The confident league leaders Bayern Munich welcome a struggling Werder Bremen on Friday evening, who are fighting for stability in 14th place with only four points. While Munich are flawless after four matchdays with twelve points and an impressive goal difference of plus 15, Bremen’s recent 0-3 home defeat to Freiburg, with a bizarre own goal by Karim Coulibaly, revealed the Hanseatic club’s current difficulties. Kane scored his second hat trick of the season in Bayern’s last game against Hoffenheim, but both teams are plagued by significant personnel problems: Bayern will have to do without Musiala, Davies, and the newly injured Urbig, while Bremen will have to replace eight players, including Weiser and Mbangula. The betting market sees the roles clearly defined and makes Bayern the extreme favorites with a probability of over 95%.
- Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich
- Date and time: 09/26/2025, 8:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 5)
Bayern form & record check
Bayern Munich are top of the table with a flawless record of four wins from four Bundesliga games and are in impressive early form. The Munich side were already leading at half-time in every game and scored at least four goals in each match. The recent 4-1 win in Hoffenheim once again underlined their offensive strength, with Kane shining with a hat trick, two of his goals coming from penalties. 17-year-old Karl was back in action and set up Kane’s first goal, with coach Kompany praising the youngster’s development but warning against too much pressure. The tense personnel situation in defense remains problematic: with Davies, Ito, Stanisic, and the injured Kim missing, key players are absent, and Urbig’s injury was the latest addition. Stanisic suffered a medial ligament injury against Chelsea after initially hoping to return quickly. The Champions League opener against Chelsea ended in a convincing 3-1 win, showing that Bayern are once again a serious contender on the international stage. However, with only a two-point lead over Dortmund, nothing has been decided in the league yet.
Bayern are likely to line up in their usual 4-2-3-1 formation, even though Vincent Kompany has some difficult personnel decisions to make. The injury list has grown again recently: in addition to the long-term absences of Davies, Ito, and Musiala, Urbig is now also out with a torn muscle fiber and Stanisic with a medial ligament injury in his knee. There could be some improvisation in defense. Guerreiro may be available after his abdominal muscle injury, otherwise Laimer is likely to switch from the right to the left side again. Kim is still questionable after his calf injury, which is why the central defense will probably consist of Tah and Upamecano. In attack, it looks like Karl could get another start after his convincing performances. The 17-year-old has clearly earned the trust of Kompany, who has emphasized that he will not put any pressure on the youngster. With Kane up front and Olise and Díaz on the wings, this would be a very promising offense.
Werder Form & Record Check
Werder Bremen is currently going through a difficult period, sitting in 14th place in the table with four points after four games, level on points with Mainz 05 and Hamburger SV. The recent 3-0 defeat to Freiburg once again exposed the team’s problems, with Coulibaly’s own goal in the 75th minute proving particularly bitter. Coach Horst Steffen defended the 18-year-old after the game and praised his commitment. Bremen has never had a draw at halftime in its last five games and has conceded in the second half in 80% of its recent games, regularly allowing over 2.5 goals in the closing stages. New signing Boniface is currently making headlines off the pitch with cryptic social media posts, while his sporting performances still leave something to be desired. After the Freiburg game, coach Steffen clearly criticized his positioning and his “too much everywhere.” With Wöber, Stark, Weiser, and Mbangula out due to injury, important regulars are missing, which could explain why Coulibaly may be in the starting lineup again despite his own goal, should Steffen not fall back on the experienced Pieper.
Werder Bremen are likely to line up in their usual 4-2-3-1 formation, even though coach Horst Steffen continues to struggle with considerable personnel problems. In defense, three important center backs are missing: Wöber, Stark, and Malatini. It could therefore well be that Pieper starts alongside Friedl in central defense after returning to the squad for the first time against Freiburg. Alternatively, the young Coulibaly could be given another chance, despite a few recent mishaps. Options on the wings are limited: Deman and Weiser are out for the long term, so Sugawara and Agu are likely to start. In midfield, Stage and Lynen are expected to form the central duo, while Schmid, Puertas, and Njinmah could play behind Grüll in attack. Boniface may not be in the starting lineup after his recent weaker performances.
H2H Bayern – Werder Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The last five meetings between Bayern Munich and Werder Bremen paint a clear picture of Munich’s dominance. Bayern have won four of the last five encounters, with Bremen only managing a surprise 1-0 win at the Allianz Arena in January 2024. Munich’s strength in the second half is particularly striking: in the last four matches since May 2023, Bayern have won the second half in each case. In the most recent encounter in February 2025, Munich won 3-0, and in September 2024 they had already won 5-0 in Bremen. An interesting pattern emerges in the course of the game: The first halves are usually low-scoring, with less than two goals scored at half-time in three of the last five games. After the break, Munich then turns up the heat, with Bayern scoring at least three goals in the second half in four of the last five encounters. Bremen has been waiting for a point against Munich since its surprise win in early 2024 and has conceded a total of eight goals in the last two matches without scoring itself.
While the betting markets rate Bayern as virtually unbeatable at 1.1, Munich are currently experiencing significant defensive problems, conceding goals in four of their last five games. The absence of Davies, Kim, and Stanisic is forcing Kompany to improvise in defense, which could open up opportunities for Bremen. Interestingly, 80% of Werder’s recent league games have seen over 2.5 goals, despite them being severely weakened in terms of personnel. Kane may be in good form with eight goals in his last four games, but Bayern have also looked more vulnerable at the back than the odds suggest. Our tip on “Both teams to score” at 1.8 benefits from this discrepancy between Bayern’s offensive class and their current defensive uncertainty. The second half could be particularly high-scoring, as Munich traditionally pick up the pace after the break and Werder have conceded goals after the break in four of their last five games. An outsider bet would be “Under 2.5 goals” at 4.9 if Kompany focuses on control in view of the injury crisis and the upcoming European Cup game and Bremen shows defensive organization.
