Real Sociedad welcomes Rayo Vallecano to the Reale Arena on Sunday in a basement battle that both teams desperately need to win. With five points each, the Donostiarras are in 18th place and the visitors in 16th, with the hosts considered clear favorites despite their disappointing season record. Particularly interesting: according to Understat models, Real Sociedad should actually have three to four more points to their name, making them the second most unlucky team in the league in terms of points earned. Rayo Vallecano, of all teams, tops this inglorious statistic. The last meeting seven months ago ended 2-2 in Vallecas, underlining the goal-rich nature of this fixture: at least three goals have been scored in each of the last five encounters. Both teams come into the game with mixed feelings, with Real Sociedad suffering a 2-1 defeat at Barcelona, while Rayo gained new confidence after their successful Conference League debut against Shkendija.
- Venue: Reale Arena, San Sebastian
- Date and time: October 5, 2025, 6:30 p.m.
- Competition: Primera División (Matchday 8)
The tip for under 1.5 goals in the first half seems particularly solid, as both teams are known for slow starts. Real Sociedad has remained scoreless at halftime in four of its last five league games, while Rayo averages only 0.4 goals before the break on the road. These figures underscore why the betting offer of around 1.33 offers real value, especially since neither team has led at halftime this season. The prediction for Both Teams to Score: Yes at odds of 1.95 is supported by the defensive problems of both teams. Real Sociedad have conceded in four consecutive games, while Rayo have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of their last five encounters. Kubo’s return alongside Oyarzabal, who has already been involved in three goals, will be particularly interesting, while Rayo’s defense has been weakened by the absence of defensive midfielder Nteka. The draw at 3.6 may seem riskier, but the statistics suggest a balanced contest: Sociedad’s last three defeats have all been by a single goal, as have Rayo’s three league defeats. The betting market sees Real Sociedad as clear favorites at 2.05, but analysis shows two nervous teams in a critical phase who may put the fear of defeat above the will to win.
Real Sociedad Form & Record Check
Real Sociedad is in a serious crisis and is going through one of its most difficult phases in recent years. With only five points from seven games, the team is in 18th place in the table and has already suffered three consecutive defeats. The record for the last five games is alarming: only one win against Mallorca and four defeats. Particularly alarming is the defense, which has conceded goals in each of the last three games. They lost 2-1 to Barcelona, even though Odriozola gave them an early lead. The game followed a typical pattern: Real Sociedad takes an early lead but is unable to hold on to it and ends up conceding the decisive goals. The numbers speak for themselves. Statistical models see Realidad as the second-worst team in the league in terms of points earned relative to performance. With an estimated 8.67 points, they should have earned three to four more points. The problem lies in a lack of efficiency in front of goal, where good play is not converted into results. Real Sociedad shares the same predicament with Celta Vigo and Mallorca, who are level on points. The gap to their direct rivals at the bottom of the table is minimal, which increases the pressure on every single point. Coach Sergio Francisco urgently needs to turn things around before the downward spiral continues.
Real Sociedad are likely to line up in their usual 4-1-4-1 formation, even though Sergio Francisco continues to be plagued by personnel problems. The absence of Orri Óskarsson and Jon Martín is forcing the coach to make adjustments, with Oyarzabal seemingly set to start up front. In defense, Odriozola could be rewarded for his goal against Barcelona and start on the right. Zubeldia and Caleta-Car are expected to form the central defense, while Muñoz will defend on the left. Gorrotxategi is likely to play as a defensive midfielder in front of the defense. The offense could be interesting. Kubo, Turrientes, Barrenetxea, and Guedes could form the midfield quartet, although Guedes would be a somewhat surprising choice for this position. Brais Méndez and Soler are waiting on the bench as alternatives and could well come into the game.
Rayo Form & Record Check
Rayo Vallecano is going through a mixed period that overshadows its European debut but does not hide its league problems. Wednesday’s 2-0 win over Shkendija was a historic moment for Vallecas and showed the side we expect to see from this team. Unai López and Fran Pérez made sure of the result early on, and the Macedonian opponents were virtually unable to get in front of goal. In La Liga, however, the reality is quite different. Three defeats in the last four league games speak for themselves, with the 1-0 home defeat to Sevilla particularly bitter. Iñigo Pérez’s team dominated for long periods but failed to capitalize on their chances and conceded the decisive goal in the 89th minute through Akor Adams. Their 16th place in the table with five points belies the balance of the league. Levante are just above them, also on five points, and only a few points separate Rayo from higher places. However, their defensive vulnerability is a cause for concern: they have conceded goals in four of their last five league games, often in the second half. Personnel problems are exacerbated by the absence of Randy Nteka due to knee problems, while his return remains uncertain. Added to this was the curious situation that only 21 instead of 25 players could be registered for the Conference League because the club lacks the necessary home-grown players.
Coach Iñigo Pérez is likely to stick with his tried-and-tested 4-2-3-1 formation after the team celebrated a convincing 2-0 win against Shkëndija in the Conference League. Batalla will be between the posts, while Balliu, Lejeune, Vertrouwd, and Espino are likely to feature in defense. In midfield, the duo of Gumbau and Unai López could form the control center. López was the match winner against the North Macedonians, scoring the opening goal. Fran Pérez, Trejo, and Álvaro García are set to form the attacking trio, with all three proving their class in their European Cup debut. Striker Camello will lead the attack. Randy Nteka is still out with a knee injury and is not available to the coach. This is, of course, a prediction; the final line-up will only be announced shortly before kick-off.
H2H Real Sociedad – Rayo Head-to-head & statistics
The last five encounters between Real Sociedad and Rayo Vallecano show an interesting pattern of evenly matched games. There have been three draws and one win for each team, with both sides celebrating their victories at their own stadiums. The most recent encounter in March 2025 ended in a 2-2 draw away in Vallecas, which was already the third draw in this head-to-head record. Previously, Real Sociedad had won 3-1 in the Copa del Rey round of 16 in January 2025, knocking Rayo out of the cup competition. Particularly striking is the series of three consecutive draws at halftime. Both teams seem to have regularly neutralized each other in the first half, with the decisions usually being made after the break. This consistency in the halftime score points to tactically dominated duels. These encounters are always high-scoring. In four of the last five games, at least three goals were scored, with only the 0-0 draw in January 2024 being a goalless exception. Both teams scored regularly, which suggests offensively oriented games in which the defense did not always perform solidly.
