A promoted team challenging Real Madrid and performing well above expectations—that’s the situation ahead of the clash in Elche. The hosts are surprisingly stable in eleventh place with only three defeats in twelve games, despite limited resources and rather modest season goals, and present themselves as an unpleasantly compact opponent.
Real Madrid travel as league leaders and want to defend their three-point lead over Barcelona after only managing a goalless draw in Vallecas. The personnel situation is particularly delicate in defense, with Militão out with a thigh injury, Rüdiger’s availability still uncertain after a long break, and Carvajal out for the long term.
Despite being the clear favorites, caution is advised. Elche recently underlined their resilience and home strength with a 1-1 draw against Real Sociedad and can cause problems with their compact organization. The decisive factors will be how much stability Real can bring to the pitch despite the absences in defense and whether the offense can consistently capitalize on the chances that come their way.
- Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche
- Date and time: November 23, 2025, 9:00 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (Matchday 13)
From an analytical point of view, there are many indications that the game will be high-scoring, which is why over 2.5 goals is an interesting first recommendation. Mbappé leads the scoring charts with 13 goals, Real have scored at least once in each of their last three competitive games, and Elche have shown two extremes, conceding three goals in their last game in Barcelona, but scoring four of their own in the cup against Getafe. This combination of Real’s high individual quality and Elche’s ability to both score and concede goals supports a scenario with at least three goals.
The second recommendation targets the Both Teams to Score: Yes market. Real’s defense is weakened, with regulars Rüdiger, Militão, and Carvajal missing, which increases the likelihood of lapses in concentration. Elche showed with their 1-1 draw against Real Sociedad at home that the team can create chances even against strong opponents, so a Real goal combined with a goal from the hosts seems by no means unrealistic.
A third option is a hedging double chance on Elche or a draw. Despite the low odds on Real of around 1.4, there are arguments for value on the side of the home team or a draw, with reports of tensions in the Real squad surrounding Vinícius and Bellingham, the exhausting trip to Kazakhstan during the international break, and Elche’s solid season record with only three defeats in twelve league games, including recent points won at home.
These three recommendations are intertwined, with the offensive strength of both teams and the potential weaknesses in Real’s improvised defense combining to favor goal bets such as Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score: Yes, while the Double Chance on Elche or a draw remains a more defensive hedging option.
Elche CF Form & Record Check
Elche goes into this game on a solid footing, currently sitting in 11th place in the table with 15 points, level with Alavés and Rayo Vallecano. Their recent record of one win, two draws, and two losses from their last five league games seems mixed, but it fits a team that, under coach Eder Sarabia, focuses primarily on a compact basic formation.
Their defensive stability is particularly striking, especially after the break. In four of their last five games, they have conceded no more than one goal in the second half, as exemplified by the 0-0 draw against Athletic, the narrow 0-1 defeat at Espanyol, and the 1-3 loss in Barcelona, in which Elche kept up well at times. Offensively, however, the team remains too harmless, their conversion rate in the league is inconsistent, and the clear 4-0 victory in the Copa del Rey game against Los Garres is only of limited significance for the assessment of everyday league play.
One ray of hope is Rodrigo Mendoza, the 20-year-old who has already scored two goals in ten appearances, attracting the interest of bigger clubs. His development could be key to generating more creativity and determination in the final third. In the short term, Elche has the potential to establish itself in a secure mid-table position, provided that the defensive structure remains intact. However, for more consistent and better results, the team needs to improve its offensive effectiveness, from its presence in the penalty area to its counterattacking and small tactical variations in its attacking play.
Coach Eder Sarabia is likely to start with his tried-and-tested 4-1-4-1 system, with Dituro in goal. The back four is likely to consist of Núñez at right-back, Affengruber and Chust in central defense, and Pedrosa on the left, with Redondo playing as the lone defensive midfielder and playmaker in the defensive midfield.
Mendoza and Aguado will form the duo in the center, with Mendoza, who is already being watched by several top clubs, providing additional creative impetus. Diangana will play on the right wing and Josan on the left, supporting lone striker Rodríguez in the center of the attack. Mir and Valera are two offensive alternatives on the bench. As things stand, there are no injuries or suspensions, so Sarabia can field his regular starting lineup.
Real Form & Record Check
Real Madrid leads the table with 31 points and holds a three-point lead over Barcelona. However, a strong run of victories, including a 4-0 win over Valencia, a 2-1 win in El Clásico, and a 1-0 win over Juventus, was followed by a slight setback, with a 1-0 defeat in Liverpool and a goalless 0-0 draw at Rayo Vallecano interrupting the flow and costing additional points.
Interestingly, recent statistics show a noticeable trend in the second halves. In the last five games, no more than 1.5 goals were scored after the break, while Real remained unbeaten at halftime during this phase. This speaks for stable starts to games, but also points to a more cautious approach or a lack of punch after the break.
In terms of personnel, the defense is the biggest area of concern, with Rüdiger, Militão, and Carvajal all out. Tchouaméni could return soon after his thigh problems and even help out in defense if necessary, while Mastantuono will be out for longer. Kylian Mbappé is particularly impressive in attack, leading the scoring charts with 13 league goals. Overall, the attack is strong, but the absences in defense make the team vulnerable. Xabi Alonso is therefore faced with the task of defending the lead in La Liga and securing direct qualification for the round of 16 in the Champions League through rotation, tactical adjustments, and clever personnel solutions.
Real Madrid are expected to line up in their usual 4-2-3-1 formation in Elche, but personnel problems in defense are forcing Xabi Alonso to improvise. Militão, Rüdiger, and Carvajal are all missing from central defense, which is why the young Asencio is likely to start alongside Alaba. There is also cautious optimism that Tchouaméni will return to training after his injury and, if necessary, can even help out as a central defender.
The offensive structure is clear, with Kylian Mbappé likely to start at center forward, flanked by Vinícius and Rodrygo on the wings. Behind them, Jude Bellingham will pull the strings as playmaker, while Camavinga and Valverde will form the double six, providing cover and linking up with the forwards. How exactly Alonso manages the workload in this phase remains an important factor, with possible rotation or minor tactical adjustments depending on whether injured players are fit in time.
Elche CF – Real Head-to-head & Statistics
The head-to-head record clearly favors Real Madrid, with the Royals celebrating four wins and one draw in their last five meetings. Elche has been waiting for a win against Real since at least 2021, with the 4-0 defeat in February 2023 and the 3-0 defeat in Elche in October 2022 being particularly clear examples.
All five games produced at least three goals, with Real scoring in every encounter and Elche conceding in every game. In the last three encounters, both teams scored goals, which suggests relatively open games with offensive action from both sides. It is also striking that in four of the five games, the first half remained rather low-scoring, with less than two goals, and the clearer decisions were usually made after the break, when Real was able to show its individual class.
This leads to the expectation of another dominant Real performance in the upcoming game, especially in the second half. Based on history, games with at least three goals seem more likely, as do goals from both teams, even if Real has a significantly higher probability of winning. In terms of betting, the most likely scenario is a Real Madrid win, possibly even a game in which Real wins despite initially falling behind. Markets such as Over 2.5 goals or Both teams to score: Yes are obvious options. Those who expect a more defensive game could consider hedging with a Draw No Bet on Real.
