After a spectacular 4-1 win in Augsburg, where Mainz scored two more goals despite Dominik Kohr’s yellow-red card, FSV welcomes the clear favorites Borussia Dortmund to the MEWA Arena on matchday 5 of the Bundesliga. The 05ers have thus secured their first win of the season and are coming into the game with confidence. Fabio Silva could be in the squad for the first time for the visitors after his adductor problems appear to have subsided. Coach Niko Kovac will decide after Friday’s training session whether the Portuguese player is ready after weeks on the sidelines. BVB are in second place with ten out of a possible twelve points and are looking much more stable under their new coach than they did last season. The recent history between the two teams promises excitement: in the last five Bundesliga encounters, both teams have always scored, and at least two goals have been scored in each first half. Mainz has scored surprisingly often, losing only one of its last five encounters with BVB.
- Venue: MEWA ARENA, Mainz
- Date and time: September 27, 2025, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 5)
Mainz form & record check
After four matchdays, the Rheinhessen are in mixed form, although their recent performance in Augsburg gives cause for hope. In their clear 4-1 victory five days ago, the team showed remarkable morale and did not let Dominik Kohr’s yellow-red card throw them off course. It was when they were down to ten men that Mainz played their best football, scoring two more goals to round off a convincing performance. However, they had suffered two bitter setbacks prior to that. The 0-1 defeat to Cologne on the opening day of the season and the narrow defeat to Leipzig showed that Bo Henriksen is still searching for the ideal balance. The draw in Wolfsburg was a typical stalemate without any major highlights, but the improvement in performance in Augsburg is encouraging. A problematic pattern is emerging in defense: Mainz have conceded at least one goal in all of their Bundesliga games so far. This consistency is a cause for concern, even though the offense has looked much livelier recently. Injury worries surrounding Jae-sung Lee and Benedict Hollerbach are significantly limiting Henriksen’s options, while Anthony Caci will be out until the end of the year.
Bo Henriksen is likely to stick with his tried-and-tested 3-4-2-1 formation, which proved convincing in the 4-1 win in Augsburg despite Kohr’s yellow-red card. In defense, da Costa, Hanche-Olsen, and Kohr could form the back three, with Kohr available again after his suspension. The personnel situation in attack is problematic. Hollerbach and Jae-sung Lee are two important players who are out with injuries, and Caci is also missing with a thigh injury on the left wing. Mwene could therefore play at left back, while Widmer is likely to play on the right. Sano and Amiri are set to start in the center, while Sieb could lead the line up front with Nebel and Nordin behind him.
Dortmund form & record check
Niko Kovac has posted impressive numbers since taking over at Borussia Dortmund: ten points from the first four Bundesliga games is the best start of any BVB coach in the club’s history. The Black and Yellows are unbeaten so far and deservedly sit in second place in the table. The Croatian has clearly solved the much-discussed mentality issue. The statistics from the last five games speak for themselves: Dortmund led at half-time in four of the five halves and did not concede any goals during this phase. The team scored at least once in every game, which speaks for a certain offensive stability. However, a pattern is also emerging: Dortmund tend not to build on their leads in the second half. The recent 1-0 win against Wolfsburg was symptomatic of this development. Adeyemi’s powerful long-range shot after 20 minutes, perfectly set up by Ryerson, was ultimately enough to secure the victory. The team seemed a little too passive after the break and allowed the visitors to create chances. The fact that Wolfsburg failed to capitalize on these was also due to their own lack of finishing. The spectacular 4-4 draw at Juventus Turin showed both sides of the new BVB: brilliant in attack with some outstanding combinations at times, but still vulnerable in defense at crucial moments. The fact that they squandered a 4-2 lead within a few minutes must have caused Kovac a headache. The coach will continue to be without several regulars: Can is out with adductor problems, while Duranville is sidelined with a shoulder injury.
Coach Niko Kovac will probably stick with his tried-and-tested 3-4-2-1 formation, which has given BVB so much stability recently. With Kobel in goal, a back three of Anton, Schlotterbeck, and Bensebaini is likely to feature, while Ryerson and Svensson could occupy the wide positions. Sabitzer and Nmecha are set to start in central midfield, especially as there are no important alternatives available. Emre Can is still out with adductor problems, while Duranville is struggling with an acromioclavicular joint injury. In attack, Beier could play alongside Adeyemi, with Guirassy leading the line as center forward. The bench will be interesting: Fabio Silva could be included in the squad for the first time after his injury break. Kovac had announced that he would decide after Friday’s training session whether the Portuguese player is ready. Jobe Bellingham is waiting for his big chance, but for now he is behind established players such as Brandt and Groß.
H2H Mainz – Dortmund Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The head-to-head matches in recent years paint a surprising picture. Mainz has won two of the last five encounters, while Dortmund has only emerged victorious once. BVB’s success came just a few months ago, when they won 3-1 in March 2025. The highest-scoring encounters took place in Mainz. In November 2024, the Rheinhessen won 3-1, and their 3-0 victory in May 2024 was even more convincing. These two home wins should give Mainz plenty of confidence for the upcoming match at the MEWA ARENA. The consistency of goals in these matches is remarkable. In all five encounters, at least two goals were scored, and in most cases significantly more. Both teams have scored regularly in the last five games, which suggests lively 90 minutes. One could almost speak of a home advantage, were it not for the two draws in Dortmund. These 1-1 and 2-2 draws from 2023 show that Mainz can certainly hold their own at Signal Iduna Park.
The over 2.5 goals tip at 1.6 seems particularly attractive considering that Mainz have conceded in every league game and are missing two important defensive players in Caci and Dal. Guirassy has already proven his scoring abilities and forms a dangerous partnership with Adeyemi that poses problems even for compact defenses. The clear away win at 2.1 reflects Dortmund’s current superiority, as Mainz have lost both home games in the league without scoring and will be without their most important playmaker, Jae-sung Lee, who is injured. The draw is generously priced at 3.7, although Mainz recently triumphed in Augsburg despite being a man down, proving that they are capable of spectacular performances. With Emre Can missing, Dortmund are also without an important stabilizing force in midfield, which could open up space for Mainz to make quick advances. The constellation makes it clear that, despite the visitors being clear favorites, various scenarios remain conceivable.
