A Monday evening at the Olympic Stadium in Turin, two teams with their sights set on Europe, yet with noticeably different prospects: Como arrives as a strong, ambitious team, while Turin struggles with personnel problems and a sluggish offense. The betting market logically sees Como as slight favorites, which is easily explained by the hosts’ recent form and the absences in their squad.
In the league, Turin comes into the game on the back of two consecutive wins, following 0-0 draws against Lecce and Juventus in the derby. The streak underscores the team’s defensive stability, but offensively, the team continues to struggle to score goals consistently. The absence of Ilić in midfield and Simeone in attack weighs heavily. Nikola Vlašić, on the other hand, is in good form and has publicly declared Europe as his goal, which clearly raises the bar for those around him.
Como has lost some momentum after a strong start to the season, with their most recent matches against Napoli and Cagliari ending in 0-0 draws. The absence of Diao, who suffered a thigh injury while playing for Senegal, has noticeably weakened the offense. Nevertheless, Como brings a lot of quality and technical class to the pitch with players such as Nico Paz, Morata, and Caqueret, which is particularly evident when they have possession of the ball.
The previous direct encounters this season have all been low-scoring, with the home team winning 1-0 in each case and no goals scored before half-time in any of the games. Both teams often opt for a cautious, structured approach, which again points to a close, defensive game.
Overall, Como currently has the slight edge. The visitors have the better record and the higher individual quality, while Turin remains limited offensively due to injuries. A duel with few goals is to be expected, with Como having a slight advantage. Obvious betting options from the market’s point of view are under 2.5 goals or a narrow away win or a draw, represented by the double chance X2.
Regardless of the assessment, always bet responsibly. Short-term absences or tactical adjustments can significantly change the forecast, so the official starting lineups should be checked again shortly before kickoff.
- Venue: Stadio Olimpico di Torino, Turin
- Date and time: November 24, 2025, 6:30 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 12)
1) Como to win (higher risk): Despite Diao’s absence, Como are in good form and have won their last two games by two goals each. Under Cesc Fàbregas, the team is tactically very mature, while Turin are losing their punch without the creative Ilić. The market odds are around 2.20, which is an attractive but clearly risky single bet for those who want to focus on returns.
2) Under 2.5 goals (lower risk): Both teams are defensively stable. Turin has not conceded a goal after the break in its last five games, and around 80% of Como’s recent games have remained under 2.5 goals. Low-scoring performances such as the 0-0 draw against Juventus and in Bologna support this prediction, making this a rather conservative bet.
3) Double chance X2 (hedge, moderate risk): Due to Como’s stability and Turin’s offensive problems without Ilić, the double chance of a draw or away win, i.e. X2, is attractive. The market sees the draw as having a probability of around 31% (odds of around 3.25), which means that X2 significantly reduces the risk of loss compared to a pure “Como wins” bet.
4) Recommendation for betting: Depending on your risk profile, you can stagger your bets, for example, placing a smaller amount on “Como wins” as a speculative top bet, a larger amount on under 2.5 goals as your core bet, and a moderate amount on X2 for additional hedging.
Turin form & record check
Turin has shown clear stability in its last five league games. The team is unbeaten, with wins against Genoa (2-1) and Napoli (1-0) as well as draws, including a 0-0 draw in the derby against Juventus, a 2-2 draw against Pisa, and another 0-0 draw in Bologna. This run highlights the team’s defensive strength, but at the same time reveals a lack of attacking power.
Turin is in 12th place in the table with 14 points, level on points with Cremonese and just one point ahead of Atalanta. This is below the expectations set before the season, especially as Nikola Vlašić had openly spoken of European ambitions. The low goal average in the last five games is striking, especially after the break, with around 80% of these games ending with less than 1.5 goals in the second half.
However, clear progress can be seen defensively. Goalkeeper Alberto Paleari pointed out that the 0-5 opening game against Inter had brought the team closer together. Since that turning point, Turin has not conceded a goal in the second half. However, this is offset by the absences of Ivan Ilić and Giovanni Simeone, who would provide important impetus in midfield and up front and are now missing.
Kristjan Asllani, on loan from Inter, is increasingly becoming a source of hope in the center, and from today’s perspective, the purchase option of €12 million is likely to be exercised. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen whether his creativity alone will be enough to strike a balance between defensive stability and greater goal-scoring threat.
This presents coach Marco Baroni with a clear task. He needs to work on the offensive structure, for example by integrating the central strikers better, using the wings more variably, and making bolder personnel or system decisions in the second half depending on the situation. The goal is to convert the solid defensive foundation into more wins and thus more points.
Coach Marco Baroni is likely to stick with the established 3-5-2 formation, with Paleari expected to be the clear number one in goal.
Ismajli, Maripán, and Coco are expected to form the back three, with Pedersen and Lazaro providing width, pace, and support going forward on the wings.
In central midfield, Kristjan Asllani replaces the injured Ivan Ilić, who is out with knee problems. Together with Casadei and Vlašić, he is expected to structure the game in the center and provide offensive impetus.
Adams and Ngonge are expected to form the two strikers in attack. Giovanni Simeone is still out with a thigh injury, which limits the alternatives in the center of the attack.
Como Form & Record Check
Como are in impressive early form and are unbeaten in their last five league games, with two wins and three draws. The team currently sits in 7th place with 18 points, underlining their ambition to get involved in the battle for European places. The positive results go hand in hand with clear defensive stability, especially after the break, with Como not conceding a goal in the second half in their last five games.
Offensively, however, there has been a recent slump. The two goalless draws against Napoli and Cagliari showed that the momentum has been lost somewhat after strong performances, including a 2-0 win against Juventus and a 3-1 win against Verona. Four of the last five games have ended with under 2.5 goals, which suggests a very controlled, sometimes perhaps overly cautious style of play.
The personnel situation exacerbates this problem. Diao is out until December with a thigh injury, Sergi Roberto is missing due to muscle problems, and defenders Dossena and Goldaniga are also unavailable for the long term. In addition, Smolčić and Perrone are suspended or at risk of receiving a yellow card, which further limits coach Cesc Fàbregas’ tactical options.
As a result, Como are very solid defensively, but have creative problems in attack and several absences that could make it difficult to achieve their European ambitions. Fàbregas is challenged to rotate his personnel, change the controlled possession game depending on the situation, and find additional solutions in the final third in order to develop more goal-scoring threat again.
Butez is expected to start in goal, with a back four of Smolcic, Diego Carlos, Ramón, and Valle in front of him, although Smolcic goes into the game on a yellow card.
Perrone and Caqueret are expected to play as a double six in defensive midfield, although Perrone is also on a yellow card and will have to be careful in his tackling.
In the attacking trio, Paz is considered the central creative force, flanked by Addai and Rodríguez, while Da Cunha is an alternative for the wing positions. Morata is expected to start up front.
It is already certain that Diao will be out after his thigh injury with Senegal, as will Sergi Roberto, Dossena, and Goldaniga. The above lineup is a prediction based on current reports; as usual, coach Cesc Fàbregas will announce the final starting lineup shortly before kickoff.
Turin – Como Head-to-Head Comparison & Statistics
The section originally intended for this space offered various forms of support, from a brief summary to a more detailed tactical analysis and a look at statistics and trends, to assessments of betting and goal props, a press or text template, and translation and stylistic revision.
In the present text, these perspectives are essentially already bundled together. The match between Turin and Como is summarized, analyzed tactically and statistically, and classified with a view to possible betting markets, so that the essential head-to-head aspects are covered from the aforementioned perspectives.
