Two very different stories collide at Elland Road today: Leeds are under massive pressure in the relegation battle, while Aston Villa come into the game on the back of a string of successes and brimming with confidence. Nevertheless, the bookmakers rate the match as surprisingly close, which shows that Leeds remain dangerous at home, even if Villa are slight favorites.
Leeds are in 16th place with 11 points and are in the midst of a battle to avoid relegation. Four defeats in their last five games and the recent 3-1 loss to Nottingham Forest have highlighted their offensive problems, especially in terms of creativity and finishing. Aston Villa are in strong form in 6th place, with six wins from their last seven league games speaking for themselves. The team looks defensively stable and efficient, even if the underlying stats suggest a certain degree of overperformance with a weak xG ratio and many long-range goals.
Tactically, Leeds can be expected to focus on offensive pressure and high pressing at home in order to force open spaces. However, their biggest weakness remains their inability to convert chances in the penalty area. Villa are much more organized, make consistent use of transitions and set pieces, and score a surprising number of goals from outside the box. This makes the team less dependent on clear-cut chances in the box.
For Leeds, the creative players in the center and on the wings, as well as an efficient striker, are crucial, because without reliable finishing, the team remains harmless. At Aston Villa, the opponents’ attention is focused primarily on the creative wing players and set-piece specialists. Physicality, strength in one-on-one situations, and improved defensive organization are additional factors.
In a direct comparison, recent history clearly favors Villa. Leeds has not won any of the last five matches, with Aston Villa winning three of them. Many of these encounters were low-scoring at halftime, with the decisions often coming after the break, indicating late goals or successful tactical adjustments.
From an analytical point of view, a narrow away win or a close draw is most likely. It should be kept in mind that Leeds is unpredictable at home, so high odds on a home win are not entirely unfounded. Overall, Villa goes into this game as the slight favorite and the team in better form, but there are many indications that it will be a close, hard-fought duel with late decisions, in which Leeds will need courage and efficiency to end its losing streak.
- Venue: Elland Road, Leeds
- Date and time: 11/23/2025, 3:00 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 12)
The betting markets see Aston Villa as slight favorites with odds of 2.5, and their current form supports this assessment. Villa has won five of its last six league games and conceded only 10 goals in 11 games during this period. Leeds, on the other hand, is in deep crisis with four defeats in its last five league games and is showing significant problems both offensively and defensively.
Several statistical indicators point to an away win for Villa and over 1.5 goals. Leeds has conceded at least two goals in each of its last five games, while Villa regularly creates scoring chances from distance, with seven of its 13 goals this season coming from outside the penalty area. It is also noteworthy that Leeds has not scored after the break in its last five home games, which increases the likelihood that Villa will control or even decide the game in the closing stages.
The odds of 3.3 for a draw seem relatively high given the clear difference in form. At the same time, possible absences at Aston Villa must be taken into account, especially Cash, Konsa, and Onana. Despite these uncertainties, an away win remains a solid betting option, possibly combined with over 1.5 goals as additional insurance.
Conclusion: The primary recommendation is Aston Villa to win away. A secondary option is Aston Villa to win in combination with over 1.5 goals. The usual risk warning applies here: injuries and last-minute lineup changes can shift the probabilities, so bets should be chosen with caution.
Leeds form & record check
Leeds are deep in the relegation zone. With 11 points from 11 games, the team is in 16th place and shares the relegation zone with Fulham on equal points, with Burnley just one point behind. Only one win from their last five league games and a goal difference of minus 10 underline their current negative run.
A striking pattern has emerged in recent weeks. In each of their last five games, Leeds have conceded at least one goal, always after the break. They have lost every second half without scoring a goal of their own after the break. This suggests a lack of fitness or that coach Daniel Farke’s tactical adjustments at half-time have not had the desired effect so far.
The 1-3 defeat at Nottingham Forest is a prime example of these problems. Leeds took an early lead through Nmecha, but immediately conceded the equalizer. After the break, the defense collapsed again, with Gibbs-White scoring in the 68th minute, followed by a converted penalty. Substitutes Calvert-Lewin, Piroe, and James were unable to turn the game around, Longstaff was shown a yellow card, and the personnel changes had no effect.
The situation is just as sobering in attack. Although there have been more than 2.5 goals in four of the last five games, Leeds has hardly benefited from this. Nmecha, Okafor, and Rodon have each scored two goals, but overall, the attack remains too harmless. To make matters worse, there are injury problems, with Bornauw and Gnonto missing or at least carrying knocks, which puts additional strain on an already thin squad.
In the short term, Farke must above all secure leads or close scores after the break. Possible adjustments include improving fitness, a more stable midfield after the break, earlier substitutions for more defensive balance, and more focused work on set pieces. In the medium term, the Young Whites need more punch in attack and significantly more consistency in defense to escape the growing pressure of relegation.
Leeds are likely to start with a 4-3-3 system at their home ground, Elland Road. Bijol and Rodon are expected to play in central defense, with a midfield trio of Ampadu, Longstaff, and Stach likely to form the central line. In attack, Daniel Farke is likely to rely on a mobile triangle of Aaronson, Nmecha, and Okafor, who will be expected to both go deep and move between the lines. Bornauw and Gnonto are slightly injured but should be available on the bench.
In the original context of this lineup, various support options were mentioned around the presentation of the starting eleven, such as a precise translation into English, a very short summary or a tweet, a list of the starting eleven, substitutes, and formation in list form, a compact tactical analysis of this 4-3-3 structure, an assessment of injuries and availability of players such as Bornauw and Gnonto, and other individually desired formats. Finally, the question was which of these options was specifically desired.
Aston Villa Form & Record Check
Aston Villa is in strong form in the Premier League. Three wins from the last four league games and a total of 18 points currently put them in sixth place. On the international stage, however, things have not gone so well, including a 1-2 defeat at Go Ahead Eagles. What is striking is their high efficiency in front of goal, with many goals coming from distance or set pieces, while the xG model of 10.41 suggests a certain degree of overperformance. Defensively, the team has become much more stable under Unai Emery, conceding only 10 goals in 11 games.
Under Unai Emery, Aston Villa are expected to play a 4-2-3-1 formation again against Leeds, even if there are still some question marks after the international break. A quartet of players are expected to be fit in time, with the focus particularly on center back Konsa, who remained in England due to calf problems and was sent to London for further examination, but still has a chance of playing.
Options in central midfield are slightly limited. Barkley is not eligible to play in European competition as he was not registered for the Europa League, which affects his role in overall workload management. Tielemans is returning step by step after his injury and has only had limited playing time with the Belgian national team so far. Kamara and Onana are therefore expected to start in the center, while Rogers, Buendía, and McGinn are likely to play in the attacking trio behind striker Watkins.
Leeds – Aston Villa Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The recent head-to-head record clearly favors Aston Villa. In the last five meetings between the two clubs, Leeds have not won, while Villa have recorded three wins and two draws, remaining undefeated. The last duel dates back to January 2023 and ended in a 2-1 win for Aston Villa in the Premier League.
Leeds conceded at least one goal in each of these games, while Aston Villa scored in all three of their most recent encounters with Leeds. Leeds have never led at halftime during this period, which could play a role both psychologically and tactically. The games between the two teams have been very different: a 3-0 defeat for Leeds in front of their home crowd in March 2022, a 0-0 draw in October and a spectacular 3-3 draw in February show that Leeds can keep up at times, but overall they lack the punch to beat Villa.
Another striking feature is the tendency for late decisions. In four of the last five direct duels, a maximum of 1.5 goals were scored by halftime, with the majority of goals coming after the break. Overall, 80% of these games remained below 3.5 goals, making the encounters rather moderate in terms of goals scored.
