raffaele Palladino and travels to Florence on the back of a 3-0 win in Frankfurt in the Champions League, while AC Florence, 19th in the table with six points, is still waiting for its first win of the season and arrives with significant defensive and offensive problems. The clear victory with the quick hat-trick by Lookman, Ederson, and De Ketelaere could visibly boost Atalanta’s confidence, even if their recent league record of three defeats and two draws remains alarming. Under Paolo Vanoli, Fiorentina have only managed draws so far and recently lost 0-1 to AEK Athens, with two of their own goals disallowed after VAR checks. The clear victory with quick goals from Lookman, Ederson, and De Ketelaere could give Atalanta a visible boost of confidence, even if their recent league record of three defeats and two draws remains alarming. Under Paolo Vanoli, Fiorentina have only managed draws so far and recently lost 0-1 to AEK Athens, with two of their own goals disallowed after VAR checks.
Atalanta’s focus is primarily on Lookman, Ederson, and De Ketelaere as potential offensive threats, but the team needs more stability in defense to end its league crisis. Fiorentina relies on Edin Džeko in the center, but continues to suffer from a lack of punch and coordination problems at the back. In the last five direct encounters, Fiorentina had a slight edge with three wins, with all games producing plenty of goals and both sides finding the net. Nevertheless, bookmakers rate Atalanta as the slight favorites to win with a probability of around 58% due to their home advantage and strong international performance, so a narrow home win or a draw are considered the most likely outcomes, with goals on both sides also likely.
- Venue: Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo
- Date and time: November 30, 2025, 6:00 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (matchday 13)
The tip Atalanta to win at odds of 1.7 looks attractive given recent impressions, as Atalanta showed great offensive power, especially in the second half of their 3-0 win in Frankfurt with Lookman, Éderson, and De Ketelaere. Fiorentina travels to Bergamo without a league win and has conceded goals in each of its last five games, often before halftime, which makes a bet on over 2.5 goals even more interesting. Under coach Palladino, Atalanta is expected to be more daring offensively, and the return of Scamacca increases the team’s striking power. It also seems plausible that Atalanta will lead at halftime, as Fiorentina has conceded a goal before the break in around 80% of its recent games, and Atalanta’s creative, fast attackers offer good chances for an early goal.
Atalanta Form & Record Check
Atalanta is currently experiencing something of a parallel reality. In the Champions League, things are looking much more stable with two wins from their last two games, including a 3-0 win in Frankfurt, while in Serie A, three consecutive defeats, including a 3-1 loss to Napoli and a 3-0 defeat to Sassuolo, clearly represent a crisis. The team is only 13th in the table with 13 points, just one point above the relegation zone.
Raffaele Palladino took over from Ivan Juric just over a week ago. His debut in Naples was sobering, with a 3-0 halftime score, but after the break, the team showed more courage and reduced the deficit with a spectacular goal from Scamacca, before following up with a clear Champions League victory in Frankfurt, where Lookman, Ederson, and De Ketelaere scored within five minutes.
What is striking is the weak start to many games. Atalanta has never taken the lead before the break in its last five games and clearly needs time to find its way into the game, lacking competence in the first half. Palladino is calling for more ease and vertical play, but the team has so far lacked punch in the league. In the short term, clearer guidelines for the early stages of the game would be useful, such as more aggression in certain pressing zones, faster vertical passes after winning the ball, or more targeted set pieces, so that the team does not fall behind again in the first 20 to 30 minutes. Small personnel adjustments are also conceivable, such as a more aggressive defensive midfielder or a faster winger in the starting lineup. In the long term, Palladino must also find the balance between European success and consistency in the league, manage rotation in a measured way, and stabilize the team, especially in the early stages of games.
Coach Palladino is expected to stick with a 3-4-2-1 formation after the convincing 3-0 win in Frankfurt. Carnesecchi will be in goal. Kossounou, Hien, and Djimsiti will form the back three, with Bellanova on the right and Zalewski on the left of the back four. In front of them, De Roon and Éderson will play in the double six in the center. In the attacking midfield, De Ketelaere and Lookman will provide creativity and finishing power as playmakers behind lone striker Scamacca, who is clearly intended to be the main target in attack. Palladino will continue to be without Scalvini, while Bakker is out long term. Depending on how the game goes, Samardžić or Pašalić could come off the bench to provide fresh impetus, but this formation has generally proven itself recently.
Florence Form & Record Check
The situation at Fiorentina is serious, with the club having collected only six points and sitting in 19th place. Since Paolo Vanoli took over, the team is still waiting for its first win of the season in Serie A and has failed to pick up three points in its last five competitive games. There are significant weaknesses in defense, with the team conceding at least one goal in each of the last five games, often in the first half. The team’s defensive movement and behavior after losing possession appear vulnerable across all competitions.
Concrete results underscore this: a 0-1 home defeat to Lecce, a 1-2 loss in Mainz, and draws of 2-2 against Genoa and 1-1 against Juventus. In the Conference League clash with AEK Athens, which ended in a 0-1 defeat, luck was not on the Viola’s side either, with two of their own goals disallowed after VAR decisions and the goal conceded resulting from a mistake by Mandragora. On a positive note, the team showed morale against Juventus and Mandragora scored a spectacular equalizer after the break, but individual moments of brilliance do little to change the precarious overall situation, especially as injury problems such as Dodo’s muscle complaints make squad planning even more difficult. In the short term, a more stable defensive structure with clearer roles in pressing and more compact spacing between midfield and defense, intensive set-piece training in both directions, more structured periods of possession to avoid unnecessary turnovers in the final third, and targeted load management and rehabilitation for players with muscular problems are key levers to defuse the situation.
Coach Paolo Vanoli is expected to use his preferred back three in a 3-5-2 formation. De Gea will be in goal. Pongracic, Comuzzo, and Ranieri are expected to form the back three. Dodo, whose participation is slightly questionable due to muscle problems, and Parisi will provide width on the flanks. The central midfield will consist of Mandragora, who is considered a sure starter after his dream goal against Juventus, Fortini, and Ndour. Up front, Gudmundsson and Dzeko are expected to provide the attacking threat. Tariq Lamptey is out for months after cruciate ligament surgery, while Gosens and other options are available on the bench. The lineup remains a prediction, as Vanoli may make tactical changes or personnel surprises before kickoff.
Atalanta – Florence Head-to-head comparison & statistics
In a direct comparison of the last five encounters, Fiorentina has a slight advantage, with three wins to Atalanta’s two, and no draws during this period. Fiorentina scored in all five games, meaning Atalanta conceded at least one goal in each of these matches. Fiorentina won the most recent game in March 2025 1-0 in Bergamo. In the 2024 Coppa Italia semi-final, Florence initially won the first leg 1-0, before Atalanta won the second leg 4-1 to advance to the final. In the league games of the 2024/2025 season, Atalanta won 3-2 against Florence in September 2024, while in June 2024, Florence won 3-2 against Atalanta. The trend shows that games are often decided early, with less than two goals scored in the second half in four of the last five encounters.
